RADIO
Joe Nicely's DraftKings NFL DFS picks and lineup sleepers for Week 1. His top daily fantasy football recommendations to target for DraftKings DFS contests.
Hi there, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Break The Slate! If you read this article last year then you know what we're about here, but if you are a new reader, let me quickly summarize our goals with this article. We'll spend each week discussing a few NFL DFS plays at each position for the DraftKings main slate. I'll highlight my favorite players and breakdown my reasoning behind them.
I try to update the article on Saturdays to reflect any significant injuries or late-breaking news, as the landscape of the slate can change quickly in the NFL throughout the course of a week, so I hope that you will drop in to check those out before finalizing your lineups. Let me also say that Week 1 specifically is the most unpredictable week of the NFL season and generally serves as something of a "feeling things out" period. That said, thoroughly preparing ourselves will give us a legitimate leg up on a Week 1 slate that is always crammed full of new, casual NFL DFS players.
These DraftKings lineup recommendations are based on matchups, projected ownership, overall upside/talent levels, opportunity, and other factors such as Vegas odds, home-field advantage, and more. There are quite a few great plays available, so read on to find out which players are the best for Week 1. Be sure to also check out our weekly FanDuel DFS lineup picks and lots of other great NFL DFS articles and NFL DFS tools to help you win big! Good luck with your DraftKings DFS lineups, let's Break The Slate together!
DraftKings DFS Quarterbacks - Week 1 Picks
Kyler Murray - ARI @ TEN ($7,600)
Week 1 is always something of a guessing game, and while we should be willing to embrace volatility in some spots in order to gain GPP leverage, there's nothing wrong with taking a couple of layups where we can find some level of "certainty".
Arizona QB Kyler Murray qualifies. We can expect this offense to once again run completely through Murray - a player that looked like a legitimate MVP contender over the first half of 2020 before struggling with an injury over the latter portion of the year - both this season as a whole and in this Week 1 matchup against a Titans defense that was one of the NFL’s worst last year and finished 29th in Total Defense DVOA.
Murray’s DFS ceiling and floor are exponentially increased by his ability on the ground, as he racked up an average 51.2 rushing yards per game and totaled 11 TDs on the ground last season.
Jalen Hurts - PHI @ ATL ($6,400)
If you love the aforementioned Kyler Murray play but are hesitant to pull the trigger on his price tag, Jalen Hurts is a "Kyler Murray Lite" type of option that comes with a noticeable discount. At $6.4k, Hurts brings a tremendous DFS floor to the table thanks to his rushing ability. In his four starts for Philly last year his legs accounted for eye-opening fantasy-point production, as he totaled DK point contributions of 15.4, 6.9, 12.3, & 13.6 just on the ground. That's an average of 12.05 DK points per game without ever throwing a pass! His upside is also intriguing in this matchup against a Falcons defense that - while likely to be improved after an offseason overhaul - ranked dead last in the NFL in both DK points allowed to the QB position and yards allowed per pass last year.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
This will likely be the lightest version of "Saturday Updates" that we'll have this season, as there are very few injuries of note on the slate and we've had plenty of time to digest the Week 1 salary scale. At the QB spot, KC's Patrick Mahomes wasn't highlighted in this week's write-up, but I feel it goes without saying that Mahomes is always in consideration. The same can be said for Buffalo's Josh Allen. Below Jalen Hurts at $6.4k the volatility at the position increases dramatically, though there are some viable, inexpensive pieces that can be utilized in stacks, such as Joe Burrow, Jameis Winston, and Zach Wilson, while New England's rookie signal-caller Mac Jones stands out as mispriced in cash-game formats.
DraftKings DFS Running Backs - Week 1 Picks
Christian McCaffrey - NYJ @ CAR ($9,500)
Volume is a word that you'll see discussed in this article often throughout the season. Put simply, volume is gold in NFL DFS and despite losing the majority of 2020 to an injury, Carolina's Christian McCaffrey is still the volume king. CMC opened the 2020 season priced at $10k for each of the first two games, so while it feels weird to say it, his $9.5k salary for the '21 season opener constitutes something of a discount. The Panthers will not hesitate to feed McCaffrey the ball both on the ground and through the air, and this retooled Jets defense should pose little obstacle to the Stanford alum. Week 1 pricing is notoriously soft and that's once again the case this year. This flexible salary scale offers us a tremendous opportunity to roster McCaffrey on the slate.
James Robinson - JAX @ HOU ($6,400)
This is a really nice "locked-in volume + great matchup" spot for James Robinson. Robinson made a true splash as a rookie in 2020, proving himself to be an effective dual-threat back for the Jags. He was targeted an average of 4.3 times per game last year, while also toting the rock 240 times for 1,070 yards and 7 rushing TDs. It looked as though Robinson's growth would be severely limited when Jacksonville drafted a dynamic back, Travis Etienne, earlier this year, but Etienne's season-ending injury during camp opens the door for Robinson to once again see a large amount of volume in this Jags offense. The matchup is a dreamy one, as the Texans were unquestionably the worst run defense in the league last year and I don't expect the Houston unit to noticeably improve in 2021.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
There isn't a huge difference between McCaffrey, Dalvin Cook, and Alvin Kamara who are in my opinion, the clear-cut top three RB options on the slate. However, with so much value available throughout the salary scale, these high-priced backs will also be extremely popular, with tons of lineups containing one or two of these guys. So there's something to be said for looking at some mid-priced plays with high-volume expectations such as Steelers rookie Najee Harris and Bengals workhorse Joe Mixon. I'll also toss in Antonio Gibson and Mike Davis as sub-$6k RBs that are certainly worth targeting.
