Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 3 Lineups

September 24, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 3 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

The excitement of the NFL season continues to build as we enter Week 3 of the 2023 fantasy football season. After yet another week of mounting injuries in Week 2, fantasy football managers are eagerly looking for the best strategies to find players that will boom (or bust) in their lineups. This week's matchups bring both challenges and opportunities, with standout performances and surprising disappointments from some of the league's biggest stars. In this article, we'll break down some key players to consider starting and sitting in your fantasy football lineup for Week 3, helping you gain that all-important edge over your competition.

In Week 3, fantasy managers should pay close attention to emerging stars who showed their potential to begin the season. Rookie sensations, breakout candidates, and established veterans who had a strong start are prime candidates to stay in your starting lineup. Additionally, favorable matchups and injuries to opposing defenses can also influence your start decisions. Players like C.J. Stroud, Kyren Williams, Josh Reynolds, and Zach Ertz came out of nowhere to surprise fantasy managers and boom in Week 2. We'll delve into potential players like these and more, providing insights into why they should be in your fantasy lineup for Week 3.

Meanwhile, determining players primed to bust is just as crucial as finding the perfect matchups. Sometimes, even star players can face tough matchups or injuries that warrant benching them for a week. Fantasy managers should be wary of overreacting to one-week performances and carefully consider the matchups and trends when deciding whom to sit in Week 3. We'll discuss some players with tough matchups and why it may be wise to give them a week on the bench. Approaching these players with caution in Week 3 can help you avoid the pitfalls that could cost you a victory.

Week 3 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Kirk Cousins - QB, Minnesota Vikings vs. Los Angeles Chargers

Through the first two weeks of the NFL season, Cousins has performed admirably. He is currently the QB1 in fantasy PPG (23.0) due in large part to the team's heavy lean on the passing attack. Cousins is averaging 44 attempts per game, which has led to 708 yards (QB2) and six touchdowns (QB1). His yards per attempt (8.0) is higher than it has been over the last four seasons, which shows that he is working the ball downfield more to his influx of weapons. If the running game continues to struggle, there's no reason why Cousins can't continue his strong start.

Cousins should have every opportunity to keep the momentum going in Week 3 with a home matchup against the Los Angeles Chargers, a defense that is currently second in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (24.6 FPPG). In a game that is expected to be a shootout with the highest total on the board for the week (54), both offenses will have ample opportunities to score. Neither defense has shown an ability to slow down passing attacks and the receivers should find open spaces all day. With that being said, Cousins is easily going to put up QB1 numbers in this matchup and should be started in all lineups.

Jaylen Warren - RB, Pittsburgh Steelers @ Las Vegas Raiders

I'm going to call this my gut call of the week. The Steelers' backfield has been the talk of the fantasy community for some time now. The inefficiency of Najee Harris has allowed for the rumblings of getting Jaylen Warren more reps. Over the first two weeks, Warren has seen his snap percentage stay fairly consistent (40% in Week 1, 44% in Week 2).

But in Week 2, he saw a spike in his route participation as he was on the field for more third-down work. Surprisingly, through the first two games, Warren currently leads all running backs with targets (12) and is second with nine receptions. Even as the second back on the depth chart, his passing game involvement has allowed him to almost average double-digit fantasy points so far (9.7 FPPG).

Heading into Week 3, there is some hope that the increase in Warren's usage creates a split backfield with Harris. With the small increases we have seen from Week 1 to Week 2, expecting 14 touches in the game is not out of the realm of possibility.

If he does see the increase in work, the matchup will be the best one the Steelers have seen to date as they will be facing a Raiders defense that has allowed 28.1 FPPG to opposing running backs. Warren should be able to use his ability to evade tackles and will potentially find the end zone in this game. This makes him a viable play at the flex position for fantasy managers who could be dealing with injuries.

Michael Pittman Jr. - WR, Indianapolis Colts @ Baltimore Ravens

Pittman is quietly putting together a solid start to the 2023 season for a player who was largely overlooked in drafts. He has seen double-digit targets in each of the first two games, hauling in eight receptions in both, which places him at WR4. But even though he has been a target hog to begin the year, it has not exactly translated into similar production.

His 18.7 fantasy points per game have been good for WR11 so far, while his 153 receiving yards put him at WR16. One surprising fact for a receiver of his stature is that he has only seen two red zone targets to start the season. This is a stat that you would expect to see an increase in as the Colts' passing attack continues to gel.

In Week 3, the Colts take to the road to face a Baltimore Ravens offense that has one of the highest implied totals on the week (26.25). That means that the Colts will likely be in a negative game script for most of the contest and giving extra scoring opportunities to the passing attack.

Helping matters even more is the fact that the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most points to opposing receivers (37.1 FPPG) through the first two weeks. No matter if it is Anthony Richardson or Gardner Minshew under center for the Colts this week, Pittman will be the centerpiece of the offense and should contribute yet another strong performance. Fantasy managers will have no problem locking him into the lineup as he has a WR1 upside this week.

Jake Ferguson - TE, Dallas Cowboys @ Arizona Cardinals

Ferguson is a player that I was high on throughout the offseason as it was clear that he would be assuming the Dalton Schultz role in the Cowboys' passing game. So far, that has been fairly obvious as he is currently TE7 with 11 targets and a solid 32% targets per route run.

