Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 4

October 4, 2020

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 4. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article regularly, then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate that can add tournament-winning upside and/or juicy value to our NFL DFS rosters. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.

I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL, and I definitely recommend you checking those out. It was a real "boom or bust" slate for us in Week 3, as featured players like Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jeff Wilson Jr., and Tyler Lockett exploded for us...while other highlighted players like Diontae Johnson, Kenyan Drake, and Dallas Goedert either left their games injured or underperformed. Remember, the NFL is ever-evolving from week to week, which gives us an opportunity to apply what we've learned on the next slate.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 4. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 4 Picks

Russell Wilson - SEA @ MIA ($7,800)

"If it ain't broke, don't fix it" is quickly becoming my mantra at the QB position this season. In the past it would often make sense to pay down at the position, but with DK's current compressed QB pricing, I'm more willing to go ahead and take the "best available" route.

Seattle's Russell Wilson certainly falls in that category, as he's putting together an MVP-caliber season thus far. For years, fantasy players have been praying that the Seahawks' coaching staff would unleash Wilson and it looks as though the time has finally come. He's answered the bell, posting 925 passing yards and a league-high 14 TD passes. The onslaught should continue this week, as Russ is set to square off against a Miami Dolphins Defense that is allowing nearly nine yards per attempt (worst in the league) and stands 29th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the QB position. As if things didn't set up well enough for Wilson already, there's also a strong chance that this Seattle offense will be without starting RB Chris Carson.

Josh Allen - BUF @ LV ($7,300)

I start work on this column fairly early in the week, so it's tough to get an ultra-accurate handle on where ownership will shake out (check the Saturday Updates section), but as I write this, Josh Allen is currently projected at around 6-8% ownership. If this holds, we're looking at a true leverage spot with the Bills QB.

Maybe folks are reluctant to roster Allen against a Raiders defense that just held Cam Newton to 12.2 DK points in Week 3? Maybe many just aren't ready to trust Allen? Whatever the case may be, I'm ready to jump on a less-than-10% owned Josh Allen that is averaging 35.6 DK points through three games. Make no mistake, this isn't a terrific matchup against a Raiders defense that has only allowed three passing TDs in their first three games. However, I'm willing to "bet on talent and usage" with Allen in this spot. He ranks inside the top-six in the NFL in passing attempts, completion %, yards, yards per attempt, and QB rushing attempts.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: As for the QB's in the original writeup, Russ will be extremely popular, while Allen's ownership is still trending at less than 10% :). This week presents the most viable QB options that we've seen on a slate this season. I feel that both Lamar Jackson ($8.1k) and Patrick Mahomes ($7.4k) go without saying. Also above $7k, Dak Prescott ($7.2k) is right in the mix with Wilson and Allen as my favorite QB play on the slate, while Kyler Murray ($7.0k) brings a nice floor every week due to his rushing ability. As we dip below $7k, Deshaun Watson ($6.6k) has opened the season with three incredibly tough matchups, but draws a true breakout spot this week against a struggling Vikings Defense. Cincinnati continues to let rookie Joe Burrow ($6.3k) sling the rock...he's second in the NFL in pass attempts (141) and squares off against a Jags defense that's allowing nearly 8.50 yards per attempt. If you need to save salary at QB, Miami's Ryan Fitzpatrick ($5.4k) is far and away my favorite value option on the slate and a unique pivot from Russell Wilson. FitzMagic has went over 25 DK points in his last two outings and faces a Seattle defense that has been slaughtered by the pass this year.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 4 Picks

Alvin Kamara - NO @ DET ($8,000)

As a lifelong Tennessee Vols fan, I'm always willing to die on the Alvin Kamara hill. My guy was obviously playing hurt last year and we saw a dip in his production as a result. This season, AK looks healthy and fresh, which has sent his fantasy numbers skyrocketing.

Kamara is coming off a huge 13-target game against Green Bay in Week 3 and leads the NFL in RB targets at 31, which he's converted into 27 receptions for 285 yards and 3 TDs (all of which are leading the league for the RB position). His role in the pass game was given a boost by the absence of Michael Thomas last week, but even if Thomas returns against Detroit, Kamara will still be heavily targeted in this offense. As for when he carries the ball, he'll be squaring off against a Lions run defense that ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry (6.10) allowed to opposing RBs.

