Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups

November 29, 2020

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 12 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

In a week that was consumed by the Taysom Hill debate, Week 11 fantasy scoring found somewhat a bit of normalcy as compared to previous weeks. Players like Dalvin Cook, Ezekiel Elliott, and Tyreek Hill all found themselves successful enough to be among the tops at their respective positions. Even at the tight end position, we saw the usual suspects at the top of the board with Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and Mark Andrews leading the pack. Week 11 was yet again a pass-heavy week in fantasy scoring with only Dalvin Cook crossing over the 21 FP threshold and only three backs on the week went over 100-yards rushing. The numerous injuries to the position throughout the season have diluted the talent level and it shows in scoring each week. Making it even more important for fantasy managers to analyze matchups before setting starting lineups.

Looking ahead to Week 12, it is crunch time for some fantasy managers out there as the playoffs are set to begin in most leagues in two weeks. So throw all the rules out the window in regards to your lineup settings. Don't by just what the projection says before putting players in, really dig down deep into the numbers for all your players. At this point in the year, trades have been made, waivers processed, and you have put together a potentially strong starting squad. But there will still be matchups that cannot be ignored. With the continuing headaches that are injuries, opportunities could be there for a player on your bench to outperform a starter. With all the data we have at our disposal through 11 weeks of the season, matchups to target should jump off the page. Attack those matchups, even if the player is on your bench.

With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers have to trust matchup decisions more than ever. That is what we do here for you with the Woos and Boos for Week 12. We Woo the players that are typically under the radar but could shine with plus matchups. While we Boo those every week starters that could be set-up to disappoint as they face difficult situations.

Week 12 Woos

Daniel Jones @ Cincinnati Bengals

Coming out of the bye week, Jones will look to keep the momentum from his positive game in Week 10. He will be facing a Bengals Defense that is bottom third in points allowed to the position (19.9 FPPG) and could be a sneaky option to play for managers over someone like Lamar Jackson. Jones' play has been all over the map during the season ranking 12th in interceptable passes (15) and second in danger plays (30). But on the flip side, he is among the leaders in red-zone attempts (57) and deep-ball completion percentage (54.5%). If he can level out the bad plays, Jones should put together a solid game and push for a QB1 finish in Week 12.

David Montgomery @ Green Bay Packers

Making his return after missing a game, Montgomery could be the added punch that the paltry Bears offense needs. Sure, he has not been anything special for most of the season with only one RB1 finish on the year and zero 100-yard rushing games. But volume is king and that is what he should see against a Packers Defense that is one of the worst in the league in points allowed to opposing RBs (25.1 FPPG). He ranks inside the top-12 in both targets (41) and receptions (30) but can't see to find his way into the end-zone (two scores on the year). If the Bears hope to keep this game close, they will look to control the clock with Montgomery. That means plenty of opportunities to score. He's not going to put up a monster stat-line, but he's a player that could slot in as your RB2/Flex in Week 12 with a decent matchup.

Christian Kirk @ New England Patriots

Kirk was perhaps the hottest receiver in fantasy just two weeks ago with three straight WR1 finishes. But after two straight subpar games, Kirk's perceived value has diminished. He should get back on track in Week 12 in a matchup against a Patriots secondary that allows 24.8 FPPG to opposing WRs. With DeAndre Hopkins likely seeing Stephan Gilmore in coverage a majority of the game, the field should open up for Kirk and allow for easy receptions. Now with Larry Fitzgerald being declared out, his 73.9% snap share should increase in the game as well. I'm expecting to see Kirk score in this game and should be viewed as a WR3 with WR2 upside this week for fantasy managers.

Trey Burton vs. Tennessee Titans

Burton may not provide a ton of volume to fantasy managers but one thing he does have is a nose for the end-zone (four TDs in seven games). Even though he did not produce in the matchup against the Titans two weeks ago (3/34), the matchup is still intriguing enough to consider streaming him. The Titans are surrendering 9.1 FPPG to the position and with the Colts finding emerging pass catchers (Pittman), things could open up for Burton. If you're in a bind at the position in Week 12, Burton could be worth a stream for managers looking for upside.

Week 12 Boos

Matt Ryan vs. Las Vegas Raiders

As goes the health of Julio Jones so does the fantasy fortunes of Matt Ryan. Once Jones went down with the hamstring injury in Week 11, Ryan was at a loss and finished the game without a passing touchdown. Ryan is third in both attempts (388) and passing yards (2,978) and first in completed air yards (1,981), showing that the opportunities are there. The matchup is there as well with the Raiders being among the worst in the league in points allowed to the position (20.6 FPPG). But it all hinges on Julio Jones. If he is out, or limited, Ryan's value in this game will be diminished. You can't bench him unless you have a better option, but you should temper expectations based on the health of Jones.

Melvin Gordon vs. New Orleans Saints

Coming off of a two-touchdown game and an RB1 finish, Gordon should be a lock for starting lineups right? Wrong. The matchup against the Saints will be the toughest he faces all year. This defense is tops in the league in points allowed to the position (12.5 FPPG) and should find no problem in bottling up Gordon. Gordon has been riding high off of his scores all year (7 TDs), but look for him to be held without in this game. Making him a player that you should look to bench in Week 12.

Tyler Boyd vs. New York Giants

The injury to Joe Burrow may be a catastrophe for the Bengals offense as a whole. We are not expecting a lot from Brandon Allen and that will directly affect Tyler Boyd. He is top-5 in routes ran (396) and receptions (69) and has been a player that is heavily involved in the offense each week. His involvement is likely to take a hit this week with the new QB and facing a Giants secondary that allows just 24.1 FPPG to the position. He's been a staple in fantasy managers' starting lineups but is a prime example of someone you should consider benching for someone with a better matchup in Week 12.

Mike Gesicki @ New York Jets

You can't bring up Mike Gesicki without talking about one of the biggest disappointments in fantasy during the 2020 season. After finishing as a top-15 TE in three of the first five games of the season, he has disappeared. There has been some silver lining as of late with back to back games with five targets. But he has still had trouble finding the end-zone, being held out since Week 3. The matchup this week against the Jets looks great on paper (9.2 FPPG to the position), but he has lost all the trust of fantasy managers. He is the epitome of a "show me" player in fantasy and one that is hard to risk in the starting lineup. If you're feeling antsy, plug him into your lineup, but there are likely several other players worthy of that spot at the position.

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