Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 5 Lineups

October 7, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 5 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

Welcome to the enchanted realm of fantasy football as we journey into Week 5, where gridiron gladiators clash in a battle of wits and skill. In this mystical realm, decisions on who to start and who to sit hold the key to victory or defeat. As the seasons change, so do the fortunes of our chosen heroes -- the players we've carefully selected to lead our fantasy teams to triumph. Week 5 brings forth a battleground teeming with possibilities and challenges, where the right decisions can tilt the scales in our favor, bringing us closer to the mythical land of championship glory. Join us as we unveil the secrets and the prophecies that guide us through this week's start-sit conundrums, navigating the treacherous terrains of injuries, matchups, and projections.

In this mystical land, the stars align in peculiar formations, foretelling the destinies of each player on our rosters. We shall decipher the signs and portents to provide counsel on the auspicious choices for the upcoming battles. The ancient runes of injury reports and performance trends shall guide our hand as we deliberate on the sages to summon to our starting lineups and the warriors to hold in reserve. The whispers of fantasy pundits and the ancient scrolls of statistics shall be our guiding lights, leading us toward the fabled path of victory. So, gather 'round, fellow fantasy enthusiasts, as we embark on this epic odyssey of strategic choices and embark on a quest for fantasy glory in the ever-shifting landscapes of Week 5.

As the sun sets and the shadows lengthen, Week 5 emerges as a crucible of challenges and triumphs. The fires of competition burn brightly, and the clash of titans shall resonate across the fantasy realm. With wounded warriors returning to the fray and others nursing injuries in the healer's sanctum, wise decisions on start-sit choices shall prove paramount. Arm yourselves with knowledge and fortitude as we delve into this mystical realm, for in the world of fantasy football, fortune favors the bold and the astute. Let us begin our odyssey into the heart of Week 5, where legends will be written, and destinies shall be forged.

Week 5 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Jordan Love - QB, Green Bay Packers @ Las Vegas Raiders

Jordan Love has been a revelation to begin the 2023 season as he currently ranks as the QB4 in FPPG (22.1). He has provided a QB1 finish in three out of his first four starts with multiple touchdowns in each game. Much of his success can be tied to his ability to find the end zone, ranking as QB5 with eight touchdowns on the season.

But once you dive into the deeper analytics, you find a quarterback who is riding a razor-thin edge of uber-efficiency. He ranks outside the top 13 in both pass attempts (132) and yards (901) on an offense that currently ranks 19th in the NFL in pass plays per game. Love also ranks near the bottom at the position in nearly all the key completion percentage categories. All of this speaks to a quarterback that could return a dud of a week in terms of fantasy production at any moment for fantasy managers.

But don't look for that game to come in Week 5. The Packers will go on the road to face the Las Vegas Raiders, a defense that is currently allowing 20.4 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks (eighth). This game is tied for fifth in Week 5 in implied total at 44.5, which could open things up to become a back-and-forth contest.

If Love can find his rhythm early in the matchup, then the potential is there for yet another QB1 finish. That makes him a viable starting option for fantasy managers who could be looking for a bye-week replacement. Or simply playing the better matchup between the two on their roster.

Tyler Allgeier - RB, Atlanta Falcons vs. Houston Texans

After splitting the share of the workload in the Falcons backfield over the first two games, Tyler Allgeier has seen his snap share decrease each of the last two games. He has just 14 total carries in the last two weeks, which is less than what he had in Week 2 alone (16).

The team is looking to utilize Bijan Robinson more as the lead back, but the Falcons' offense wants to run the ball with both Robinson and Allgeier to control the clock. Even though he sees an average of 7.1 defenders in the box (RB2), Allgeier has managed to provide top 10 numbers in both juke rate (29.4%) and evaded tackles (15). Arthur Smith will continue to run the ball as humanly possible, which benefits Allgeier in terms of touches per game.

Heading into Week 5, Allgeier has likely fallen out of favor with fantasy managers due to his usage over the last two games. But he is a prime candidate for a bounce-back game as the Falcons will be facing a Texans defense that is currently seventh in points allowed to the position (23.0 FPPG).

Although the implied total for this game is currently 41.5, look for the Falcons to shorten the game by leaning heavily on the running attack behind both backs. Allgeier could see between 12-15 touches in this matchup and a strong possibility to score. Call it a hunch, but I see him providing flex production for fantasy managers in Week 5.

Christian Kirk - WR, Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills

After a disappointing game to open the 2023 season, Christian Kirk has rebounded in a big way over the last three weeks. He has seen 34 targets over that span with 24 receptions, which leads the team, and is top-15 at the position. He is playing the role of WR1 for the Jaguars at the moment as Calvin Ridley has been struggling to earn targets, while Kirk has been Trevor Lawrence's first-read on 26.1% of passes. The lone downer when looking into Kirk's stats is that he has seen just one end zone target on the season, which limits additional upside.

On paper, looking at the Week 5 matchup, one would think that facing the Buffalo Bills secondary is not very advantageous. This is a defense that has been among the league's best in points allowed to the position on the season (23.9 FPPG). But the loss of Tre'Davious White will prove costly as they face a Jaguars team in London looking to break out of an offensive funk.

Look for Trevor Lawrence to utilize Kirk out of the slot very often with quick passes to allow him space to work in the open field. With the total of this game among the highest of the week (48.5), the expectation is for plenty of scoring opportunities to be had. This only benefits Kirk as he has the potential to return WR2 production for fantasy managers in Week 5.

