Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Week 16 (Main Slate)

December 27, 2020

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 15. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Merry Christmas RotoBallers! You might be reading this after opening your presents or putting together a toy for your little one, so let me say welcome to Break The Slate...I'm happy that you are willing to take a moment away from the holiday chaos to relax and check out some NFL DFS content! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. Week 16 is shaping up to be a fun slate and I'm excited to dig in! Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 16. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 16 Picks

Patrick Mahomes - ATL @ KC ($8,500)

As I touched on in this article last week, Patrick Mahomes basically always deserves DFS consideration. That's certainly the case again this week with KC set to square off against the Atlanta Falcons. Atlanta's defense has improved since Dan Quinn's firing, but this secondary is still a unit that we want to target. The Falcons are something of a "funnel defense", as they rank ninth in yards allowed per carry, but 31st in yards allowed per pass! Despite usually playing with a lead, this Chiefs offense always leans pass-heavy and Mahomes' 544 pass attempts are the third-most in the NFL this season. We can expect Mahomes to be active in this one due to the matchup and the absence of Chiefs RB Clyde Edwards-Helaire.

Baker Mayfield - CLE @ NYJ ($6,100)

Baker Mayfield almost never ends up in my final player pool because this Cleveland offense has been so willing to lean on the run, but I'm strongly considering the Browns QB this week against the New York Jets. We all know how god-awful New York is this year, however, the one area they've been competent in is stopping the run. The Jets stand eighth in the NFL in run defense DVOA, while ranking DEAD LAST in the league in pass defense DVOA. Despite the pass-funnel matchup, a bet on Mayfield is still a bet that he'll be hyper efficient...something he's managed to do over Cleveland's last three games. He's topped 30 pass attempts in each of those last three, going for 21.0/34.0/33.5 DK points since Week 13. I consider Mayfield a "boom or bust" GPP play - it isn't hard to envision a scenario where Cleveland has some success on the ground and just sticks with it - that has an ultra-low floor, but also possesses tournament-winning upside at $6.1k .

SUNDAY UPDATE:

Basically the entire Cleveland receiving corps has been ruled OUT due to COVID complications. This obviously hurts Mayfield's upside.

Mitchell Trubisky - CHI @ JAX ($5,700)

Is it "Trubisky Time"? Not a question I thought I'd be asking myself this season, but here we are in Week 16 and Trubisky has actually looked "ok" since re-entering the Bears lineup in Week 12. The much-maligned Chicago QB has topped 20 DK Points in two of his last four starts and draws an absolute dream matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars this week. The Jags are more focused on the "Trevor Lawrence Sweepstakes" than winning football games at this point, while the Bears still have a glimmer of playoff hope. This Jacksonville defense ranks last in the league in yards allowed per attempt and has relinquished the second-most DK Points in the NFL to the QB position. The matchup and motivation is there for the Bears offense this week...giving Trubisky a legitimate chance to post his best outing of the season.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

I don't have a ton to add at the QB position this week, as the three players highlighted in the original article are still the plays I'll be leaning on. The one exception is Philly's Jalen Hurts at $7k, a player that I was heavy on last week and will also grab some exposure to this week...love the floor that his rushing ability brings to the table.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 16 Picks

David Montgomery - CHI @ JAX ($7,700)

I'm gonna stick with this surging Bears offense at the RB position with David Montgomery, the straw that's stirring the drink for Chicago. Montgomery has morphed from being a "nice DFS play due to his volume" for the majority of the season, into a player that's posting slate-breaking DraftKings scores over the past month.

Not to take anything away from Montgomery, but it's not as if he's magically turned into Derrick Henry overnight. So why the spike in production? In addition to his steady workload, he's been blessed with some unbelievably-good matchups as of late and hasn't faced a team with a rush defense DVOA that ranks better than 20th in the past month. That luck continues this week against the Jacksonville Jaguars, a unit that stands 23rd in rush defense DVOA and ranks 30th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry. The good times should continue to roll for Montgomery in this matchup.

Miles Sanders - PHI @ DAL ($7,000)

Not gonna lie...the RB position on this slate is kinda gross. The absence of guys like Derrick Henry, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara leaves us scrambling for slate-breaking upside at RB, which is perhaps the only reason I'm looking at Miles Sanders at $7k. The Philly back has only topped 20 DK Points three times this season, but the combination of his usage with Jalen Hurts at QB and a matchup against the Dallas Cowboys makes me willing to dip my toe in the water this week. Sanders has touch counts of 18 and 19 in Hurts' two starts, and he went for a season-high 32.6 DK Points against New Orleans in Week 14. The matchup against the Cowboys is also a winnable one, as Dallas trails only the horrible Houston Texans in yards allowed per carry to opposing RBs this season at 4.90. A $7k Miles Sanders isn't normally a place I'd find myself going, but the texture of this slate - and the nature of DFS in general - forces us to adapt.