DraftKings DFS Wide Receivers - Week 1 Picks
Stefon Diggs - PIT @ BUF ($7,600)
There are several viable spend-up options at the WR position this week, but Buffalo's Stefon Diggs sticks out as my favorite high-priced play at the position. Diggs thrived in his first year in this Bills offense, leading the NFL in both receiving yards (1,846) and receptions (147) last season. He also led the NFL in targets (197) and was targeted an average of 10.4 times per game. We can expect more of the same from this Bills offense in 2021, as OC Brian Daboll somehow didn't get a head coaching job and their core offensive weapons all return. Buffalo threw the ball at a 61.71% clip last season - the 11th-highest rate in the NFL - and I wouldn't be surprised to see that number go even higher this year. As for the matchup, Diggs routinely shreds man coverage, which is what we can expect from this Pittsburgh defense. He lit the Steelers up to the tune of 10 catches for 130 yards and a score when these two teams met last season and his combination of talent, matchup, and volume points toward another big outing for him this go-'round.
Marquez Callaway - GB @ NO ($3,400) vs Michael Pittman Jr. - SEA @ IND ($4,100) vs Parris Campbell - SEA @ IND ($3,700)
I'm pretty sure that my bosses here at RotoBaller like it when I keep this article fairly straightforward, but I have been known on occasion to howl at the moon. Thankfully, they tolerate me when I sometimes wander off the beaten path because they understand that, sometimes, thinking outside of the box is the key to unlocking big wins in GPP formats. So I hope you'll grant me this little detour and apply the thought process not only to this Week 1 slate, but as a comprehensive mindset going forward this season.
I'm a Knoxville resident and lifelong University of Tennessee Volunteer fan, so I've pretty much had Marquez Callaway circled as a breakout candidate for the past year or so, but a funny thing happened on the way to Week 1, the former Vol has morphed into the uber chalk of the season-opening slate. Don't get me wrong, I love me some Marquez, but an expected-to-be-massively-owned-still-developing-player-in-a-now-Drew Brees-less offense-against-a-tough-Green Bay-secondary is a logical fade candidate in large-field tournament formats.
Because today's NFL DFS players are so sharp, there's already been a steady wave of ownership pivoting to Indy's Michael Pittman, another talented young player with a too-cheap price tag. But what if everyone is moving to the wrong Colt? Parris Campbell has played all of nine career games since 2019, but if there's ever a time to gamble on him being healthy, I suppose it's in Week 1. With TY Hilton currently out of the picture for this Indy offense, Pittman will slide into the alpha role, while Campbell will occupy the slot. Pittman is a nice player and a fine DFS option, but I think it's fair to say that the often-injured Campbell is going extremely overlooked in this spot and represents a really nice 4D-type chess move in a tournament like the Milly Maker.
At the end of the day there are no wrong plays in this trio, but the types of contests you are playing should be a serious consideration when locking one of them in. Marquez in cash and single-entry stuff, Pittman makes sense in smaller tournaments, while Campbell is the type of dart-with-upside option that could help you gain ground against massive GPP fields.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
A plethora of options that are almost too numerous to list. Strong high-priced and value plays abound at the WR position this week. The most notable high-priced receivers are Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, and Calvin Ridley for obvious reasons, while value abounds in the form of dirt-cheap options like Rondale Moore, Elijah Moore, and the players highlighted in this week's write-up. There are also numerous stacking combinations with the Vikings, Jags, and Bengals units sticking out.
DraftKings DFS Tight Ends - Week 1 Picks
Travis Kelce - CLE @ KC ($8,300)
Ahhh yes...my nemesis position. The TE spot was so rough for me last year that I instituted something called "The Kelce Rule" over the latter portion of the 2020 season. It's pretty simple and goes something like this: If Travis Kelce is on the main slate and healthy, you play him. No matter the price, no matter the matchup...you play him. Now while I plan on relaxing "The Kelce Rule" a bit this year (at least initially), the strategy remains viable because he is such a totally different animal than anyone else we're gonna find at the TE position. Kelce finished second in the NFL in targets - not the tight end position, the entire NFL - last season with 185. He also finished second in the league in both receptions (176) and receiving yards (1,776), while finishing tied for third in receiving TDs with 14. To steal a basketball term, Kelce is a unicorn. As a result, the normal rules don't really apply.
Kyle Pitts - PHI @ ATL ($4,400)
Speaking of unicorns, many believe that Atlanta's rookie TE, Kyle Pitts, is the next one at the position. The Falcons made Pitts the highest-drafted TE in history earlier this year. If his measurables and film from his time at the University of Florida are true indicators, he has the type of slate-breaking upside that we rarely encounter at the TE position. The youngster should be immediately thrown into the fire in this Falcons offense and profiles to be the second option behind Calvin Ridley. He'll square off against an Eagles defense that allowed a MASSIVE 75% catch rate to opposing TEs last season, a mark that was the worst in the NFL.
SATURDAY UPDATE:
Very little for me to add at the TE spot, as my personal lineups be made up of 100% Pitts or Kelce. I suppose there are ownership reasons to search out other options, but the TE position is so shaky that I'm comfortable limiting my exposure to these two players that I'm confident in.