Tyler Conklin - TE, New York Jets @ Denver Broncos

This will be my "gut call" of the week. Conklin has quietly put together solid performances over the last three games with Zach Wilson under center. Although he has yet to find the end zone, his 17 targets and 12 receptions over the last three weeks have been encouraging. Over several key categories, Conklin is among the top 15 such as air yards (121), yards after catch (57), and yards per route run (1.45). Another stat that is telling is his 2.06 target separation, which allows Wilson to see space to get the ball to Conklin.

The biggest reason for Conklin being on this list for the week is all because of the matchup. Yes, overall the Jets' offense has been tough to watch all season. But you can call this one a get-right game as they will be facing a soft Broncos defense that currently allows 12.8 FPPG to opposing tight ends.

Vegas also sees this game as a potential high-scoring one with both teams sporting an implied total over 20 points. Call me crazy, but if Conklin sees five receptions in this game, one of them should go for a score. This makes him a borderline TE1 for fantasy managers in Week 5.

Week 5 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Joe Burrow - QB, Cincinnati Bengals @ Arizona Cardinals

It's one of the biggest surprises of the 2023 season, but we are now at the stage where suggesting benching Joe Burrow does not seem crazy at all. He is currently QB34 in FPPG (8.6, and yes you heard that right) with only 32 teams in the NFL. He is averaging a putrid 182 yards passing per game with only two scores to begin the season.

All of this on the third-most attempts at the position behind an offensive line that has given him the second-best protection rate at 90.6%. The calf injury from the preseason has continued to hamper him and it is affecting the Bengals offense as a whole. Aside from fantasy, if the subpar play continues, it may be in the best interest of the Bengals to sit him down for a week or two to get things right.

But as things stand now, Burrow will be playing in Week 5. While the matchup on paper looks great, it is very hard to trust him in the lineup right now if there are better options at play for fantasy managers. He will be facing a Cardinals defense that has been one of the worst in the league in allowing points to opposing quarterbacks (21.1 FPPG).

The Bengals are favored against the scrappy Cardinals and have an implied total of 23.75, a number that they have hit just twice in four games. Many fantasy managers may be in a position where they have no choice but to trust Burrow in their lineups. But with other options like Jordan Love or C.J. Stroud that could be available and playing better, sitting Burrow down until you see glimpses of his true potential could be feasible.

Tony Pollard - RB, Dallas Cowboys @ San Francisco 49ers

Tony Pollard has been off to an expected start as he is currently fifth in the NFL in rushing yards (311) and is RB12 in FPPG (16.6). He is also RB2 with 73 carries on the season and amazingly the RB1 in red zone touches (31). His lack of scoring (two touchdowns in 2023) has been a bit of a concern and is a direct reason why he is below his expected fantasy points per game (21.9).

But playing on an offense that is third in the league in run plays per game, look for Pollard to continue to be heavily involved. Not to mention what he also brings to the table for fantasy managers as a pass catcher, where he is top-five at the position in receptions on the season (15).

All that fantasy goodness will be tough to count on in Week 5 as the Cowboys will be facing the team that has knocked them out of the playoffs in each of the past two seasons, the San Francisco 49ers. This matchup will prove to be a tough test for Pollard as they are currently one of the best in the league in points allowed to the position (15.1 FPPG).

Although the implied total for this game is currently 45, a low-scoring defensive battle is not out of the realm of possibility. This would limit the scoring potential for Pollard, capping any hope of an RB1 finish for fantasy managers in Week 5. He is a must-start player no matter the matchup, but tempering expectations this week would be advised.

Jerry Jeudy - WR, Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets

A sleeper for many in the fantasy industry for 2023, Jerry Jeudy has been off to a very rough start. After missing Week 1, he has just 11 receptions on 17 targets over his first three games. Playing second fiddle to Courtland Sutton was not expected as Jeudy has trailed Sutton in routes run in each game. In fact, Jeudy's routes have decreased in each game he has played.

He currently sits as the WR62 in FPPG with just 8.9, due in large part to the fact that he has yet to score in 2023. There has just not been an area where Jeudy has stood out to begin the season, which is odd. His inability to separate and generate targets is a bit of a concern and could lead to continued subpar performances throughout the year.

Going into Week 5, don't expect to see the Jeudy of old as he will be facing a tough Jets defense that is one of the league's best in points allowed to the position (19.8 FPPG). Although he is not likely to be facing Sauce Gardner in the matchup playing primarily out of the slot, expect the Jets to keep a defensive focus on limiting him.

This game has all the feel of a low-scoring contest, which will limit the scoring opportunities for Jeudy. A player that is likely the WR2/3 on most fantasy rosters, expecting that type of production in Week 5 will be a bit of a reach.

George Kittle - TE, San Francisco 49ers vs. Dallas Cowboys

If you look at Kittle's performance on the year from above, you see a player who currently ranks as TE14 with 7.2 FPPG. But digging deeper into things, you will find a player who took advantage of a great matchup in Week 3 (seven receptions for 90 yards) and has been an afterthought in other contests with a high of 30 yards (Week 2).

He is fourth in snap share at the position (87.5%) and eighth in yards after catch (81), but outside of that, he has simply been mediocre at best. With so much of the offense going through Christian McCaffrey and passes funneled through Brandon Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel, it has left little scraps for Kittle to scoop up.

Much like I talked about with Tony Pollard, expecting many scoring opportunities in this game could prove to be fool's gold. Especially facing a Cowboys defense that is allowing just 6.1 FPPG to opposing tight ends. Looking at Kittle in this matchup, I see a player who is likely producing three catches for limited yardage. Unless he can somehow find the end zone, Kittle is a player who should be benched by fantasy managers for better available options. But locked into many starting lineups, it will be hope and pray time that he can luck out and provide a TE1 finish.

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