He is also TE1 in red zone targets (eight) but drops have been a big issue so far (two), limiting his fantasy points per game to 6.6 (TE18). Another thing that has been working against him so far has been the game script, in which the Cowboys have been so far out in front of the competition that the offense has yet to be truly challenged.

Ferguson could be facing game script concerns yet again in Week 3 as the Cowboys will be facing the Arizona Cardinals, a defense that is currently allowing 9.6 FPPG to opposing tight ends. This Cardinals team played the Giants tough in Week 2.

If they can hang with the Cowboys for a portion of the game, Ferguson should benefit and see several targets early on. Coming off a game in which he scored, I expect for him to have a good chance to match that again this week, making him a player to consider starting in fantasy lineups. Especially for fantasy managers who are currently struggling at the position with players like Kyle Pitts.

Week 3 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Jared Goff - QB, Detroit Lions vs. Atlanta Falcons

Goff rebounded in Week 2 after a sluggish start to the season with a 300-yard effort and three scores against the Seahawks at home. The performance increased Goff's fantasy points per game up to 19.0 on the season, which is good enough for QB11. For fantasy managers who bought into the expected increase in efficiency for the passing attack, he has paid off to begin the season. He currently ranks inside the top five at the position in both passing yards (576) and yards per attempt (8.2). All this for an offense that has been middle of the road in pass plays per game (35.0).

His home and road splits will be tested in Week 3 as he faces an Atlanta Falcons defense that has been somewhat of a surprise to begin the season. They have been fairly stout against all positions, but at QB they are only allowing 14.9 FPPG.

The biggest issue that Goff could be facing in this matchup could be a shortened game. The Falcons will prefer to run the ball and shorten the game. If they do, the Lions will be hard-pressed to meet the 66.5 plays per game they have averaged to begin the season. Fewer plays will result in fewer scoring opportunities for Goff and the offense, making him a player who could return less than QB1 production in this game.

Rachaad White - RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Philadelphia Eagles

White was a player with a lot of eyes on him in the fantasy community in Week 2 as everyone was expecting a solid performance in a plus matchup. He met those expectations with 22 touches and 103 total yards while also finding the end zone. So far, he has dominated the work in the Buccaneers' backfield, playing 76% of the snaps.

Even as he has dominated the usage, he has battled the inefficiencies that many in the fantasy community were worried about coming into the 2023 season. He is currently RB7 in carries (34) and RB9 in receptions (seven) but that has only resulted in 152 total yards on the year.

White has all the makings of a running back who will be extremely matchup-based in terms of what kind of production to expect. This week will be one of those in which you will need to temper those expectations. Even though he will have a home game ahead of him, he will be facing a strong Philadelphia Eagles defense that is one of the best in the league in points allowed to the position (12.3 FPPG).

With the Buccaneers currently a five-point home underdog, the likelihood that White will see additional work with the lead is minimal, something that has been in his favor in both games to start the year. Look for his value to be closer to what he provided in Week 1 (6.9 FP) than what he did a week ago. He'll more than likely be in all lineups for fantasy managers but do not be hopeful for a strong performance in Week 3.

DeAndre Hopkins - WR, Tennessee Titans @ Cleveland Browns

The beginning of Hopkins' tenure as a Tennessee Titan has been about what most were expecting to begin the 2023 season. The targets have been there as he is currently WR13 (18) through two games. But that has only translated to 11 receptions (WR19) for 105 yards (WR38) while he has yet to sniff the end zone. His target separation is at an all-time low (0.83). If that does not improve, it's hard to see a light at the end of the tunnel for Hopkins in the run-based Titans offense.

Heading into Week 3, the going will stay very tough for Hopkins as the Titans go on the road to face a Browns defense that is allowing just 16.2 FPPG to opposing receivers, which is 31st in the league.

With both offenses struggling heading into this matchup, there is a reason why this game has the second-lowest implied total for the week (39.5). Week 3 is shaping up to be another low-production game for Hopkins and fantasy managers should be planning accordingly. With the receiver position becoming fairly deep to start the season, there could be options to slide into starting lineups over Hopkins if fantasy managers have the flexibility.

David Njoku - TE, Cleveland Browns vs. Tennessee Titans

Njoku has been off to a very sluggish start to the 2023 season due in large part to the struggles of Deshaun Watson. After the first two games, he has managed just six receptions on seven targets. Njoku has yet to see any red zone targets on the year, capping his scoring potential, which has landed him at TE25 (5.6 FPPG).

With the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb, there is a chance that the offense begins to rely on their playmakers at receiver a bit more. But if Watson continues to struggle, the trickle-down effect will be felt by players like Njoku.

The struggles for Njoku may continue in Week 3 as he will be facing a Titans defense that allows just 7.9 FPPG to opposing tight ends. That number is due in large part to how bad the secondary is in defending outside receivers to start the season. Look for the Browns to attempt to knock the rust off of Watson in this game as he utilizes both Amari Cooper and Elijah Moore.

With the targets being primarily funneled to the outside, this will leave little to be had for Njoku. I'm expecting another low target performance in Week 3, making him a player that should be out of fantasy starting lineups.

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