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Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 12 lineups in 2022. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.
That's right, Ellis Johnson is back! And yes, this isn't the Thursday night Start 'Em Sit 'Em article once again. I must've done a good job last week because we are back for another round of Boom Bust plays for Week 12.
Last week was a great way to start my contribution to this article. We had Bust picks of Kirk Cousins (2.2fpts) and A.J. Brown (6.5fpts), and also had successful Boom picks of Josh Palmer (26.6fpts) and David Montgomery (19.6fpts).
Welcome to my second edition of this article for 2022. I'm going to try to continue this streak and provide a wide variety of players to help with any lineup, regardless of league size. If articles aren't you're jam, check out my shorter version of this article on TikTok @FiresideFantasy_FFL.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Laying the Boom
Joe Burrow (QB, CIN)
Coming off a massive divisional win where he tied his career high of four touchdown passes, I expect Burrow to stay Shiesty this week. If you recall last week, I also targeted this Titans secondary with my Boom QB pick. Although Aaron Rodgers couldn't take advantage of this muffin of a matchup, the Titans are still allowing the sixth-most fantasy points to the position, the most passing yards per game, and fourth-most passing touchdowns.
Last week, we saw Tee Higgins explode with 13 targets for nine receptions and 148 yards. Plus, there is a good chance Ja'Marr Chase returns to the Bengals lineup this week. Regardless of Chase's availability, I like Burrow's chances to produce with Higgins and Tyler Boyd. However, Ja'Marr Chase would clearly be the cherry on top for this Boom play.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
From last week's Bust column to this week's Boom section, I want to give you the confidence to continue starting with James Conner. Last week, in an absolute blowout, Conner salvaged his fantasy day with a touchdown. However, that was also against the best-run defense in the league. This week, he gets to go against the Chargers who are allowing the third-most fantasy points per game to the position, second-most rushing yards, and a touchdown per game to the RB position.
Even if you disregard the matchup, Conner is becoming a must-start every week. Two weeks ago, he played 96% of the team's snaps, and last week he played 77%. Considering that the Cardinals played their backups for almost the entire fourth quarter, that's an elite opportunity. Any back who is on the field that much and on a relatively powerful offense needs to be started. Plus, the matchup this week should be a buffet of fantasy points for all positions.
Parris Campbell (WR, IND)
As a dynasty manager who was victory-lapped selecting Hakeem Butler over Campbell in 2019, this hurts me. However, I think everyone has completely forgotten about the talented fourth-year WR. Considering he is the WR34 in PPR formats, it's shocking that he can still be found on waiver wires.
The biggest thing with his production is the return of Matt Ryan. Ryan has clearly shown that he loves to dump the ball on short routes across the middle of the field. Over his last four games with Ryan under center, Campbell has 38 targets and three touchdowns.
This week, he faces a Steelers defense on Monday night that is allowing the most fantasy points, yards, and touchdowns to the position. My only concern is that this Colts' defense could unravel Kenny Pickett quickly, decreasing the Colts' need to throw. However, if you have Campbell or need a pickup and play, this is an excellent opportunity to impress your league with a savvy start.
Foster Moreau (TE, LVR)
Coming off a massive performance of one catch for 33 yards, I'm telling you to trust the process and have him as a Boom play this week. Since Darren Waller has been out, Moreau is playing nearly every offensive snap. Plus, without Hunter Renfrow and Waller, he is one of three reliable targets with Davante Adams and Mack Hollins.
This week, he faces a Seattle team that is allowing the second-most fantasy points to the position with 15.6 per game. To put this in perspective, the Lions are allowing the third-most per game with 12.7 fantasy points. Seattle can not stop the TE, and Moreau has shown he has Derek Carr's trust both between the 20s and the red zone. I think he is a top-six play this week, because I'm calling for the Pie Shop* to be open this week.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 6-6)
Bust Picks
Ryan Tannehill (QB, TEN)
With my Boom QB on one side of this game, I have my Bust call on the other side. That's right, despite Tannehill overcoming the odds the last two weeks against a tough Packers secondary in cold weather and a tough Broncos defense, I am weary to trust him again.
In this rematch of the AFC Divisional round game from 2020, it's going to be tough for Tannehill to find success. The Bengals are allowing the fifth-fewest fantasy points, the sixth-fewest passing touchdowns, and the seventh-fewest rushing yards to the position. Plus, the Bengals are middle of the league in stopping the run. I expect the Titans to find their success with Derrick Henry and avoid Tannehill airing it out against this tough defense that picked him off three times in their playoff matchup.
Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
It’s weird seeing the RB12 in PPR formats as a Bust play. However, I am worried about him this week especially coming off of a mediocre 7.2 fantasy point outing. In fact, in his four games this season where he failed to find the endzone, he has scored less than 10 fantasy points in three of them.
I don't like his chances of a TD in this matchup. After last week's dominant defensive performance, the Patriots overtook the 49ers as the team allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position. Considering Mattison always manages to have some touches, the 14.2 fantasy points per game allowed by the Patriots is not enough to split. Of course, Cook can always manage a touchdown, but if he doesn't find pay dirt, it might be a long day for the perennial RB1.
CeeDee Lamb (WR, DAL)
Oh, we're feeling spicy this Thanksgiving. From calling for the RB12 to be a bust to now saying the WR7 in PPR formats won't have a good week, I might look really silly in next week's column. What do the kids say nowadays? Yolo? Well, that's how I'm feeling.
Coming off a game where this Cowboys team didn't need to do a lot to dominate a miserable Vikings team, they face a divisional rival who just got dominated in their own right. However, unlike the Vikings, the Giants are allowing the fifth-fewest TDs, fifth-fewest fantasy points, and the seventh-fewest yards to the WR position. I expect this to be a low-scoring match, with two teams who are very familiar with each other. Of course, Lamb will still manage to have a solid floor, but if he scores fewer than 10 fantasy points in Half PPR, I'll call this pick a success.
George Kittle (TE, SF)
How does that song go (Forgot About Dre)? Dre and I stood next to a burned-down house, with a can full of gas and a hand full of matches, and still weren't found out. Well, considering I'm calling for bad weeks from the RB12, WR7, and now TE3 (since Week 3), I could easily become the house in that scenario.
Jokes aside, Kittle looked unbelievable last week against the Cardinals, where he went for 84 yards and two scores. However, from facing the team allowing the most fantasy points to the position to the second-fewest, I expect Kittle to fall back to Earth quickly against a stout Saints team. Of Kittle's eight games played, four of them were below six fantasy points, and four were over 11 fantasy points. I think this Saints team will be able to slow down Kittle, making him the odd man out for an offense overflowing with talent.
There we have it, some bold Boom takes and some wild Bust takes. Catch me next week as I either reevaluate my entire life or continue writing this column. Happy American Thanksgiving everyone!
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