Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups

December 20, 2020

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 15 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

Week 14 of the NFL season brought many ups and downs for fantasy managers that were looking to advance in the playoffs. Whether it was surprising inactive announcements due to Covid or sustained injuries, players declaring themselves inactive on social media, or your quarterback leaving for large portions of the game to take care of some business in the bathroom, managers had plenty of hurdles to pass through. But at the end of the day, much of what we have seen throughout the season remained the same. The leaderboard at each position was filled with your typical household names at the top but also mixed in with those longshots that took advantage of great matchups. Cam Akers breakout game (21.4 FPPG) took up much of the discussion heading into the weekend. But players like Baker Mayfield, Drew Lock, and Mitchell Trubisky were all QB1 finishers last week speaking to the parody that we continue to see in fantasy football in 2020.

Look for that to again continue as we get into the semifinals round in most fantasy leagues. If your roster construction has been done right to this point, you will have fewer questions to answer come game-day. For the most part, your starting lineups should be set, but there will be those moves that should be made based on matchups. Youngsters like Jalen Hurts and Tua Tagovailoa are starting to find their stride, which could make for intriguing starts. But now you also have the ever-evolving QB situation for the Saints as Drew Brees is close to returning, leaving Taysom Hill (a viable QB1 for weeks) as an afterthought in lineups. The revolving door at the running back position also continues to be a headache for managers with the drama surrounding players like Christian McCaffrey and Joe Mixon appearing to be closer to shutting it down instead of playing. The injuries we see every week still play a larger role for managers and Week 15 is no exception. With potential holes in your starting lineups, matchup plays are key. Because when it's win or go home time, the fewer mistakes you make with lineups means a greater chance of advancing to the championship round in your fantasy playoffs.

With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers have to trust matchup decisions more than ever. That is what we do here for you with the Woos and Boos for Week 15. We Woo the players that are typically under the radar but could shine with plus matchups. While we Boo those every week starters that could be set-up to disappoint as they face difficult situations.

Week 15 Woos

Jared Goff vs. New York Jets

Goff has been the epitome of "Jekyll and Hyde" at the position since the Rams' Week 9 bye. Every other week has been a QB1 finish, while the others he has been largely useless for fantasy managers. He is top-10 at the position in both attempts (475) and passing yards (3,499) but is 17th in passing scores (18) which shows his inefficiencies that can be maddening at times. But look for that to not be the case in Week 15 as the Rams will be facing a Jets secondary that is the worst in the league over the last four games (25.51 FPPG) and has surrendered a staggering 12 scores over that period. If you have questions surrounding your starting QB heading into the weekend, Goff could be worth a look as a streamer.

J.K. Dobbins vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Although the usage in the Ravens backfield continues to be a head-scratcher, Dobbins has proven to be quite consistent with three straight top-20 finishes at the position. The yardage has still yet to come around (top game of 71 yards) but he has scored in each game which brings a smile to fantasy manager's faces. He may not offer much in terms of value in PPR formats with just 17 receptions on 22 targets, but with a true yards per carry average of 4.8 (rankings fourth in the league), it shows he is on the verge of big things in this offense. In Week 15, he will see an excellent matchup against a Jaguars Defense that has been one of the worst in the league over the last month (31.90 FPPG). Dobbins should be viewed as an RB2 with strong RB1 potential in this game if he sees an uptick in usage.

Jerry Jeudy vs. Buffalo Bills

After a strong stretch during the mid-point of the season (40 targets in Weeks 8-11), Jeudy has fallen back quite a bit as he has been fighting off nagging injuries. Not to mention the inconsistent play from Drew Lock, Jeudy has found himself as an afterthought and on the benches in virtually all formats. He remains top-6 in both air yards (1,229) and deep targets (22), something that could come into play in this week's matchup. In Week 15, he will be facing a Bills secondary that has been very friendly to opposing wideouts over the last four games (39.90 FPPG). Add in the positive game-script for this Bronco's offense facing the Bills, they will likely be playing from behind which could lead to an increase in opportunities for Jeudy. He is a prime candidate as a player you should consider starting as your WR3 this week and could provide a safe floor over others in your lineup.

Jared Cook vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Consider this as your longshot play of the week. Cook has risen from the grave over the last two games with three receptions and a score in back-to-back weeks. His stat-line on the season is very Cook-like as he ranks 25th in receptions (28) but is fifth in scoring with six TDs on the year. I expect to see him in the end-zone yet again in Week 15 as he faces a Chiefs Defense that is allowing 24.93 FPPG to the position over the last four games. The Saints could be trailing in this game, adding more value to the passing game. While the potential return of Drew Brees could be a big hit for Cook's value in this game giving him the solid potential to extend the TE1 finish streak to three games.

Week 15 Boos

Tom Brady @ Atlanta Falcons

On paper, this matchup seems like a potentially big scoring week for Brady and the Buccaneers' offense. But hold the phone on that notion. Brady has had multiple TDs in four games straight, but the turnovers have been creeping up as the offense has been somewhat inconsistent. Oddly enough he ranks as the top QB in the league in both air yards (4,397) and red-zone attempts (75) helping his cause to maintain weekly value. But this week the Bucs go on the road to face a Falcons Defense that is not as soft as they were in the early stages of the season. Over the last four games, the Falcons have only allowed 16.51 FPPG to the position. Making this a bit tougher than it appears on paper. Brady will still be in your lineups but should be viewed closer to a low-end QB1 in Week 15 as opposed to a top-tier star.

Chris Carson @ Washington Football Team

Since his return from injury, Carson has been a staple in fantasy lineups with three straight solid performances and a TD in each. His snap share continues leaving fantasy managers wondering (50.4%, ranking 28th) but his 17.5 FPPG places him seventh in the league and more than makes up for it. This week he will be facing perhaps his toughest test yet against the red-hot Washington Football Team defense. Over the last month, that defense has only allowed 14.15 FPPG to opposing RBs. Add in the rotation with Carlos Hyde and you have a tough hill to climb for Carson in this matchup. He's a tough player to bench, especially during the playoffs, but if you have another player with a better matchup it may be the smart move to pull the trigger.

Terry McLaurin vs. Seattle Seahawks

When you think of Terry McLaurin you think about one of the best receivers in the game today. But recently that has not correlated to fantasy success as he has not finished inside the top-20 at the position since Week 9. With just four receptions on 12 targets over his last two games, he has hit a bit of a rough patch. Look for that to continue against a Seahawks secondary that has been much improved over the unit that we saw early on during the season. Over the last four games, the Seahawks are allowing just 21.28 FPPG to opposing wideouts, ranking them at the top of the league. Add in the question marks at the QB position with a banged-up Alex Smith, the woes for McLaurin could continue at the worst time for fantasy managers.

Dallas Goedert @ Arizona Cardinals

Similar things could be said about Dallas Goedert over the last two games as he has failed to produce TE1 numbers in each game. The struggles of the Eagles passing attack under Carson Wentz led to a demotion as the team installed Jalen Hurts as the new QB for the team. This likely impacts Goedert the most moving forward as the opportunities will continue to be stagnant will the mobile Hurts under center. Now heading into Week 15, he will be facing a Cardinals Defense that has been very strong against the position over the last four games giving up just 9.40 FPPG. Everything adds up to a disappointing game for Goedert making him a player that you should consider benching for a more favorable matchup.

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