Break The Slate: NFL DFS DraftKings Lineup Picks - Divisional Round

January 11, 2020

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for the Divisional Playoff Round. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi RotoBallers, and thanks for joining me here for the NFL Playoffs! The Divisional Round gives us four games spread over Saturday and Sunday, just like last week's Wild Card Weekend. While it's nowhere near a full slate of games, we do have some of the best offensive players in the NFL available to us this weekend, which makes it really fun to build DFS lineups. We'll dive into some of those opportunities in this week's article.

These DraftKings DFS lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are some great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs.

Good luck with your Divisional Round DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Divisional Round Picks

Lamar Jackson - TEN @ BAL ($8,400)

There are no bad quarterbacks on this slate, but the two most prominent QBs on the board just so happen to have the best matchups. Baltimore's Lamar Jackson carries the highest price tag at the position, but is in a great spot at home against the Tennessee Titans. Jackson has proven to be explosive both running and throwing the ball this year, racking up 1,206 yards on the ground and 3,127 yards through the air. He gets a nice matchup against a Tennessee defense that ranked 27th in the NFL in DraftKings points allowed to opposing QBs.

Patrick Mahomes - HOU @ KC ($7,500)

This game is unquestionably the most enticing of the weekend from a DFS perspective. It's an especially juicy matchup for KC's Patrick Mahomes, a player that failed to match his 2018 production, but still carries as much fantasy upside as any QB in the NFL. The Texans ranked dead last in the NFL in DraftKings points allowed to opposing QBs, while finishing 31st in passing yards allowed. With Houston more than capable of keeping up with the Chiefs, this game has true shootout potential, and we know that Mahomes is capable of posting video-game-like numbers.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Divisional Round Picks

Derrick Henry - TEN @ BAL ($8,200)

Like last week, this isn't the greatest slate for the running back position. And also like last week, I'm willing to bet on Derrick Henry even in a tough matchup. Henry went into full-on 'Incredible Hulk mode' against New England last weekend - a team that was the top-ranked team in the NFL against RBs by the way - smashing for 182 yards and a TD on a massive 34 carries. We probably can't expect that type of workload for Henry against Baltimore - a team that finished the season ranked fourth against the position - since the Titans enter this matchup as 9.5-point road underdogs. It's actually not a horrible matchup for Henry here - and we know he has the talent to overcome any matchup anyway - as the Ravens allowed a not-so-wonderful 4.42 yards per carry to opposing backs this year. Tennessee wants to ride Henry, but the biggest concern here is that they fall behind to the extent that they can't employ that gameplan. I expect Baltimore to sell out against the run and basically dare Ryan Tannehill to beat them in this game, but betting against Derrick Henry isn't a DFS strategy that's been very profitable this season.

Carlos Hyde - HOU @ KC ($5,000)

We're skipping over a lot of talented backs as we drop from Derrick Henry down to Carlos Hyde at $5k. Arguments can be made for a lot of the players in between - and Hyde certainly doesn't jump off the page as the most talented back on the slate - but the Texans back is an interesting salary saver on this four-game slate. The Chiefs Defense has unquestionably improved this season, especially against the pass, but they are beatable on the ground. Kansas City has relinquished just over 1,700 yards and 4.86 yards per carry to opposing RBs this season, as well as allowing the seventh-most DK points in the NFL to the position. Houston will attempt to take advantage of this weakness, just as they did when giving Hyde 26 carries when these teams met back in Week 6. Hyde racked up 116 yards and a TD on the ground in that game, and while that's not the type of production we can expect in this matchup, he has a shot to produce a useful, volume-driven score here.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Divisional Round Picks

Tyreek Hill - HOU @ KC ($7,600)

Hill has been relatively quiet as of late, but is a serious threat to go bonkers in this matchup, as he'll steadily see some combination of Tampa Bay castoff Vernon Hargreaves and a less-than-100% Johnathan Joseph. Anything can happen in the NFL, but it doesn't feel like Houston has much chance of slowing him down. "The Cheetah" has accounted for 11 receptions of 20-or-more yards this season and has the ability to break this slate wide open in a matchup against a Texans secondary that has routinely relinquished big plays.

D.K. Metcalf - SEA @ GB ($6,800)

This is a true gasoline meets fire matchup, as one of the best young deep threats in the league is set to square off against a secondary that struggles to stop deep passes. Only the Oakland Raiders allowed more pass plays of 40-plus yards than Green Bay this season. Metcalf carries a healthy aDOT of 13 into this matchup and this Packers secondary will have a tough time containing the Seattle rookie that has freakish athletic talent. Metcalf enters this weekend on a roll, having logged 241 yards and 2 TDs on 21 targets over Seattle's last two games.

Emmanuel Sanders - MIN @ SF ($5,400)

Emmanuel Sanders' recent lack of production probably makes his $5.4k price tag fair, but man it sure does feel cheap. Sanders appeared primed to make a huge impact on the Niners passing game after coming over in a trade from Denver - and he did just that initially - but he's battled injuries for the majority of his San Fran stint. Sanders still has the ability to pop, as evidenced by his 37.1 DK outing against New Orleans in Week 14, and he's in a sneaky-good situation this week against a Minnesota defense that allowed the fourth-most receiving yards in the NFL to opposing wide receivers this season.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Divisional Round Picks

Mark Andrews - TEN @ BAL ($5,600)

I can't believe that we've got a four-game slate with both Travis Kelce and George Kittle in action, and I'm not writing them up...but I feel like you guys know what you're getting with either of them, so I wanna touch on Baltimore's Mark Andrews. Andrews has been able to produce some slate-winning fantasy scores this season despite playing roughly half the number of snaps that guys like Kelce and Kittle get. He ran pass routes on a ridiculous 97.6% of snaps this season and is Baltimore's best pass catcher. So, even though Andrews isn't actually on the field as much as a Kelce or Kittle, when he is out there he's running routes and receiving targets. He gets a sneaky-great matchup against a Tennessee team that has struggled to contain tight ends this season and has allowed the fourth-most TDs and sixth-most yards in the league to the position.

DraftKings DFS Defenses - Divisional Round Picks

Kansas City Chiefs - HOU @ KC ($3,000)

This matchup is one that we'll all be eyeing for offensive fireworks, but I'm also intrigued by this KC defense. We all know that Arrowhead is one of the best home-field advantages in football and the Chiefs defense has been consistently better when playing at home. They've improved this season, and have proven to be especially solid in two areas: pass coverage and rushing the quarterback. Deshaun Watson was sacked seven times in the Wild Card game against Buffalo last weekend and the Chiefs should be able to apply some serious heat in this one.

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