Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 14 Lineups

December 10, 2021

Brandon's fantasy football start em and sit em for Week 14 lineups in 2021. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

Barring any changes made to league schedules, Week 14 has become the final week of the regular season for fantasy managers. This season, like many others, has much importance thrust upon the final game of the regular season. In season's past, you typically see a clear division between the playoff-caliber teams and the others that will begin to focus on the next year, but with the mounting injuries that have plagued the league the entire season, we have seen more parity across leagues than ever before. Sure, you'll still have your top-tier teams looking to lock up first-round byes this week, but you'll also see quite a bit of team struggling around the .500 mark holding onto hopes to sneak into the playoffs. While battling injuries and determining those final starting spots in your lineups, avoiding the pitfalls with plus matchups will be key.

Some top matchups can seemingly fall into your lap, much like Javonte Williams in Week 13 during Melvin Gordon's absence. Overall, identifying matchups to take advantage of can become a guessing game for some each week. While many managers go with the method of simply following projections to set lineups, it can also lead you towards failure. Seeing players like Zach Wilson, Gardner Minshew, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and Russell Gage inside their respective positions' top 10 is a key indication that settling on your "studs" isn't always the best method. Now that we are at the end of the fantasy regular season, the compilation of analytical data that managers can use to their advantage is never better. Small sample sizes are now a full season's worth of numbers that show the strengths and weaknesses of a team. Identifying these and taking the appropriate risks with your lineup selections could be the difference between playoffs and prepping for 2022.

As we go through the analytical data and trends, it's apparent that there are some matchups to attack, while there are some that you should avoid. I dive into those numbers and bring to you some names that aren't your typical starters that should be in lineups while also presenting players that could be facing tough matchups in Week 14.

Week 14 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Taysom Hill @ New York Jets

Once Jameis Winston went down with his season-ending knee injury, the assumption was that Taysom Hill would take over as the Saints' starting quarterback. Instead Sean Payton decided to go with Trevor Siemian and the Saints offense suffered for weeks. Hill finally got the chance to start in Week 13 and did as he has done in every other start: he responded with a QB1 week in fantasy. Dating back to 2020, in his five career starts, Hill has yet to score below 17.52 FP in a game. This should be a good sign for his start in Week 14 as he faces a Jets defense that has allowed 18.07 FPPG to the position over the last month. As long as Hill starts, he is on the QB1 radar and should be in your lineup.

Dontrell Hilliard vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

The sample has been small for Hilliard as a Titan, but in his last two games with the team, he has done nothing but produce. He has provided a RB2 and RB1 fantasy finish in back-to-back games even while splitting reps in the backfield with D'Onta Foreman. He may not be the main option in the team's running game, but his speed as a receiving back in open space gives the team a weapon they are sorely lacking at the moment. In Week 14, Hilliard will be looking at a great matchup against a Jaguars defense that is in the bottom third of the league in points allowed to the position over the last month (26.75 FPPG). Managers should look at Hilliard as a Flex option that could return RB2 production in this game.

Laquon Treadwell @ Tennessee Titans

I don't know what year this is, but somehow Laquon Treadwell has made his way back onto the fantasy radar. The Jaguars have simply not been able to find a consistent option in their receiving group in 2021. Chalk it up to injuries, play calling, or just ineptitude by the coaching staff. It seems as though it's anybody's turn to lead the team in receiving each week, but with 13 targets and eight receptions in the last two games, Treadwell has found a small bit of consistency. In Week 14 he will be looking at a good matchup against a Titans secondary that has allowed 31.47 FPPG to opposing receivers over the last four games. If he sees yet another game above 90% of the snaps, Treadwell could be a sneaky option for managers as a WR3 with injuries playing a large part.

Jared Cook vs. New York Giants

Cook is not a name that you think of when it comes to potential starters in fantasy, but with the volatility of the tight end position, many managers have to play the streaming game each week. Ultimately, you're looking for a player that presents the best chance to find the end-zone. With only three scores on the year, that puts Cook at TE14. Struggling with consistency weekly, Cook has only managed to barely fit inside the top 20 at the position with 8.0 FPPG. So why bring up Cook as a potential starter in Week 14 you might ask? It mostly comes down to availability. With the Chargers placing both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams on the Covid list in the middle of the week, it could be likely that Cook sees a rise in target share in this game. Facing a Giants defense that is surrendering 11.40 FPPG over the last month doesn't hurt either. If you're in a pinch at the position in Week 14, Cook could be your guy to help push you towards the playoffs.

Week 14 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Lamar Jackson @ Cleveland Browns

Let's face it, Lamar Jackson has not been worth the draft capital in 2021. He has been maddeningly inconsistent during much of the season with just six QB1 finishes in his 11 games played. Although he currently sits at QB5 in FPPG (22.9), much of his value is tied directly to success in the running game. He ranks 14th in both passing yards (2,865) and passing scores (16). One of his worst games of the year came just two weeks ago in a game against his Week 14 opponent when he threw four interceptions to the Cleveland Browns. Now going on the road, as he continues to struggle, Jackson could be in store for a rough game at the worst time for fantasy managers. Allowing just 11.87 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks over the last four games, the Browns will look to shut down Jackson yet again. With this being such an important week, if you have a viable option to play ahead of Jackson (Taysom Hill), I would definitely think about it.

Kareem Hunt vs. Baltimore Ravens

After missing five games, Hunt returned to the lineup for the Browns before the bye week and struggled in limited action. With scores in four of his first six games before the injury, he was a definite Flex play for managers weekly. Now with Nick Chubb and now D'Ernest Johnson to fight with for work in the backfield, Hunt could not see the opportunity share needed to make an impact in Week 14. He will also again be facing the stout Ravens defense that has only allowed 10.45 FPPG to the position over the last month. With all these negatives facing Hunt this week, it's hard to trust him with a spot in the starting lineup if you need a win to get into the playoffs.

Terry McLaurin vs. Dallas Cowboys

Much like Lamar Jackson, McLaurin has been a disappointment in 2021 based on where he was being selected in drafts. He has just four WR1 finishes on the season, but in games when he's been bad, he's been really bad. In fact, his only WR1 games have been when he has found the end-zone. He is ranked third in air yards (1,288), but that has correlated to just 61 receptions (17th) and 808 receiving yards (18th). He may find the going tough again in Week 14 going against Trevon Diggs and a Cowboys defense that is allowing 32.85 FPPG to the position over the last four games (16th). Typically looked at as a WR1/2 in starting lineups, McLaurin could disappoint in an all-important week and fail to meet those standards. View him as a WR3 as we head into Week 14.

Tyler Higbee @ Arizona Cardinals

Speaking of up and down production, that brings us to Tyler Higbee. On the surface, he brings the numbers you like to see from a player you're thinking about starting. He ranks first at the position in snap share (91.7%), third in routes run (366), and first in red-zone targets (16). However, that has returned just 8.5 FPPG, good for TE18. His efficiency numbers are incredibly low for a player that sees the field as much as he does. Look for that to remain the same in Week 14 as he faces a Cardinals defense allowing just 9.47 FPPG to the position over the last four games. With tight end being such a crapshoot, finding another option to stream over Higbee could be easy.

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