Dalvin Cook - MIN @ HOU ($7,600)

Week 3 was a slate in which I wasn't really interested in paying up at RB, but Week 4 is shaping up as a "spend up" kind of slate, as my attention directly goes to the aforementioned Alvin Kamara and Minnesota's Dalvin Cook.

Cook wasn't bad through the first two weeks of the season, but last week against the Titans was the first time this year we collectively said, "Ok, this is Dalvin Cook!". He blasted off for 181 yards and a TD on 22 carries against Tennessee, while also snagging two of five targets for 18 yards. Both the rushing attempts and the targets were season highs, and I expect these to become somewhere around the norm as the year progresses. Cook draws a smash matchup against a Texans Defense that has looked completely lost. Houston ranks bottom-five in the NFL in DK points, rushing yards, and yards per carry allowed to the RB position. Minnesota is not a team that will be shy about running the football and we should see Cook get all the work he can handle this week.

Mike Davis - ARI @ CAR ($5,700)

There's only one Christian McCaffrey, but Mike Davis turned in his best CMC impression last week. In McCaffrey's absence, Davis garnered the workhorse role for Carolina, racking up 13 rushing attempts and NINE(!) targets. Of course, Davis didn't produce CMC-like numbers, but his 46 rushing yards, eight catches for 45 yards and a TD totals are nothing to sneeze at. This week he draws a matchup against a Cardinals Defense that is one of just two teams in the league allowing over 10 yards per target to the RB position and should be considered no better than "matchup neutral" on the ground. With Davis' huge workload in the Carolina passing game, he's an intriguing option thanks to DK's full-PPR scoring format.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Love the three players mentioned in the original writeup - and with Michael Thomas officially OUT for New Orleans, Kamara becomes basically a "set it and forget it" play for me - but there are other solid options available. Everyone is in love with this Dallas passing attack (me too!), though Ezekiel Elliott ($7.8k) has still received 20 or more touches in every game this season. Austin Ekeler's ($7.1k) usage is somewhat solidified as long as Justin Herbert remains the starter, but his matchup against the Bucs is a brutal one. James Robinson ($6.5k) and Clyde Edwards-Helaire ($6.4k) stand out in the mid-$6k range, while Darrell Henderson Jr. ($5.8k) has quietly wrestled away the lead back role from Malcolm Brown in this resurgent Rams offense. If you're going to #ValueTown this week, Myles Gaskin ($5.0k) is coming off a 27-touch game in Week 3 and Ronald Jones II ($4.7) seemingly has a path to meaningful usage with Leonard Fournette ruled OUT for the Bucs.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 4 Picks

Will Fuller - MIN @ HOU ($5,900)

As you've probably gathered after reading the QB and RB sections of this week's column, I'm targeting high-priced plays at both positions. As a result, I'll be bargain shopping at WR in Week 4. He is undoubtedly a "boom or bust" type of play (and not one for those of you with a weak stomach), but I'm intrigued with Houston's Will Fuller at $5.9k this week.

I'm the first to admit that it always feels gross when you click Fuller's name, but I'm looking at this as a pure "give myself a shot at huge upside and not worry about the floor" play. When healthy, Fuller is the unquestioned leader of this Texans receiving corps, garnering 15 combined targets in the two games he's been active. He draws a greenlight matchup against a banged-up Minnesota secondary that ranks bottom-five in the league in DK points, receiving yards, TDs, and yards per target allowed to the WR position.

DeVante Parker - SEA @ MIA ($5,700)

For a guy that remembers the "Legion of Boom" days, it feels really weird to say that the Seattle Seahawks are a secondary that we want to target, but that is unquestionably the case. The Seahawks are HEMORRHAGING production to the WR position...ranking dead last in the NFL against the position basically across the board (DK points, receptions, yards, TDs, and yards per target).

After a legitimate breakout season in 2019, Miami's DeVante Parker has been slowed by a hamstring injury a bit to start this year. However, Parker has resumed practicing in full over the last two weeks and has had 10 days to rest after a five-catch, 69-yard outing against the Jags last Thursday. We know there's explosive chemistry between he and Miami QB Ryan Fitzpatrick...and this matchup offers a true breakout spot for Parker.

