Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 4

September 29, 2019

The top daily fantasy football lineup picks for DraftKings in Week 4 of 2019. Joe Nicely's NFL DFS analysis and sleepers for building optimal DFS rosters.

Hello again RotoBallers and NFL DFS fans! Thanks for joining me here at Break The Slate, a weekly article in which we try to pinpoint the best DraftKings plays available on the main slate. One of the most interesting things about NFL DFS is how different each slate is from week to week. Frankly, there's a lot of matchups that I have no interest in this week, so the Week 4 selections below mainly come from the handful of games that I'm specifically targeting on this slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 4.

Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, lets Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 4 Picks

Russell Wilson - SEA @ ARI ($6,100)

I love this game all the way around (as you'll see throughout this week's article) and Russell Wilson specifically. The Seahawks are a team that strives to run the ball as much (or more than) any team in the league, which puts a cap on Russ' ceiling most weeks. Of course, fantasy players know that Seattle is actually a more effective offense when 'forced' to unleash Wilson and get aggressive, which they've had to do the last couple of weeks. It's led to 706 yards and 5 TDs through the air, and 73 yards and 2 TDs on the ground for Wilson in his last two games. Seattle is a road favorite in this game against Arizona, so we can't really project that they will be playing catchup this week, but Wilson will be aided heavily by two factors:

1.) Arizona plays at an extremely fast pace and has allowed opponents to run an insane average of 70.3 plays per game, which should give Russ plenty of opportunities.
2.) This Cardinals secondary is putrid (they've allowed the third-most DraftKings points and passing yards to opposing QBs in the NFL), while the defense as a whole has been somewhat effective at slowing down the run, which creates a natural pass-funnel situation.

Unfortunately, Wilson's offensive coordinator is always his biggest obstacle to huge fantasy scores, so there is a 'lower than we would like' floor here, but there is also a path to another explosive fantasy day for Russ.

Daniel Jones - WAS @ NYG ($5,300)

I know this feels 'point chasey', but like the aforementioned Seattle vs Arizona matchup, there's a lot to love about this game that carries a surprisingly-high O/U of 48.5 and a tight point spread. After a monster debut last week in which he posted almost 40 DK points, New York's Daniel Jones has received a massive price bump of...$300? So, 'Danny Dimes' remains very affordable and draws a juicy matchup against the Washington Redskins...and all this comes with Saquon Barkley no longer in the Giants lineup. The 'Skins provide a very beatable matchup for the rookie, as they rank bottom-five in the league in both DK points and passing TDs allowed to opposing QBs. Jones will also be aided by his own team's horrific defense, which should force the G-Men to remain aggressive when they do have the ball.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: I feel like I'm often guilty of glossing over Patrick Mahomes, but I think it's because I feel like you guys don't need to be told that he's in play. If there was any doubt, he is obviously a very strong play with a high floor and slate-breaking upside if you want to pay up at QB.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 4 Picks

Austin Ekeler - LAC @ MIA ($8,000)

My usual preference is to grab as many 'guaranteed' points as possible at the RB position, but there's not a lot to feel great about at the top of the board this week - as Christian McCaffery has to square off against an improving Houston run defense on the road and Dalvin Cook gets a nightmarish matchup against the Bears - which brings us to the Chargers' Austin Ekeler at $8k. Melvin Gordon's backup has dazzled as LA's full-time starter this season and he draws a mouth-watering matchup against the struggling Miami Dolphins this week. Ekeler has been solid on the ground (38 carries for 160 yards and 2 TDs) and spectacular through the air (catching 19 of 20 targets for 208 yards and 2 TDs). As you all know, the Dolphins run defense is about as bad as it gets...ranking dead-last in the NFL in DK points and rushing yards allowed to opposing RBs. With Melvin Gordon's return on the horizon and the Chargers standing at 1-2, I expect Ekeler to have some extra motivation this week and have a huge game against Miami.

