Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 16 Lineups (2023)

December 23, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 16 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

As the fantasy football season reaches its pinnacle, Week 16 presents a critical juncture for managers vying for championship glory. The stakes are higher than ever, and every decision becomes a make-or-break moment. In this thrilling fantasy finale, managers must navigate through a myriad of player performances, matchups, and injury updates to determine the optimal "start" and "sit" choices for their lineups. As the tension mounts, fantasy enthusiasts find themselves grappling with strategic decisions that could ultimately shape the destiny of their teams.

Week 16 brings a unique set of challenges and opportunities as players and teams vie for playoff contention in the real world. With the fantasy football crown hanging in the balance, the spotlight intensifies on star players, sleeper picks, and potential breakout performances that could swing the tide in favor of fantasy managers. Whether it's relying on consistent veterans to deliver in the clutch or placing trust in emerging talents with favorable matchups, the choices made this week will echo through the annals of fantasy football history. In this final showdown, fantasy managers must stay vigilant, analyzing the latest news, statistics, and trends to make the astute start-or-sit decisions that will propel them to glory or leave them ruing missed opportunities.

As the fantasy gridiron transforms into a battlefield of statistical warfare, managers must draw upon their knowledge and instincts to assemble the most formidable lineups for Week 16. In this article, we'll delve into the key matchups, player updates, and strategic insights that can guide fantasy enthusiasts through the crucial decisions that await. The journey to fantasy supremacy is nearing its conclusion, and only those with the keenest foresight and strategic acumen will emerge victorious in the grand spectacle that is Week 16 of fantasy football.

Week 16 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Baker Mayfield - QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Jacksonville Jaguars

Baker Mayfield has had somewhat of a surprising resurgence in the 2023 season. When it was announced that he would be the starting quarterback for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, it led to many groans and jokes as to what the state of the offense would be. But Mayfield has responded well and turned in a solid QB2 season to this point (17.1 FPPG). He is utilizing the weapons around him to the best of his abilities as he ranks top-10 in pass attempts (466), air yards (4,084), and touchdowns (24).

But he has still battled with the inconsistencies that have plagued him throughout his career, which has led to a high number of turnover-worthy plays. This has shown up in his fantasy production on the season. Even though he has at least one passing score in all but one game, two-thirds of his starts have resulted in QB2 weekly finishes. He has been very hard to pin down for fantasy managers in terms of spot starts in lineups.

Going into the fantasy semifinals in Week 16, a spot start could be warranted for fantasy managers needing a boost to their lineups at the quarterback position. Mayfield will be at home and facing a struggling Jacksonville Jaguars defense. A defense that has been one of the worst over the last four games in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (24.23 FPPG). Coming off his best game of the season in which he threw four touchdowns, Mayfield will look to keep the momentum going against a defense that has allowed the third-most scores to the position.

Things are looking up in this matchup. In a game that is carrying an implied total of 41, there is a chance that this could turn into a shootout, increasing the opportunities for Mayfield to score. This should put him on the radar for fantasy managers in Week 16. I expect to see him return QB1 production in this game and may be a reason that fantasy managers move on to the championship game.

Breece Hall - RB, New York Jets vs. Washington Commanders

Another player who has been maddening inconsistent for fantasy managers in 2023 is Breece Hall. Aside from the three-game stretch from Week 5 to Week 8 in which he performed at an RB1 level, Hall has had a hard time proving his worthiness to maintain his spot in starting lineups. Where he has disappointed the most has been as a rusher, ranking as the RB30 in carries (153) and RB29 in yards (637). He has made up for it, to a degree, with his work as a receiver, ranking as the RB2 in targets (68), RB3 in receptions (53), and RB4 in yards (441).

But the lack of ability to find the end zone (RB24 - five touchdowns) has resulted in his subpar ranking of RB20 (13.6 FPPG) on the season. The injury to Aaron Rodgers made this a "what could have been" year for the Jets offense, but no one could see the Hall struggling to even maintain low-end RB2 value. With the Jets' offensive line and quarterback issues only eroding and not getting better, chalk this up to a lost year for Breece Hall.

Although he has been a bit of a lost cause most weeks for fantasy managers, Week 16 is a prime opportunity to get Hall into the starting lineups for semifinal matchups. The Jets will be at home and facing the lowly Washington Commanders defense. A defense that has been next to last in points allowed to the position over the last four weeks (32.40 FPPG). Since the trade deadline, this defense has become one to target for fantasy managers looking for upside in their matchups.

