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The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 6 of 2019. Joe Nicely's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.
Hello again RotoBallers and NFL DFS fans! Thanks for joining me here at Break The Slate, a weekly article in which we try to pinpoint the best DraftKings plays available on the main slate. Week 5 was a wild one and the highest-scoring slate that I can ever remember. Let's dig in and find some more huge scores this week!
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 6.
Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, lets Break The Slate together!
DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 6 Picks
Matt Ryan - ATL @ ARI ($6,400)
It's getting hard to ignore my man Matty Ice. Ryan was featured in this article last week and came through with yet another huge outing against the Texans by racking up 35.9 DK points on the strength of 330 passing yards and 3 TDs. The Falcons QB has attempted the most passes in the league (222) and should once again put his arm to work against a Cards team that both runs and allows opponents to run tons of plays. Ryan has topped 300 passing yards in every game this season (300 passing yards is a three-point bonus on DraftKings), tossing 11 TDs along the way. His matchup in Week 6 is an elite one, as Arizona has allowed opposing QBs to throw for 1,420 yards and 12 TDs this season, while allowing the third-most DK points in the NFL to the quarterback position.
Kirk Cousins - PHI @ MIN ($5,200)
I admit it, I threw up in my mouth a little when I typed Kirk Cousins' name into the header. The Minnesota QB hasn't been DFS relevant this season thanks to Dalvin Cook's ability to keep this offense rolling, but we do find Cousins and the Vikes in a unique situation in their Week 6 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles, one of the NFL's true "funnel" defenses. Philly has allowed just 236 rushing yards to opposing RBs - the fewest in the league - but the Eagles have been routinely shredded through the air and have relinquished 1,443 yards and nine TDs to opposing QBs this season. So...we know Minnesota wants to run the ball, but it will be probably be difficult for them to find success on the ground against this rugged Philly front, which should eventually force the Vikes to the air. Cousins is coming off his best performance of the year in Week 5 against the Giants (22/27 for 306 YDS & 2 TDs) and the expected increase in volume combined with his dirt-cheap $5.2k price tag definitely puts him in the GPP conversation this week.
*SATURDAY UPDATE: I didn't forget Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson this week, I promise, but I assume that you guys know they are in play. I prefer Mahomes, as the KC defense has actually been fairly solid against the pass, but Watson reminded us of the type of upside he has in Week 5. Lamar Jackson has been relatively quiet lately (at least by his standards), but he gets a very good matchup against a Cincy team that struggled mightily with Kyler Murray's running ability last week. Speaking of Murray, he's 100% in consideration against an Atlanta defense that has yet to slow down anybody. Dak Prescott has been taking a beating in the media, but his specialty is looking amazing against inferior competition, so fire him up against the Jets!
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 6 Picks
Le'Veon Bell - DAL @ NYJ ($6,400)
You guys probably know by now that I'm a "pay up at running back" guy, but with no Christian McCaffery on the main slate and with elite options like Zeke Elliott, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara in tougher-than-I-like matchups, I'm going down the board at the RB position to Le'Veon Bell. Do you remember this guy? He was the best DFS option in the NFL a few years ago. Bell has been relatively quiet with his new team, but the Jets offense (and Bell specifically) should get a big boost this week with the return of QB Sam Darnold. Bell has only played one game with Darnold, tallying 60 yards on 17 carries and catching six of nine targets for 32 yards and a TD way back in Week 1, and we can expect his life to get a little bit easier with Darnold's return to the lineup. Dallas doesn't feel like a matchup we want to target, but the Cowboys were just dismantled by Aaron Jones last week and have allowed the second-most running back receptions in the NFL, which lines up well with Bell's role in this offense, as he's averaging eight targets per game out of the New York backfield.
Chris Carson - SEA @ CLE ($6,000)
I'm eager to target this banged up Cleveland Browns Defense this week. The Seahawks are a team that fundamentally wants to run the ball, which is quickly becoming a thing of the past in the NFL. Seattle has the third-most rushing attempts in the league (154) and their lead back Chris Carson is tied for the fifth-most attempts in the NFL at 94. Carson heads into this matchup with a healthy average of 4.0 yards per carry and is fresh off a game in which he carried the ball 27 times for 118 yards. Rashaad Penny is more of a nuisance than a legit concern at this point. There's an excellent chance that Carson once again totes the rock 20-plus times against this Browns defense that ranks 29th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry and was just shredded by the 49ers running back committee on Monday Night Football.
