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Ellis' fantasy football start 'em and sit'em for Week 11 lineups in 2022. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.
Hello everyone! My name is Ellis Johnson, and yes, this isn't the Thursday night Start 'Em Sit 'Em article. For the last three years, I have been writing the RotoBaller Thursday night preview, along with original articles. So why am I here? Well, I am now picking up this article as well for the rest of the 2022 season!
Huge shoutout to my colleagues Brandon Murchison and Joe Nicely, who kept this article going this season. Unfortunately, you'd not have a catchy name like Brandon's Boos and Woos, but I'm here to drop some fire fantasy analysis much the same. This week with seven games having an Over-Under of 41.5 points or fewer, boom players will come at a premium.
Welcome to my first edition of this article for 2022. I'm going to try and provide a wide variety of players to help with any lineup, regardless of league size. Thank you for taking the time to read my work, now let's dive in.
Editor's Note: Identify fantasy football draft busts, overvalued ADPs, and key players to avoid so you can draft with confidence this season.
Laying the Boom
David Montgomery (RB, CHI)
Hiding in the rushing shadow of Justin Fields is David Montgomery. Perennially one of the most underrated fantasy backs, this year has been no different. However, due to injuries and the emergence of Khalil Herbert, he has only been the RB32 on the season. So how can he be a boom option?
Well, this week Herbert was placed on the IR, leaving Montgomery to man the backfield himself. If you have not watched a lot of Bears games this season, it's important to recognize that Montgomery has looked great all season. Primarily his lack of fantasy production has come at the hands of Fields and Herbert stealing work. This week, he only has to worry about Fields and is going against the Falcons. The Falcons are allowing nearly a rushing touchdown and 100 rushing yards per game to the running back position. Fire up Montgomery and you might sneakily find yourself an RB1 ROS.
Aaron Rodgers (QB, GBP)
For anyone who has been holding onto Rodgers this season, it’s finally time to lock him in as a starter. If not this week, I recommend making a last-minute deal before the trade deadline because there won’t be a better matchup.
The Packers committing to the run more than ever before, but I can’t imagine they’ll have a lot of success against this Titans team who has been elite against the run game since Week 2. The good news is that the Titans are bleeding yards through the passing game and allowing the fourth-most fantasy points to opposing QBs. Rodgers will be forced to pass in this game, and his touchdown efficiency makes him a QB1 this week.
Russell Wilson (QB, DEN)
In case you missed Thursday, I wanted to give you another play outside of Rodgers. Although Rodgers had a fine fantasy day, it definitely wasn't a Boom performance. So why not take another swing with an equally frumpy, Russell Wilson?
I won't bore you with all the statistics that show how bad Wilson has been this year. Instead, let's look at his matchup. Vegas is allowing the second most fantasy points to the QB position, along with the second most passing touchdowns per game. The best part is that Vegas also has the fourth fewest interceptions per game. This is a Raiders team that basically begs for teams to pass on them and rack up points. As a result, I expect Vegas' offense to keep up the scoring for a classic AFC West shootout.
Josh Palmer (WR, LAC)
Brampton, Ontario's own Palmer is in line for a big week this week. Regardless of Keenan Allen's availability, I think Palmer is ready to shock the world on primetime.
Without Allen and Williams the last two weeks, Palmer has had 18 targets and 150 yards. His issue is that he hasn't scored a TD with the increased usage. However, it's only a matter of time before he has a big game and finds the endzone. That said, there isn't a better time than this week against a high-powered Kansas City offense that is allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the WR position. That's right, I'm calling for the Pie Shop* to be open for Palmer this week and have him as a top-20 WR option.
*Pie Shop: An Australian term (often used in Rugby League) to describe who will score a Try (or in this case touchdown) this week. (Season Calls: 5-5)
Greg Dulcich (TE, DEN)
It's hard calling for a TE Boom each week. That's because any TE can catch a pass for one yard and a score and would be considered a success. However, I'm going to try and find options that could bring you those week-winning 15+ fantasy point performances (outside of Travis Kelce and Mark Andrews).
This week, we have the Dulcich taking on the Raiders. The Raiders are allowing the fifth-most fantasy points to the position and are finding themselves in high-scoring matches. With Jerry Jeudy most likely sitting out for this game, I think Dulcich will receive enough targets to have a solid floor, and athleticism to become a Boom play in this matchup.
Bust Picks
Kirk Cousins (QB, MIN)
This is not at all meant to be disrespectful to the Vikings this season. In fact, I have them winning this game handily. However, the Cowboys' defense has been very good against QBs. Although last week Aaron Rodgers found success, this was because of ridiculous touchdown efficiency. Unlike Rodgers, that's not Cousins' specialty.
The Cowboys are allowing the seventh-fewest fantasy points to the position this season and the fourth-fewest passing yards. I expect this Cowboys team will bring relentless pressure all day against the Vikings, which has never been Cousins' specialty. I think he is still playable, but if you've been riding his success all season, I'd be a little cautious.
James Conner (RB, ARI)
It was great to see Conner come back and find the endzone twice last week. In fact, in his last two games back, he has seen phenomenal usage. Last week, he saw 96% of the team's snaps. Plus this week, they released Eno Benjamin. So why is he a bust?
The 49ers have been incredible on defense this season. They are allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position with 14.1, while the team allowing the third-fewest is allowing 15.6. That's elite disparity. They have also been allowing the lowest yards per carry and yards per game to running backs. Conner is not known for his efficiency, making this matchup primed to disappoint those chasing last week's points.
A.J. Brown (WR, TEN)
I know this isn't what fantasy managers want to see coming off of a one-reception and seven-yard performance on Monday, but I fear it'll be another tough week. A.J. Brown is a star, and he can easily make tough matchups look silly. However, this week he faces a Colts team that is allowing the second-fewest fantasy points to the position.
It's not just the Colts' defense I am worried about, but it's how I see this game playing out. This Colts team just saw the Commanders exploit a weakness of this Eagles team by running the rock excessively. If there is one thing this Colts team can do and succeed at, it's run up the gut. I fear that the Eagles will once again struggle for the time of possession, decreasing this offense's potential. Thankfully A.J. Brown has the efficiency to overcome this, but it's a tall order against this defense.
Tyler Higbee (TE, LAR)
I get it, without Cooper Kupp, Tyler Higbee is very enticing. However, he is facing a Saints team that is allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position. Although he had a good week last week, in his last three games with Mathew Stafford, he has only had three receptions total. He could salvage his day just off of target volume, but I'm afraid he might give you another goose egg in this tough matchup.
Thank you for reading my first edition of Fantasy Boom or Busts for Week 11. I hope you all have a great day and enjoy your football!
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