That should be no different this week for those looking for a reason to get Hall into their lineups. Facing a defense that is tied for the most touchdowns surrendered over the last month is all fantasy managers could ask for in hoping Hall can come through in this playoff matchup. He should be started and viewed as a solid RB2 option in Week 16.

Wan'Dale Robinson - WR, New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles

We can call this one my "gut call of the week" as Wan'Dale Robinson doesn't exactly scream value to fantasy managers that warrants a need to be in starting lineups. Blame it on the lack of an offense from the Giants, but on the season, Robinson simply doesn't register anywhere near being ranked as even a WR5 in most statistical categories. For what it is worth, he has been the top option at receiver for the Giants over the last three games with 16 targets and 14 receptions.

But his one touchdown on the season is one of the many reasons that he ranks as just the WR64 on the year (7.9 FPPG). Outside of Saquon Barkley, there has simply been no one on this offense that has been worthy of rostering, let alone be considered for a starting spot in lineups for a must-win game.

Counting on a player like Robinson in a fantasy playoff matchup is a bit of a risk, but the risk may be worth it in Week 16. He will be on the road and facing the very generous Philadelphia Eagles. A defense that has been the worst in the league this year in points allowed to opposing receivers (46.49 FPPG). With the Eagles being very heavy home favorites (-13.5), the implication is that the Giants will be playing from behind for nearly all of this game.

This game script only favors the opportunities for Robinson. With an expected .29 fantasy points per route run due to the matchup, Robinson has enough upside to warrant consideration as a potential Flex play for fantasy managers looking for a boost.

Tanner Hudson - TE, Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers

A player that has seemingly come out of nowhere, Tanner Hudson has quietly developed into a player with solid TE2 production. At a position that may be the most volatile, many fantasy managers are constantly looking for the next player that can step up. Since Week 10, Hudson is TE9 with 25 receptions and has accounted for 12.1% of the Bengals' yards. He has been heavily involved in the offense and it is paying dividends.

Jake Browning is utilizing Hudson as a security blanket and that could now increase with Ja'Marr Chase being out for the team. Coming off a five-reception game, Hudson could be on the verge of being a late-season addition for teams in need of a consistent option at tight end on their quest for a fantasy championship.

Heading into Week 16, the momentum for Hudson looks to continue as the Bengals will be on the road and facing the rival Pittsburgh Steelers. A defense that has been one of the worst in the league over the last four weeks in allowing points to opposing tight ends (17.93 FPPG). Going against a defense that has surrendered the most touchdowns over that span only gives more reason towards this being a solid game for Hudson.

Although this game carries a low implied total (38), the Bengals will look to attack the weakness of the Steelers' defense over the middle. With the corners on the outside playing well in recent weeks, look for Browning to target Hudson quite a bit in the matchup. I expect to see Hudson bring in six receptions and potentially find the end zone in Week 16, making him worthy of a start with his TE1 potential.

Week 16 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Kyler Murray - QB, Arizona Cardinals @ Chicago Bears

Since his return in Week 10, Kyler Murray found himself right back where we are accustomed to seeing him and that is putting up QB1 numbers in fantasy. He was showing the dual-threat ability that fantasy managers covet and even scored a rushing touchdown in his first three games back. But in his last two games, he has produced his two lowest-scoring weeks as the Cardinals offense has sputtered. With James Conner and the rushing attack not offering much support, all the weight has been placed squarely on Murray's shoulders.

And outside of Trey McBride, the Cardinals receivers have not been up to the task of stepping up and assisting Murray. If he is to get back to playing at the level of a QB1 for the rest of the season, he will need his supporting cast to step things up to increase his scoring potential. If not, Murray must utilize his skill as a runner more to provide fantasy managers with a solid floor.

Finding that floor for QB1 scoring could be a tall task for fantasy managers to ask for in Week 16, unfortunately. Murray and the Cardinals will be on the road in Chicago to face a Bears defense that has been playing rather well as of late. In fact, they have been one of the stingiest defenses in the league over the last four games in points allowed to opposing quarterbacks (8.67 FPPG).

They have forced the most interceptions (nine) over that span, something that Murray has struggled with since his return. With the way the Cardinals have looked over the last two games on offense, putting them in cold conditions in Chicago adds up to what could be an ugly game for Murray from a fantasy standpoint. If Murray has been a streamable option for fantasy managers to get to this point in the playoffs, it would be a smart decision to look elsewhere in Week 16.