Carlos Hyde - HOU @ KC ($4,400)
It's tough to classify Hyde as a true "slate breaker", but the Texans back is an interesting way to get exposure to this HOU vs KC matchup that carries the highest projected point total on the main slate. While most of us expected Duke Johnson to see the majority of the ground work for Houston when the Texans pulled off a trade for him just before the season, it's actually been Hyde that has seen the lion's share of carries in this offense and he's looked surprisingly good through five games. He logged 21 carries last week against Atlanta and is set to face a Chiefs run defense that is 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry at 5.30. In a game where we can expect multiple touchdowns, it's not a stretch to envision Hyde 3 or 4x'ing his salary in this spot.
*SATURDAY UPDATE: Tons to process at the RB position, as there are lots of injury situations to monitor. Alvin Kamara didn't practice Friday and is listed as 'Questionable'. If Kamara can't go, Latavius Murray becomes a 'Plug & Play' option at just $3.7k. It appears as though David Johnson will suit up, but back injuries are scary. Todd Gurley is 'Doubtful' and not expected to play, which puts Malcolm Brown on the value play radar at $4.3k (though I would prefer to stick with Carlos Hyde for just $100 more in a better matchup at less ownership). There's been a lot of discussion about Washington's interim HC wanting to run the ball, which by default puts Adrian Peterson in the conversation this week against perhaps the worst defense in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 6 Picks
DeAndre Hopkins - HOU @ KC ($7,400)
I think it's fair to call Deandre Hopkins' season to this point a disappointment, considering he hasn't topped 100 yards receiving or caught a TD since Week 1. With target counts of 8/7/8/8 over his last four games, we know a breakout game is coming at some point. This game against the Chiefs that carries the highest projected point total on the slate is a great 'get right' spot for Nuk. Kansas City isn't as bad on paper as it's perceived to be by many fans, ranking middle-of-the-pack in the NFL against the pass. However, what the KC secondary lacks is a shutdown corner that's capable of shadowing Hopkins (which is something he's faced in multiple games this year and has restricted his production) and I look for the Texans stud receiver to post the type of game we've all been waiting for from him.
Stefon Diggs - PHI @ MIN ($5,900)
We've already touch on Kirk Cousins in this week's article, so you know what we're expecting in this game...Minnesota being forced to throw the ball more than they would really like. Stefon Diggs has been a topic of discussion over the past couple of weeks and his displeasure with Minnesota's offense has become common knowledge. All that aside, the guy is still a very explosive football player that can score from anywhere on the field. We haven't had a chance to see that upside very often this season, but this matchup against an Eagles Defense that has yielded the fourth-most DK points in the NFL to opposing wide receivers, while also allowing the fewest rushing yards in the league, could very well funnel the type of volume to Diggs that is needed to post a slate-breaking score.
Michael Gallup - DAL @ NYJ ($5,600)
After a two-week absence due to injury, Michael Gallup returned to the Cowboys lineup last week and picked up right where he left off. There was no easing Gallup back in, as he played 61 of Dallas' 71 offensive snaps en route to a 7/113/1 line. This week's matchup against the Jets doesn't stand out as a great one, but Gallup continues to be almost criminally underpriced on DraftKings at just $5.6k. The expected game environment against the Jets isn't exactly great, but Gallup has proven himself to be efficient by grabbing 20 of 29 targets for 339 yards and a TD in the three games he's been active.