Derrick Henry - TEN @ ATL ($6,300)

Derrick Henry isn't a player that I often roster on DraftKings (he generally sets up better for FanDuel scoring), but I'm willing to give the big Titans back consideration this week for a few reasons. As we already touched on, RB is a rather thin position this week and Henry's reliable usage is appealing. The Titans are holding fast to their commitment to Henry and the run game, as he's averaging 17 carries per game over their first three, and I was encouraged (from a fantasy perspective) by how Tennessee continued to feed Henry the ball last Thursday night despite falling behind early to Jacksonville. He gets a Falcons defense that is once again reeling this season and has been a terrific matchup for opposing RBs over the last couple of years. We think of Henry as a 'ground and pound' back, but he's proven himself capable of making splash plays, in addition to handling all of Tennessee's goal line work.

Chris Thompson - WAS @ NYG ($4,500)

New York's Wayne Gallman is probably the player you were expecting to see here - and I wouldn't argue with you for rostering him - but if you're playing a large-field GPP like the Milly Maker, a pivot to Washington's Chris Thompson is a very interesting way to gain leverage on big fields. Gallman should be one of the most popular RBs on the slate, while I expect the dependable Thompson to go largely overlooked. The 'Skins back won't garner as many carries as his NY counterpart, but he's been a reliable source of production in the Washington pass game, hauling in 16 of 23 targets for 195 this season. Thompson is an especially intriguing option for those of you that are looking to stack this game.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: L.A.'s Justin Jackson has been confirmed out, while Melvin Gordon will now be available in a small capacity, all of which makes me love Ekeler even more in this spot. Dalvin Cook has an absolutely brutal matchup against Chicago, but with his ownership trending at around 5%, he's a very intriguing option in large-field GPPs due to his talent and ability to break big plays. I will be keeping an eye on T.Y Hilton's status and will fire up Marlon Mack against the Raiders if Hilton sits. Kerryon Johnson is yet to have a big game, but it feels like one is coming.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 4 Picks

Tyler Lockett - SEA @ ARI ($6,300)

As I mentioned when discussing Seattle's Russell Wilson at QB, there's a lot I like about this Sea/AZ matchup. Tyler Lockett is in a true 'slate breaking' situation this week against a Cards secondary that is without Patrick Peterson and has allowed over 250 passing yards in every game this season. Arizona is also allowing opponents to run a shade over 70 plays a game on average, which bodes well for the unquestioned alpha of this Seattle receiving corps. Lockett has been targeted a RIDICULOUS 26 times over the last two weeks, hauling in 21 catches for 233 yards and a TD. It's always tough trying to guess when the Seahawks will be 'forced' to turn to Lockett, but the projected game environment doesn't get much better than this. His game-breaking explosiveness gives him enourmous upside, while his new-found volume brings his floor up to a very comfortable level. I love the idea of stacking him with Russell Wilson and one or two Arizona receivers.

Christian Kirk - SEA @ ARI ($5,100)

I'll make you guys a deal, when Christian Kirk gets less than 10 targets or gets priced above $6k, I'll stop writing him up in this article. Kirk heads into this matchup as a usage monster that's tied for third in the NFL in wide receiver targets at 32 through three games. I don't anticipate that volume to change this week, with a Seattle defense that focuses on stopping the run (Seattle has allowed just 176 yards rushing to opposing RBs) and an Arizona offense that is content to pass all day. The Cards lead the league in pass attempts per game at 45.7 and we can almost pencil in Kirk for at least his usual 10 looks. While the Seahawks secondary was once a feared unit, they are now nothing more than a middle-of-the-pack team against the pass. Kirk is averaging a very respectable 15.5 DK points per game despite having caught no touchdowns and he has a great chance to smash salary-based expectations this week.