Austin Ekeler - RB, Los Angeles Chargers vs. Buffalo Bills

My have the mighty have fallen when it comes to Austin Ekeler and his production in fantasy. Sure, you could blame the injury to Justin Herbert and switch to Easton Stick as a cause for some of the production dip, but there have been bouts of inconsistent play from Ekeler all season long. Aside from his hot streak from Week 8 to Week 10, he has just two other RB1 finishes for the season. Although he is RB10 in snap share (65.8%), it has only translated into 141 carries (RB33), 60 targets (RB7), and 40 receptions (RB13).

He's also only found the end zone six times on the season, which is why he is ranked as just the RB15 in fantasy points per game (14.4). Even though his 15.4% target share is good for RB5, it's noticeable that there has been a regression in his usage in this department in 2023. If Easton Stick continues to struggle, this Chargers offense as a whole will find problems moving the ball. This will limit the scoring opportunities for Ekeler and his fantasy managers banking on something of a bounce-back to end the season.

Looking for the bounce-back may have to wait a week as Ekeler and the Chargers will be facing the red-hot Buffalo Bills. A defense that has been extremely tough against the position over the last four games, allowing just 16.37 FPPG. In addition to allowing the fewest receptions over that span (12), this defense has given up just one touchdown as well. Add in the offensive struggles the Chargers have had with Stick at quarterback and you have all the makings for another dud from Ekeler in an all-important week for fantasy managers.

Unless your roster is loaded with talent, Ekeler will likely have to hold his spot in the starting lineup. But for fantasy managers forced to keep him in, tempering your expectations will be warranted as I could see a single-digit fantasy performance coming in Week 16.

Terry McLaurin - WR, Washington Commanders @ New York Jets

It has been a confusing statistical year for Terry McLaurin as Sam Howell has been among the league leaders in nearly all passing categories. But the receivers, including McLaurin, do not have any fantasy success to show for it. Although he is the WR2 in routes run (547), it has translated into just 111 targets (WR17), 66 receptions (WR20, and 835 yards (WR23). Adding in his four touchdowns (WR30), you have all the ingredients for why he ranks as just the WR35 on the year (12.4 FPPG).

He is also well below his expected fantasy output (16.9 FPPG), which shows just how inefficient he has been during the year. For McLaurin to improve at all, he must do a better job at finding separation to generate targets. His 1.39 yards of target separation ranks as one of the worst at the position (WR72) and limits his ability to find open space. Coming off of his best game of the season, there is hope that there is some silver lining to end the season here after his 12 targets, six receptions, and a score game.

Unfortunately, that silver lining is about to meet a black cloud in Week 16 as the Commanders go on the road to face the New York Jets. A defense that has been the toughest all season against opposing wide receivers (22.59 FPPG). For the year, this secondary has allowed just four touchdowns to the position. It's almost all but guaranteed when you go up against this defense that a single-digit performance is on the way.

Add in the fact that this game carries the second-lowest implied total on the slate (37) and the scoring opportunities will be few and far between for McLaurin and the Commanders. He's been used primarily as a WR3 in fantasy for much of 2023, but in Week 16, McLaurin should be firmly entrenched on fantasy benches for better options.

Jake Ferguson - TE, Dallas Cowboys @ Miami Dolphins

The tight end that I was telling everyone about who would listen before the year, Jake Ferguson has been a steady option as a TE1 for fantasy managers who took the shot on him late in drafts. On the year, he is TE8 in routes run (408), which has resulted in 82 receptions (TE7), 57 receptions (TE9), and 614 yards (TE8). He paces the position with 24 red zone targets and has converted five of those into touchdowns (TE6). All of this adds up to his ranking of TE10 on the season in fantasy points per game (10.6).

His emergence as a late round find in fantasy drafts has allowed fantasy managers the luxury of not having to go to the waiver wire every week as they stream at the tight end position. Going down the stretch, Ferguson should continue to be a focal point for the Cowboys' passing attack as they will be in some closely contested matchups.

Going into Week 16 and looking at the matchup, you would assume that Ferguson should be a no-doubt start in what could be a high-scoring game. The Cowboys will be on the road to face the Miami Dolphins. But the key is that this Dolphins defense has been extremely tough over the last four games in points allowed to the position (8.33 FPPG). They are one of several defenses to have not allowed a touchdown over that span and have surrendered just 133 yards receiving to tight ends.

Sure, this game carries the highest implied total on the slate for the week (50), but this is far from a matchup to feel good about for Ferguson. I am expecting to see Dak Prescott and the Cowboys' offense struggle yet again against a tough opponent on the road, which will limit Ferguson's opportunities to score. Even though he has been a savior for many fantasy managers in 2023, Ferguson could disappoint you as you look to advance to your fantasy championships.

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