Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 12 Lineups

November 28, 2021

Brandon's fantasy football start em and sit em for Week 12 lineups in 2021. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters to disappoint or bust.

First and foremost, I would like to start things off on the behalf of the team at Rotoballer by wishing everyone a Happy Thanksgiving! As the calendar rolls over to December, the 2021 fantasy season begins to draw to a close. Every season these are the most crucial weeks for fantasy managers. Depending on your placement in the standings, you could be dragging your knuckles to sneak into the playoffs. Or you could be coasting with a great team to that ever-elusive first-round bye. The ideologies put forth by these different managers can be seen by how they set starting lineups. Being a front-runner sometimes puts you in a position to take fewer chances with lineup decisions. While playing from behind, managers typically have to swing for the fences in an attempt to gain victories because a loss this late in the season could send you packing as your team misses the playoffs.

As the 2021 season draws to a close, it appears as though the wild weekly performances that have been the trend all year will continue. With Trevor Siemian, Colt McCoy. Devonta Freeman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling all being inside their respective position's top 10 a week ago, it's clear that these wild-card player performances will continue to hit. It's become not a matter of if but who will come from nowhere to shine in fantasy each week. The casual fantasy manager will not be able to put their fingers on these players but the more competitive ones are the managers that do the deep dives into the analytics to find the under-the-radar players that can produce big numbers in great matchups. Some weeks it may not amount to much of a point differential in your starting lineups, but in others it's what separates winning from losing. And heading into Week 12, finding those differences can be crucial for some managers.

As we go through the analytical data and trends, it's apparent that there are some matchups to attack, while there are some that you should avoid. I dive into those numbers and bring to you some names that aren't your typical starters that should be in lineups while also presenting players that could be facing tough matchups in Week 12.

Week 12 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Jimmy Garoppolo vs. Minnesota Vikings

Garoppolo has been one of the more consistent quarterbacks in the league over the last month. With multiple touchdown games in four straight and two QB1 finishes over that span, he has become somewhat reliable. On the season, his deep analytical data has been subpar at best, ranking outside the top 20 in multiple categories. The silver lining is his 8.3 yards per attempt, which ranks fourth at the position. All in all, his 16.2 FPPG puts him at QB20 on the season, but is also a number he has eclipsed in three of the last four games. A number he should be able to improve upon in Week 12 as he faces a Vikings defense that has allowed 23.31 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks over the last month. If you are in a bind at QB this week, Garoppolo could be a player to slide into your starting lineup with a great matchup.

Rex Burkhead vs. New York Jets

First off, what year is it? I feel like I am turning back the clock doing a write-up about Burkhead. However, as the carousel of Texans running backs has continued to turn, we find ourselves here. There's nothing that you can look at within the analytical data that supports Burkhead being even remotely close to a viable running back, but by process of elimination, the Texans have decided he will be the player they will lean on. Although the yardage wasn't anything to get excited about, he was able to garner 18 carries in the game. This could be good news for Burkhead in Week 12 if he can see a similar workload. He will be facing a Jets defense that has been downright atrocious against running backs over the last four games. Allowing a league-high 10 touchdowns and 36.20 FPPG, this is a matchup that even Burkhead could take advantage of. He could be viewed as a Flex play for teams needing help this week.

Russell Gage @ Jacksonville Jaguars

With the Falcons lacking a weapon opposite Kyle Pitts with Calvin Ridley away from football, the team has been searching for a consistent option outside. Since returning from injury, Russell Gage has slowly been becoming that guy. His 34 targets over six games aren't exactly great, but with two eight-target games over the last three, the arrow is pointing up. Matt Ryan is starting to get comfortable looking his way, something that can only help this passing attack. The Week 12 matchup should be one for Gage to see a production boost, facing a Jaguars' defense that has allowed 36.55 FPPG to the position over the last four games. Gage's potential in this game could vault him into WR3 consideration for Week 12.

Evan Engram vs. Philadelphia Eagles

You know it's a tough week when you are suggesting Evan Engram as a potential quality starter. On the season, he ranks outside the top 15 in largely every category at the position, including ranking 19th in two of the most important categories with just 28 receptions and two scores. All of this has limited his potential to a lowly 7.7 FPPG on the year. With that being said, he is staring at a very solid matchup in Week 12. He will be facing an Eagles defense that has been very generous to the position over the last four games, allowing 24.48 FPPG over that span. Starting Engram can be frustrating dealing with his inconsistencies, but this week he is definitely on the TE1 radar.

Week 12 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Ryan Tannehill @ New England Patriots

Tannehill has been on a Jekyll and Hyde pace over the last month with two games finishing as a QB1 and the other two outside the top 15 at the position. His subpar performance last week against the Texans was his first game with just one score since Week 6. He has been steady on the passing yards (2,681) front rankings eighth in the league, but his lack of scoring (13 touchdowns) has limited his production to just 17.3 FPPG. Meeting even that number could be a task for Tannehill as he faces the stout Patriots defense allowing just 5.52 FPPG to quarterbacks over the last four games.

Leonard Fournette @ Indianapolis Colts

Speaking of a player that has been struggling as of late, Fournette has not been over 47 rushing yards or found the end-zone in any of the last three games. On the season, he has surprisingly been an asset to fantasy managers from a PPR standpoint. He ranks inside the top 10 in targets (54), receptions (44), and yards (323). This has helped buoy his fantasy production to the tune of 15.2 FPPG, ranking as RB18 on the season. The lack of production from a rushing standpoint has been concerning and something that may not improve in Week 12 as he faces a Colts defense allowing just 17.53 FPPG to running backs over the last month. Typically, Fournette is a starter for managers as a RB2, Fournette should be viewed as a Flex play at best this week.

Marquise Brown vs. Cleveland Browns

After missing last week due to injury, Brown will be looking to get things back on track as he is coming into this game with 39 targets over his last three games. It's clear that as Rashod Bateman has been seeing the field more often, it has only helped Brown in the coverages he faces. He continues to be a threat down the field as he leads the league in deep targets (21) and ranks 11th in air yards (1,008). Both of those data points have helped him on the season produce quality numbers and rankings as the WR8 with 17.8 FPPG. After the week away, coming back could be an issue in Week 12 with a difficult divisional matchup against the Browns. They are allowing just 27.05 FPPG to the position over the last four games and could limit the damage that Brown could cause in this game. While he is viewed as a fringe WR1 weekly in fantasy lineups, this matchup could see him produce just WR3 numbers at best.

Kyle Pitts @ Jacksonville Jaguars

Pitts has been struggling mightily in recent weeks as he has been viewed as the player to shut down by opposing defenses. The first two games without Calvin Ridley were great for Pitts as he was over 100 yards in both and scoring in one. Since then the going has been rough. He has just 164 receiving yards over the last four games and has not scored since Week 5. The struggles could continue this week as he faces a Jaguars defense that has been terrific against opposing tight ends in recent weeks allowing just 6.95 FPPG. As defenses continue to focus their efforts on Pitts, the numbers will likely continue to suffer. Fantasy managers may be put in a position to play him anyways due to a lack of options.

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