Hunter Renfrow - BUF @ LV ($4,600)

For some reason, the Raiders have pretty much refused to get Hunter Renfrow consistently involved in this offense. However, due to injuries to basically every starter in the Raiders' receiving corps, Renfrow was pushed into duty last week against New England. He responded (as he always does) by catching six of nine targets for 84 yards and a TD (and was called down on the 1 on another). We can debate Renfrow's athletic ability...but the dude can play football and we're assuming that he'll receive a high workload if all the Raiders WRs miss this week's game.

He draws a matchup that looks ugly at first glance, but this Buffalo pass defense is far from unbeatable. The Bills rank 26th in the NFL in DK points allowed to the WR position and have been routinely burned by slot receivers, with Cooper Kupp posting a 9/107/1 stat line last week.

*SATURDAY UPDATE: Of course, Will Fuller popped up on the injury report Thursday with a hamstring concern (SHOCKER), but Fuller did practice fully Friday and remains an intriguing GPP target for those that wake up Sunday morning feeling dangerous. If you want to pivot from Fuller while still targeting this matchup against Minnesota, Brandin Cooks ($4.5k) is a "boom or bust" value option. DeAndre Hopkins ($8.5k) is a game-time decision - though he always seems to play through injury - while Michael Thomas ($7.6k) has officially been ruled OUT. Thomas' absence strengthens the case for Alvin Kamara at RB and brings Emmanuel Sanders ($4.8k) squarely into consideration as a value WR...while the injury-ridden Saints will also be without both of their starting CBs, which opens the door for a player like Kenny Golladay ($6.0k). A similar situation in Tampa Bay, as Chris Godwin ($6.5k) has been officially ruled OUT, clearing a path to volume for Mike Evans ($6.4k), though the matchup against a tough Chargers secondary is less-than-optimal...on the other side of that game, Keenan Allen ($6.5k) is also in a tough matchup, but continues to be peppered with targets (a ridiculous 29 targets in Herbert's two starts!). The dynamic duo of Tyler Lockett ($7.0k) and D.K. Metcalf ($6.8k) are both strong (but popular) options in this fully-clicking Seahawks passing attack. The same can be said for the Dallas receiving corps, as Amari Cooper ($6.7k), Michael Gallup ($6.2k), and CeeDee Lamb ($5.4k) deserve serious consideration, while Odell Beckham Jr. ($5.8k) is an interesting way to bring back Cowboys stacks. The Bengals' pass-happy nature brings both Tyler Boyd ($6.1k) and Tee Higgins ($4.5k) into play as unique options.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 4 Picks

T.J. Hockenson - NO @ DET ($4,800)

The frustration that usually comes with rostering T.J. Hockenson is directly tied to Matthew Stafford's stubborn refusal to look his way. Hockenson finally received some volume in Week 3, as he was targeted seven times against the Cardinals. Hopefully, he'll receive a similar workload this week against a Saints Defense that has struggled mightily against opposing TEs. New Orleans ranks last in the NFL in DK points allowed to the position and has allowed the most catches, yards, and TDs in the league to TEs.

Evan Engram - NYG @ LAR ($4,400)

Remember when Evan Engram was good? Yeah, I know...it's been awhile. It seemed as though Engram was on the path to stardom there for a minute, but the Giants athletic TE has been continuously besieged with injuries over the last couple of years. He's actually been healthy this season and just hasn't been able to produce. It's not for lack of volume, as Engram has been targeted 20 times through three games. With explosive options basically nill at the low-end of the TE salary scale, I'm willing to gamble that Engram finally capitalizes on his opportunities against a Rams Defense that allowed three TDs to Bill tight ends last week.

SATURDAY UPDATE: Once again, the TE position is pretty gross this week. Despite his boom/bust nature, Mark Andrews ($6.0k) stands out as my favorite spend-up option against a Washington defense that's 27th in the league in DK points allowed to the position. Miami's Mike Gesicki ($5.1k) is a "tight end" in name only and is running pass routes on 96% of the snaps he plays. In a Dallas offense that everyone wants to target, Dalton Schultz ($4.3k) presents a contrarian way to get exposure to the 'Boys. Logan Thomas ($3.5k) continues to under-produce relative to his volume, but at this price tag it's tough to ignore a TE that trails only Travis Kelce and Darren Waller in total targets.

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