*SATURDAY UPDATE: I wish we had more clarity on the KC wide receiver situation, as this Texans secondary is one we want to attack. As of now, Sammy Watkins looks very doubtful, with Tyreek Hill possibly returning. If Watkins is out as expected, you can give newcomer Byron Pringle a long look at just $3.5k, with Hill being a 'boom or bust' option if he suits up. I'm very interested in this ATL vs AZ game, with Julio Jones, Calvin Ridley, and Larry Fitzgerald all in play. I highlighted Stefon Diggs and Michael Gallup in this week's article, but their teammates (Amari Cooper & Adam Thielen) are also strong plays. Strange as it sounds, I'm interested in the Jacksonville passing attack this week (due to the Saints effectiveness against the run). DJ Chark is having a monster season and he has a ridiculously-reasonable $5.5k price tag, but I worry about him being shadowed by Marshon Lattimore (we don't know if that will happen). However, I have no concerns about Dede Westbrook's matchup against PJ Williams and his turnstile defensive technique. Sam Darnold is back for the Jets, and while the Cowboys pass defense is tough, it makes Robby Anderson and Jamison Crowder at least "worth a look" at just $4k.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 6 Picks
Zach Ertz - PHI @ MIN ($5,400)
This Minnesota defense isn't one I normally want to go out of my way to target, but if this tough Vikes unit has a weakness, it's defending the TE spot. It doesn't hurt that Philly's Zach Ertz is priced at a season-low $5.4k and is a consistent usage monster in this Eagles offense, having received the second-most tight end targets in the NFL this season at 45. This volume is crucial to note as he squares off against a Minny defense that is allowing a catch rate of almost 75% to opposing TEs this season and was torched by Ertz when these teams met up last year. We can hope that the perceived "tough matchup" against the Vikings will keep Ertz' ownership low in GPPs.
Austin Hooper - ATL @ ARI ($5,000)
If you read this article last week, you probably remember the Tyler Eifert "Flow Chart" against the Arizona Cardinals (this is my moment to remind everyone that Eifert dropped an easy TD last week!), and while he didn't come through with a slate-breaking score we must continue to target this Cards defense with tight ends. Hooper is a better player in a better offense than Eifert and does have an excellent chance of posting a monster score against this Arizona D that has allowed the most DK points, catches, and yards in the NFL to opposing TEs. Hooper should have plenty of opportunities to rack up numbers this week in Atlanta's pass-happy offense. He's been targeted a ridiculous 42 times this season, that's just two fewer targets than Julio Jones! It's hard not to love Hooper's usage and matchup in what's a true smash spot!
*SATURDAY UPDATE: Like Mahomes, Travis Kelce is always "in consideration", but his price tag makes it tough for me to pull the trigger this week. I only have three TEs on my short list in Week 6...the two highlighted here and San Fran's George Kittle. Kittle's price is sandwiched between Ertz and Hooper, but you can argue that he has the most upside of the bunch. However, he did pop up with a groin injury Friday and is listed as 'Questionable'. I expect him to play, but it does make rostering him a bit dicey.
DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 6 Picks
Seattle Seahawks Defense - SEA @ CLE ($3,400)
With the Patriots and Bears playing outside the main slate, there's no "set it and forget it" play at the D/ST spot this week. In the absence of a no-brainer, I'm content to target the dumpster fire that is the Cleveland Browns offensive line. The Browns have upgraded at all of the skill positions over the last couple of years, but it appears as though they forgot that good football often starts at the line of scrimmage. Baker Mayfield has been sacked 16 times this season and appears to be under constant seige. This Seahawks defense isn't the same caliber as some of their past units, but have proven themselves capable of getting after opposing QBs this season with Jadeveon Clowney and company.
San Francisco 49ers Defense - SF @ LAR ($2,600)
The Rams have been a team to avoid with defenses over the last couple of years, and while L.A. is certainly still capable of putting up lots of points, Jared Goff has not looked like a quarterback to fear this season. The 49ers defense has been surprisingly great this year, ranking inside the top-five in the league in both run and pass DVOA. Rookie Nick Bosa has sparked what's turned into a fearsome pass rush and Richard Sherman anchors a secondary that's been super solid. Rostering San Fran isn't without risk, but the Niners are an intriguing way to gain leverage in tournaments.
*SATURDAY UPDATE: As I mentioned in the write-up, there is no 'slam dunk' play at defense this week and paying up doesn't guarantee us much. So, in the absence of anything I really love, I'll look to save as much salary as possible, which continues to lean me heavily in the Niners direction at $2.6k.
