Break The Slate: DraftKings NFL DFS Lineup Picks - Week 4

October 2, 2021

Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 3. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.

Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! Before we dive into the Week 4 DraftKings slate, I wanted to take a minute to touch on the passing of a true giant in the fantasy football community, Mike Tagliere.

If you follow fantasy football at all, then you're probably aware that "Tags" passed away last weekend following an extended battle with COVID. You've also likely seen the outpouring of respect and admiration for Mike in the subsequent days. You'll probably see many tributes in many articles around the industry this week, most more eloquent and well informed than mine, but even though I never had the pleasure of getting to know Tags, my level of respect for him almost demanded a few lines to open this week's article.

As someone that's written "bibles" and several hefty, extensive pieces for PGA DFS, I can't express to you guys how much work and research go into long-form fantasy pieces. Mike not only did it every single week of the football season with his article, The Primer - a piece that was almost immediately accepted as the gold standard in fantasy football writing - but he also did it with an unashamed, infectious passion for fantasy football and attention to detail that was second to none. Here's the thing...all the smart and informed fantasy football writers that you read every week; they all read Tags every week. His work will be greatly missed by his readers and the football community at large, but that sense of emptiness that we feel pales in comparison to the devastation and loss that his wife, Tabbie, and his two children, Alyssa and Jonathan, must be experiencing. So, if you are so inclined, say a little prayer for the Tagliere family tonight.

These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 4. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!

DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 4 Picks

Lamar Jackson - BAL @ DEN ($7,500)

In last week's article, we talked a lot about "buying low" on talented players and it's something of a common thread again this week. Sometimes that means a player's salary is too low and sometimes that means the public's confidence level in a player (or his matchup) is too low. In Week 3 I highlighted Josh Allen in this space, a player that had underwhelmed over the first couple weeks of the year and faced a Washington defense that the public perceived as a tough matchup. Despite his lack of fantasy production over the first two games, Allen's usage numbers remained elite and we also discussed some reasons why Washington's defense might not be as good as advertised. I think we're looking at some noticeable similarities with Lamar Jackson this week, a quarterback that's coming off a very lackluster Week 3 outing against the hapless Detroit Lions and now draws what appears to be a tough-as-nails matchup against the Denver Broncos. Needless to say, this play comes with some risk, however, there is also an underlying GPP-winning-type reward.

Unlike Washington last week, I don't doubt for a second that Denver's defense is actually good, but...let's consider that through three weeks they have faced the Giants, Jags, and Jets. I'm pretty sure none of those teams have Lamar Jackson at quarterback. As for Lamar himself, he's coming off a performance against Detroit in which he only accounted for 20.3 DK points. That fact, coupled with his still-high $7.5k price tag, will keep his ownership depressed. However, his usage remains elite, meaning - like Josh Allen last week - a monster performance is likely on the horizon. We all know how terrific Jackson is as a runner - and the type of DFS floor and ceiling it gives us - but it's actually his usage through the air that draws my attention. Jackson leads all NFL quarterbacks in aDOT at 11.56 yards and he's the only regular starting QB with an aDOT over 10 yards. His Total Air Yards (1,013) also ranks near the top of the league with an average of over 337 Air Yards per game.

Sam Darnold - CAR @ DAL ($6,000)