Le'Veon Bell - ATL @ KC ($5,800)

Nothing fancy here with Le'Veon Bell, just a nice value on a player that's going to see an increased role on the league's best offense due to the absence of Clyde Edwards-Helaire. Bell was a high-profile pickup for Kansas City, but despite averaging 4.0 yards per carry for the Chiefs, he's been rather low-impact on the field since his arrival and has struggled to carve out a role on this crowded, star-studded offense. He received 17 touches after Edwards-Helaire went down last week - his most since signing with KC - and produced his highest DK Point outing (14.6) of the season as a result. As we touched on when discussing Patrick Mahomes, this Atlanta defense has been sneaky-solid against the run, so this isn't a true "smash" spot for Bell, but we can expect enough volume for him on this explosive offense to make him a viable salary saver at the RB position.

LATE ADD:

 Melvin Gordon - DEN @ LAC ($5,600)

I'm adding Melving Gordon to the article now that Phillip Lindsay has officially been ruled OUT. Backup RB Royce Freeman is also Questionable for the Broncos, so there's a real possibility that Gordon could basically handle 100% of the work out of the backfield at just $5.6k. I actually prefer Gordon's matchup to Le'Veon Bell's, as the Denver offense is more willing to run the ball than KC and the Chargers are allowing an average of 4.61 yards per carry to opposing RBs.

SUNDAY UPDATE: 

Couple of surprising late moves, as Jacksonville's James Robinson has been ruled OUT, while WFT's Antonio Gibson is now expected to play. With Cleveland's issues at WR, I would also bump Nick Chubb & Kareem Hunt up a bit.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

As alluded to in the original writeup...the RB position is pretty gross this week, which is one reason I've added Melvin Gordon as a late recommendation. Nick Chubb and Jonathan Taylor both have very difficult matchups, but both are capable of overcoming the matchups to post high scores. J.K. Dobbins has been consistently finding the end zone, but he's still not getting the volume that we'd love to see. Cincy's Gio Bernard carried the ball 25 times last week and draws a matchup against a rush defense that's the worst in the NFL in the Texans.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 16 Picks

Calvin Ridley - ATL @ KC ($8,500) 

I actually don't love this matchup for Calvin Ridley, as the Chiefs have been extremely stout against the pass (13th in pass defense DVOA) this year. However, it feels like Ridley will be a contrarian way to gain exposure to this game, as I expect anyone that's shopping this high up at the WR position to target Tyreek Hill. So...this pivot to Ridley puts us in position to grab true tournament-winning upside at low ownership.

Though the matchup isn't great, we can expect Ridley to get all the work he can handle with Julio Jones out of the lineup for Atlanta. Over Jones' recent two-game absence, Ridley has been targeted a combined 26 times, logging 18 catches for 287 yards and two TDs. Those are video game numbers that are worth gambling on in GPPs.

Robert Woods - LAR @ SEA ($7,000) 

The days of Seattle having a secondary to fear are long gone, as the Seahawks rank dead last in the NFL in yards allowed per pass this season. It also helps that Seattle is a true "funnel unit" that allows the third-fewest yards per carry in the league on the ground.

In the past, the trouble with rostering Rams pass catchers was trying to figure out which player would get the targets. While anything can happen on any given week, Robert Woods has emerged as the "alpha" of this L.A. receiving corps as of late. Since Week 10, he's paced the Rams with 60 targets to Cooper Kupp's 44 and has went over double-digit targets in three of the Rams last five.

Diontae Johnson - IND @ PIT ($6,300)

Another play that's probably gonna be against the grain this week is Pittsburgh's Diontae Johnson, a talented player that's been plagued by drops as of late. Public opinion has cratered on both the Steelers as a whole and Johnson specifically, which makes this a very intriguing "buy low" spot for me. When we cut through all the noise and ignore the current perception of Johnson, we find that his usage numbers are still through the roof in spite of his struggles to - ya know - catch the ball. He's received 10 or more targets in eight of Pittsburgh's last nine games! His 126 targets this season are the ninth-most in the NFL and put him in the neighborhood of guys like Adams, Hopkins, and Diggs. The matchup against Indy isn't one we'll normally go out of our way to target, but the Colts are by no means impenetrable and rank just a middling 17th in the NFL in yards allowed per pass.

