Booms and Busts - Starts and Sits for Week 10 Lineups

November 15, 2020

Brandon Murchison's top starts and sits for your Week 10 fantasy football lineups - sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that may disappoint or bust.

Week 9 in fantasy was primarily dominated by the quarterback and wide receiver positions. We saw 19 QBs score over 20 FP, while we saw 17 WRs reach that point total as well. The biggest disappointment in fantasy scoring had to be the running back position as a whole. Only Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffrey were able to score more than 18 FP on the week. Meaning that by and large, no matter who you started at the RB position, they fell below expectations. Whereas no matter the decision you might have made at QB, that player likely exceeded projections going into the game. But with all the above-average scoring, we did see players take advantage of positive matchups. Players like Drew Lock (33.35 FP), Teddy Bridgewater (31.40 FP), and Jakobi Meyers (28.90 FP) all saw great matchups in front of them, and they did just what fantasy owners needed them to do.

This late into the fantasy season, being self-aware of matchup plays is pivotal and can be the difference between a playoff berth or sitting on the sidelines at the end of the year. With nine weeks of data to analyze, you should be able to put forth the best lineup regardless of who is your typical starters or not. Early on in the season a bad week for a fantasy defense could be an anomaly based on the offense they play against. But at this point is the season it is considered more than a trend, it is who that defense is. For instance, the Seattle Seahawks continue to be a defense that you want to attack from a passing game perspective as most offenses have been successful putting up points weekly. While we know that both the Baltimore Ravens and San Francisco 49ers are both defenses to avoid starting RBs against. Submitting your starting lineups is more than just looking at the player projections each week and putting in the best player. It's knowing which players are set up for success more than others.

With all these pieces in motion, fantasy managers have to trust matchup decisions more than ever. That is what we do here for you with the Woos and Boos for Week 10. We Woo the players that are typically under the radar but could shine with plus matchups. While we Boo those every week starters that could be set-up to disappoint as they face difficult situations.

Week 10 Woos

Jared Goff vs. Seattle Seahawks

Coming off of three straight games outside of the QB1 range, many managers have lost some faith in Goff as a startable option. But nothing says get-right game more than playing the Seahawks. They are last in points allowed to the position (27.9 FPPG) and have allowed multiple scores in six of their eight games. Goff should easily be able to improve upon his poor performance numbers in this game. He currently ranks 11th in passing yards (2,135) and 19th in yards per attempt (7.5). Look for this game to be a back forth scoring affair, leaving plenty of opportunities for Goff to finish as a QB1 in Week 10.

Ronald Jones II @ Carolina Panthers

Ever since Jones lost a fumble in game action two weeks ago, he has found himself in the doghouse. He has totaled just 17 touches over the last two games, landing him solidly on the bench for fantasy managers. We have seen Leonard Fournette out-snap him in each of the last two games, but the numbers would indicate that Jones has produced more when on the field. He has doubled Fournette in rushing yards (538-225) and has more evaded tackles as well (33-11). Look for this backfield to continue to be a mess in Week 10, but the only upside is the matchup. The Panthers are bottom-five in points allowed to the position (21.6 FPPG) and have surrendered the second-most TDs to opposing backs (12). That should mean plenty of room for both backs to produce in this matchup in Week 10. If Arians can get his head on straight and let Jones carry the load, he will have high-end RB2 upside in this game.

Brandin Cooks @ Cleveland Browns

Since the firing of Bill O'Brien, Brandin Cooks has found some consistency in his usage in the Texans offense. With no less than nine targets in each of the last four games, the opportunities have been there and he has produced with two WR1 finishes and a WR2 finish collectively. He has been one of the hottest receivers in fantasy and that should continue in a solid matchup against a Browns secondary that is bottom-five in points allowed to opposing receivers (29.6 FPPG). This defense allows a whopping 65.8 plays per game on average, meaning the Texans should see the field quite a bit. Cooks could see most of the coverage from Denzel Ward, which hurts to a degree but with the Texans moving players around in formation a lot. he should find open space to work. Start Cooks with confidence in Week 10 as he should return WR2 value across all formats.

Austin Hooper vs. Houston Texans

The usage has been going up recently for Hooper as he is starting to find his place in the Browns offense. He currently is top-10 in snap share at the position (80.6%) as well as seventh in target share (19.5%). Both of those numbers have increased in the last three games played before the injury. Now coming back to health he gets a favorable matchup against a Texans Defense that allows 9.0 FPPG to the position. They have allowed a score in two of the last three games played and I expect to see Hooper add to that total. Add in the injury to Odell Beckham during Hooper's absence and his role in the offense should increase even further. He should be considered a solid start in Week 10 and has an upside to finish among the top-5 at the position.

Week 10 Boos

Cam Newton vs. Baltimore Ravens

Newton has bought back the confidence of fantasy managers over the last two games with back-to-back QB1 finishes. But both of those games were against subpar defenses, something he will not have the luxury of in Week 10. He draws the unfortunate situation of facing a Ravens Defense that is among the best in points allowed to the position (18.3 FPPG). He currently ranks at the top in nearly every single rushing category at QB, but the downside is he ranks near the bottom in every passing category as well. Look for the Ravens to limit his rushing abilities in this game, which in turn limits his scoring potential for fantasy managers. This lands him on the bench for Week 10.

Joe Mixon @ Pittsburgh Steelers

Mixon has been absent from fantasy manager's lineups for three weeks now, so naturally, there is an excitement to get him back in the lineup upon return. But we may have to pump the breaks on that excitement this week as he draws a Steelers Defense that allows just 15.0 FPPG to opposing RBs. With the limited scoring potential, he may bring value as just a Flex option this week as opposed to the typical RB1/RB2 production we are used to. I'm not suggesting that you outright bench him unless there are better options on the bench, but temper expectations.

UPDATE: Joe Mixon is officially listed as doubtful for this week.

Adam Thielen @ Chicago Bears

Thielen has been trending in the wrong direction in recent weeks with no more than five targets in each of the team's last three games. That will not be helped in the Week 10 matchup against a Bears secondary that ranks 30th in points allowed to the position (16.7 FPPG). Thielens numbers have been a bit odd on the season as he ranks fifth in snap share (96.9%), 10th in air yards (728), but just 19th in receptions (35), and 23rd in receiving yards (442). I would not look for those to be improved upon in this matchup as the Vikings game-plan will be to keep the ball on the ground with Dalvin Cook. Most managers will likely be in a position to have to start Thielen this week, but view him as a Flex option at best, no more.

Hunter Henry @ Miami Dolphins

When you bring up the name Hunter Henry, many fantasy managers automatically point to a player that is considered a no-brainer TE1 starter. But that has not been the case for him during the 2020 season, as he has only reached that mark once on the year. On average the targets have been there as he ranks seventh at the position (52). But his highest yardage total was achieved back in Week 2 (83 yards) and he has just one score on the season. That trend is likely to continue in Week 10 as he faces a Dolphins Defense that is among the best in points allowed to the position (5.0 FPPG). If you have another option to stream this week, I would advise you to do so.

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