Paul Richardson Jr. - WAS @ NYG ($3,700)

Some of you might remember that I jumped on Terry McLaurin way back in Week 2 (#TootMyOwnHorn) and I'm willing to continue rolling with another overlooked Redskins pass catcher this week. Paul Richardson is kinda ridiculously-priced at $3,700 on this slate, as his salary actually decreased by $500 despite a 22.3-point outing Monday night against the Bears (thanks for early pricing DraftKings!). Richardson was targeted nine times against Chicago and turned those looks into a 9/83/1 stat line. I'm looking for exposure to this game as a whole and I'm specifically targeting this struggling Giants secondary that is dead last in the NFL in both DK points and receiving yards allowed to opposing WRs. His volume expectation isn't as dependable as McLaurin's (and I wouldn't blame you if you wanted to pony up the extra $800 for McLaurin), but through Washington's three games Richardson has target counts of 9/3/7...numbers I can live with at $3.7k in this matchup.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Washington's Terry McLaurin has popped up on the injury report. I'll be watching the situation very closely. If McLaurin goes I will have a combination of him, Richardson, and a stack of the two. If McLaurin is out, I'll be almost 'All In' on Richardson. Sticking with this game, I will mix New York's Sterling Shepard in with Richardson/McLaurin. As I alluded to when discussing Lockett & Kirk, I also like the other receiving pieces in this game like Larry Fitzgerald and DK Metcalf. L.A.'s Keenan Allen is once again a slam-dunk option. Atlanta's Calvin Ridley is always tough to predict, but he feels underpriced for the upside he brings to the table, while Carolina's Curtis Samuel seems to mesh well with new QB Kyle Allen at just $4,600.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 4 Picks

Evan Engram - WAS @ NYG ($5,700)

I was on Evan Engram last week and he came through with a monster 26.3 outing against the Bucs. I'll go right back to the well here against the 'Skins. Engram's price has been raised by $500 in Week 4, but you can argue that it still isn't high enough at $5.7k. He's a target monster and has received 30 looks over New York's first three games. As we suspected, Daniel Jones' insertion into the lineup was a huge boost to Engram and I expect him to put himself in the 'best tight end behind Travis Kelce' conversation this season.

Will Dissly - SEA @ ARI ($3,600)

I'm sticking with this Seattle vs Arizona matchup at the TE spot. Will Dissly will be an extremely popular option this week, but I'm willing to swallow the chalk here at just $3.6k. Dissly's floor is lower than it appears (he's caught 3 TDs in his last two games), but his volume seems to be stabilizing at 5-7 targets a game. Arizona has been TORCHED by opposing tight ends this season and rank dead-last in the league in DK points allowed, receiving yards, and TDs allowed to the TE position. This combination of matchup and price makes Dissly tough to ignore.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: As I mentioned in Dissly's write-up, he will be extremely chalky, but he's hard to ignore in this spot at just $3.6k. Engram will also be popular, but remains my favorite play at the TE position. Oakland's Darren Waller appears to be gaining a little steam in the DFS community this week - and I get it - but a pivot to Baltimore's Mark Andrews in a bounce-back spot probably offers more upside.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Week 4 Picks

New England Patriots - NE @ BUF ($3,700)

There's a legit argument for going up to the Chargers for just $100 more, as they get the Dolphins this week, but I'm comfortable with a "mini-pivot" to New England. The Patriots are playing great 'real world' defense and it has translated to fantasy goodness in the form of averaging 19.3 DK points through three games. This week's matchup against an improved Buffalo team might not look like a slam dunk at first glance, but we must keep in mind just how turnover prone Bills QB Josh Allen is. I expect Bill Belichick to find ways to force Allen into some bad decisions and wouldn't be surprised to see a Patriots defensive TD this week.

Los Angeles Rams - TB @ LAR ($3,500)

The Rams have a better defensive unit than they get credit for and this feels like a sneaky-good spot against Jameis Winston and the Bucs. Tampa Bay is fresh off an impressive offensive display against the Giants, but the Rams and Aaron Donald will present a much bigger challenge. Winston has only thrown four picks so far this season, but we know that his bad decisions can come in bunches and I'm willing to take a shot that L.A. can capitalize on some Winston mistakes in this spot.

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