With the aforementioned Lamar Jackson we're betting on talent and usage in a less-than-great matchup. With Carolina's Sam Darnold the jury might still be out on whether he's actually talented, but his Week 4 situation demands our attention. After being freed from the prison sentence that was life with Adam Gase, Darnold has looked like a totally different player with the Panthers and talented coordinator Joe Brady this year. He's exceeded 20 DK points in each of Carolina's first three games and while his usage stats might not jump off the page, they are certainly solid, as his 810 Total Air Yards places him just below Kyler Murray and just above Matt Stafford. In addition to his better-than-expected play, Darnold is set to square off against the Dallas Cowboys in Week 4 without Christian McCaffrey in the lineup. While this Dallas defense has looked improved since their season-opening torching at the hands of Tom Brady, this is a secondary that's still allowed the second-most passing yards in the NFL to this point and is relinquishing just over eight yards per attempt to opposing signal-callers. With CMC out of the offense, we can expect the Panthers to allow Darnold to handle more of the load. He certainly answered the bell when McCaffrey went down last week, going 9/11 for 198 yards on pass attempts that were over 10 yards.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Let me reiterate, Lamar Jackson is a high-risk/reward GPP option. There are certainly some "safer" lines to take at the QB position, with KC's Patrick Mahomes being chief among them, as he's rarely going to "let you down". Same can be said for last week's hero, Josh Allen, though whether Houston can keep this game competitive is a real concern. A really nice little salary pocket between $6.7k to $7.1k, with Russell Wilson, Matt Stafford, Jalen Hurts, and Dak Prescott all being very viable options. It seems like nobody ever wants to play Kirk Cousins, but he simply keeps producing. Matt Ryan is complete and total dust, but this $5.4k price tag is tempting against a WFT defense that's been lit up to this point. I know it's gross, but this matchup against Tennessee will be the easiest that Zach Wilson has had in his young career.

DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 4 Picks

Derrick Henry - TEN @ NYJ ($8,800)

For all the ways we want to be contrarian when targeting players for GPP-specific lineups, we also must be willing to accept that sometimes an obvious spot is also a very good one. That's where we find ourselves with Derrick Henry this week, as the Titans come into this one as a TD favorite over the scuffling Jets. Henry has logged a hard-to-fathom 92 touches over Tennessee's first three games and is set to face a New York unit that has allowed the third-most DK points in the NFL to the RB position. We also must consider that this Titans offense will now be without A.J. Brown in Week 4, with Julio Jones' status also looking murky as the week progresses. This sets up as a game environment in which Henry could realistically see 30-ish carries and we need only look to his 50.7 DK point explosion against Seattle in Week 2 to be reminded what the Big Dog is capable of when fed properly.

Nick Chubb - CLE @ MIN ($7,000)

It feels as though there are lots of land mines at the RB position this week, as I suspect many will go "chasing" guys like Najee Harris and D'Andre Swift. While those are certainly fine players, I'm interested in a more proven commodity in Nick Chubb. The Browns back's DK price has now dropped to a season-low $7k. This salary decrease comes in spite of Chubb getting 22 carries against Chicago last week. Another spot that folks might chase is Chubb's own teammate, Kareem Hunt, who posted a splashy 27.5 point DK score last week. While this certainly isn't an ideal scenario for either back, keep in mind that Chubb has out-carried Hunt 48 to 29 over the first three weeks of the season and remains the main man in this Browns backfield. His GPP ownership will be minuscule despite the fact that he draws a sneaky-good matchup against a Vikings defense that ranks 26th in the NFL in yards allowed per carry to opposing RBs.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Outside of Derrick Henry, the waters are murky at RB and I don't know that there's a clear play at the position this week. Dalvin Cook is still listed as "Questionable", but appears to be trending in the right direction...he's a sneaky GPP play if in the lineup. Najee Harris was targeted a ridiculous 19 times in Week 3, though I imagine the return of Steelers WR Diontae Johnson will eat into that volume. That said, Big Ben is the new #CheckdownGawd and the game environment should be a good one for Harris. We expected a breakthrough game for Saquon Barkley last week and he came through with 21.4 DK points against the Falcons, unfortunately, he draws a brutal matchup against the Saints in Week 4. Who knows what's up with the Detroit Lions backfield, but D'Andre Swift's obvious talent is hard to ignore. On the other side of that game, Chicago's David Montgomery will once again be a workhorse and should find some room to run for the first time in a couple of weeks. We've quickly learned that we want to target the Seattle Seahawks with running backs, but the San Fran backfield (as always) is a total unpredictable mess, with Eli Mitchell currently "Questionable", Trey Sermon looking underwhelming, and Kyle Shanahan being, you know, Kyle Shanahan.

DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 4 Picks

Terry McLaurin - WAS @ ATL ($6,900)

Over the first three weeks of the season, Terry McLaurin has faced three teams that rank inside the top-five in the NFL in the fewest yards allowed per target to the WR position. Just a week removed from being shadowed by Buffalo's all-world corner Tre'Davious White, things should open up for McLaurin in Week 4, as he's set to square off against Fabian Moreau and an Atlanta Falcons unit that stands 20th in the league in yards allowed per target and 26th in overall Pass Defense DVOA. The schedule has been brutal for Washington's WR1, but the usage has been there, as he's been on the field for all but four of Washington's offensive snaps this season and has been targeted a combined 21 times in Taylor Heinicke's two games as the starter. Despite the relatively quiet start to the season, F1 already has one 30 DK point game in the books, and more fireworks could be in store this week at very low ownership.

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine - TEN @ NYJ ($3,200) 

We've already talked about Tennessee's Derrick Henry in this week's article, so we know that this is a smash spot for King Henry due to both the expected game environment against the Jets and Tennessee's banged-up receiving corps. However, we also must remember that this is the NFL, a league where lots of unexpected things happen each and every week. So while it's not likely, there are certainly some scenarios in which the Titans passing attack dominates this game, despite being at less than full strength. Second-year man Nick Westbrook-Ikhine is anything but a household name, but he stepped in to play 78% of Tennessee's offensive snaps after A.J. Brown's injury last week. He converted the opportunity into a 4/58/1 stat line and should once again be in line for an increased workload in this winnable matchup at just $3.2k on DraftKings.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

No shortage of strong options at WR on this slate, though we know there's always underlying volatility that comes with the position. Davante Adams carries the best DFS floor/ceiling combo on the slate due to both his elite talent and volume. Three games and three monster outings for Cooper Kupp, who finds himself in another juicy spot against Arizona this week. Giving other Rams pass-catchers a look might not be a bad idea in GPPs though, with Robert Woods and even Van Jefferson both in large-field tournament consideration for me. On the other side of this matchup, DeAndre Hopkins will likely see a heavy dose of Jalen Ramsey, which brings Arizona's secondary receivers - Christian Kirk and Rondale Moore - into play. Stefon Diggs has a monster game coming soon and it feels like Calvin Ridley should too. Lots to love in several specific game environments: Justin Jefferson & Adam Thielen vs OBJ, DK Metcalf vs Deebo Samuel, CeeDee Lamb & Amari Cooper vs D.J. Moore. Is it redemption week for Hollywood Brown after multiple huge drops against Detroit? K.J. Osborn busted as the cheap chalk in Week 3, but nonetheless remains a viable salary saver.

DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 4 Picks

Kyle Pitts - WAS @ ATL ($5,000)

As we head into Week 4 we're still waiting for the Kyle Pitts blow-up game. The advanced metrics that we want to see are in place... he's running routes on a massive 93.9% of his offensive snaps this season and has totaled 133 Air Yards - a number that's nowhere near Kelce or Waller levels, but still places him inside the top-10 in the NFL among TEs. Unfortunately, it just hasn't happened for Pitts - or this Arthur Smith-designed Atlanta offense - yet. As the Falcons continue working out the kinks there will likely be several more duds for the rookie TE, though his talent and usage should also conjure up some spike games as well. I'm willing to stay the course in GPPs.

Mike Gesicki - IND @ MIA ($4,000)

The athletic Dolphins tight end was on a milk carton with Tua Tagovailoa at the helm in Week 1 but has found a willing dance partner in backup QB Jacoby Brissett. The only TE that's topped Gesicki's 18 combined targets over the past two weeks is Travis Kelce...by one. His 207 Total Air Yards trail only Kelce and Darren Waller through three games. Yes, he's playing with a backup QB in a bland offense, but volume can cover a lot of sins, especially on a full PPR site like DraftKings.

SATURDAY UPDATE: 

Maybe more so than any other week to this point, "The Kelce Rule" is in effect on this slate. Bounce back week for T.J. Hockenson? Washington's Logan Thomas has played EVERY OFFENSIVE SNAP this season and draws a soft matchup against Atlanta. Tyler Higbee is another workhorse TE and remains affordable at just $4.6k. Elite tight ends have had some success against the Ravens and Denver's Noah Fant brings serious talent to the table. New York is down a couple of key pass-catchers, can often-injured Evan Engram fill the void now that he's back in the lineup?

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