Rashard Higgins - CLE @ NYJ ($4,800) *RULED OUT*

A similar sentiment with Rashard Higgins as with Baker Mayfield...I don't often target this Browns passing attack, but I'm intrigued this week. With Jarvis Landry carrying a $6.9k price tag, Higgins is a natural stacking partner with Mayfield and a viable salary saver. He's stepped up nicely in the absence of Odell Beckham Jr., especially over Cleveland's last three. Higgins has combined for 16 catches, 239 yards, and two TDs since Week 13. He draws a juicy matchup against a Jets secondary that has allowed 10 (!) opposing WRs to go for 20-plus DK Points against them this season. New York is relinquishing 8.82 yards per target and has a rush defense that should funnel this run-first Cleveland offense to the air.

SUNDAY UPDATE: 

Higgins, along with running mates Jarvis Landry, Donovan Peoples-Jones, & KhaDarel Hodge have all been ruled OUT due to COVID protocols. The only Browns WR currently available on DraftKings is Lions castoff, Marvin Hall, at $3k. As I type this Sunday morning, it looks as though LA's Keenan Allen has been ruled OUT, which brings Mike Williams, Jalen Guyton, & Tyron Johnson squarely into play. WFT's Terry McLaurin has also officially been ruled OUT.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Not to sound like a broken record, but this is a funky slate and the WR position is no different, as the best option, Tyreek Hill, still carries a Questionable tag as I write this. I expect Hill to play, but could also see the Chiefs exercising some caution with him in a game they should control. D.K. Metcalf will go low-owned due to a tough matchup and Seattle's recent struggles on offense...he's an intriguing contrarian play in GPPs. Allen Robinson and/or Darnell Mooney are ways to grab exposure to this Bears offense against the Jags. The Texans trio of Brandin Cooks, Keke Coutee, and Chad Hansen also get a winnable matchup against the Bengals, while the only thing holding back Tee Higgins is poor QB play. We touched on Rashard Higgins in the writeup and Jarvis Landry is obviously a player we're also targeting....while Jamison Crowder is an affordable way to bring back any Cleveland stacks. Some very intriguing dart throws this week...Cam Sims deserves a look with Terry McLaurin expected to be OUT...Mike Williams, Tyron Johnson, or Jalen Guyton are interesting GPP options depending on Keenan Allen's availability, as is Dallas' Michael Gallup.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 16 Picks

Travis Kelce - KC @ NO ($8,500)

Travis Kelce was listed here last week and I'm just gonna leave him up, as there's honestly no other TE that comes close to his production. His price tag has been bumped yet again and he now sits at a massive $8.5k...his highest salary tag of the season. That huge price is the only reason to think twice about rostering Kelce, as his volume, production, and matchup against Atlanta are all elite.

Dallas Goedert - PHI @ DAL ($3,600)

Maybe it's a bit simplistic, but my recent strategy at the TE position has been "Pay all the way up for Kelce or go super cheap.". That's the thought process that leads me down to Dallas Goedert at $3.8k. Those that just skim game logs might think that Jalen Hurts' elevation to the starting lineup has hurt Goedert. While it's true that Goedert hasn't posted monster scores with Hurts at the helm, the volume is still there, as he's been targeted a combined 14 times over Hurts' two starts. I'll take that volume at the tricky TE position, especially against a Cowboys Defense that's allowed opposing TEs to catch a massive 75.6% of their targets...the third-highest rate in the NFL.

Cole Kmet - CHI @ JAX ($3,000)

Those that really want to "punt" at TE might want to consider Chicago's Cole Kmet. We've spent a good chunk of this article talking about pieces from the Bears offense due to Jacksonville's struggles on defense. That's also the case at the TE position, as the Jags are allowing a MASSIVE 8.78 yards per target to opposing TEs - a mark that ranks 31st in the NFL - and have relinquished the second-most TDs (11) in the league to the position this season. Kmet is coming off a two-target stinker in Week 15, but he played EVERY SINGLE OFFENSIVE SNAP against Minnesota last week...a game in which the Bears offense only attempted 21 passes. He had been targeted a combined 14 times in Chicago's previous two, so this matchup against the Jags profiles as a great bounce-back spot for Kmet.

SUNDAY UPDATE:

Cleveland will need to get creative on offense, which makes Austin Hooper, Harrison Bryant, and even David Njoku legitimate DFS value plays.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Nothing to add at TE, as I'll be rolling with the originally highlighted plays above.

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