Booms and Busts - Fantasy Football Starts and Sits for Week 15 Lineups (2023)

December 17, 2023

Brandon's fantasy football start'em and sit'em for Week 15 season long lineups in 2023. Sneaky players to start that may boom, and typical starters that will disappoint or bust.

As the regular NFL season hurtles towards its climax, fantasy football managers find themselves on the cusp of postseason play. Week 15 marks the inception of the fantasy football playoffs, a thrilling and nerve-racking phase where every lineup decision can be the make-or-break factor for contending teams. In this critical juncture, savvy managers must navigate the landscape of player performances, injuries, and matchups to assemble a lineup that can weather the storm and propel them to championship glory. The stakes are higher than ever, and the choices made in the coming week could be the key to unlocking fantasy success or facing the bitter disappointment of an early exit.

This Week 15, the strategic chess match intensifies as fantasy managers must grapple with key start-sit decisions. The unpredictability of injuries and breakout performances adds an extra layer of complexity to an already intricate puzzle. In this start-sit guide, we'll delve into the matchups, player form, and potential sleepers to help you make informed decisions that could tilt the scales in your favor. Whether you're aiming to solidify your playoff position or staging a comeback from the brink, the choices you make this week could define the trajectory of your fantasy football journey.

Week 15 serves as the battleground for fantasy supremacy, and the decisions you make in your start-sit dilemmas will echo through the playoffs. With a keen eye on player trends and matchups, this guide aims to equip fantasy managers with the insights needed to navigate the challenges and emerge victorious in the crucial Week 15 matchups. As the fantasy football drama unfolds, the quest for championship glory intensifies, and every start-sit decision carries the weight of potential fantasy greatness.

Week 15 Woos - Fantasy Football Booms

Matthew Stafford - QB, Los Angeles Rams vs. Washington Commanders

After a rough stretch during the middle of the season that included missing a game, Matthew Stafford has rebounded nicely over the last three games. Over that span, he has 10 touchdown passes en route to QB1 weekly finishes in each game. For the season, Stafford has ranked as a QB2 in most of the key categories, but with the surge over the last three weeks, he has ascended to QB12 on the season with 19 touchdowns. All of that adds up to his middling rank as QB17 on the year in fantasy points per game (16.7).

Playing with a solid group of pass catchers has also allowed him to increase his yards per attempt (7.3) back to a respectable level where he ranks inside the top 10. Clearly, with the Rams' weapons on offense getting back to being healthy, it has helped Stafford enter the discussion in fantasy circles as a quarterback worthy of a starting spot during the playoffs.

Heading into the first round of the playoffs in Week 15, Stafford could not be presented with a better matchup to take advantage of. He will be at home and facing the Washington Commanders. A defense that has been gashed over the last four weeks and is allowing 24.70 FPPG to opposing quarterbacks. With all the recent changes to the defense for the Commanders, quarterbacks have been finding it easy to move the ball up and down the field.

Also, with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua playing at a very high level in recent weeks, Stafford should be viewed as a no-brainer start for fantasy managers in this matchup. Especially with injuries affecting the position as a whole, Stafford could return top-five production in Week 15.

Jerome Ford - RB, Cleveland Browns vs. Chicago Bears

After the season-ending injury to Nick Chubb, Jerome Ford was thrust into the fantasy spotlight as he took over the starting running back job for the run-heavy Cleveland Browns. For the most part, he has been a serviceable RB2 on the season, due in large part to what he brings to the table as a pass catcher. Over his last four games, Ford has 21 targets resulting in 14 receptions while also adding in two scores over that time frame as well.

From a rushing perspective, he has not been terrible, as he ranks inside the top 20 in both carries (166) and yards (698). Where he has been lacking is his ability to evade tackles (RB27 - 32) and usage in the red zone (RB50 with 11 red zone touches). Even with the lack of scoring opportunities, he has been able to produce enough to be ranked as the RB25 on the season (12.6 FPPG).

As we enter into Week 15, Ford will be looking to keep the positive momentum going with a home matchup against the Chicago Bears. A defense that has been among the league's worst over the last four games in points allowed to the position (26.23 FPPG). Although they have not allowed a ton in terms of yardage, opposing backs have been able to find the end zone.

If Ford can find open space for a breakaway run or two, chances are good that he will find the end zone in this game. And with fantasy managers looking for touchdown upside in playoff matchups, Ford can provide just that. I expect Ford to provide managers with a solid RB2 week in scoring, making him an obvious choice to be in starting lineups.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba - WR, Seattle Seahawks vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Coming out of the gates, Jaxon Smith-Njigba saw inconsistent playing time and usage to begin the 2023 season. Over the first four games, he never was on the field for more than 56% of the snaps. With those limitations, his best fantasy finish was in Week 2 and he was only the WR59. As the weeks went by and production never picked up, Smih-Njigba saw himself relegated deep on fantasy benches if not just simply dropped.

But in recent weeks, the team has stated its intent to involve him more in the offensive game plan. That has resulted in 18 targets over the last two games with 11 receptions. He has not been able to find the end zone since Week 8, and only has two on the year as much of the production in the red zone has gone to D.K. Metcalf. With all the inconsistent production throughout the season, Smith-Njigba has only managed to accumulate 8.5 FPPG (WR57).

Going into Week 15, Smith-Njigba will be looking to make his mark in the fantasy playoffs as he will be at home and facing the Philadelphia Eagles. A secondary that has been the worst in the league in points allowed to opposing wide receivers (47.44 FPPG). In fact, this defense leads by a decent gap in all the major categories. They are the only secondary that has surrendered 300 targets and 200 receptions, while also giving up a league-high 23 touchdowns.

In a game that is expected to become a shootout (game total of 47.5), there is a good chance that Smith-Njigba could see double-digit targets in this game. With that expectation, I could see him producing WR3 numbers for fantasy managers in need of help at the position in the first week of the playoffs. Plug him in as a WR3/Flex, sit back, and enjoy the production that he is sure to return in Week 15.

Tucker Kraft - TE, Green Bay Packers vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Since the injury to Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft has slowly been integrated into the Green Bay Packers passing attack. He had just five receptions over his first three games after taking over, but over the last two weeks, he has started to find his footing. He has seen 10 targets over that span (two in the red zone) with seven receptions for 111 yards. In fact, last week his production was seemingly good enough for some fantasy managers to use in their starting lineups in streaming situations.

In an offense that typically likes to utilize the tight end position, Kraft could see steady usage over the next few games and be considered as a weekly starting tight end in the fantasy playoffs. But many fantasy managers will likely utilize Kraft as a matchup play only instead of solely relying on him as their only tight end.

From a matchup perspective, Week 15 is lining up to be a good one for Kraft as he will be at home against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. A defense that has been in the bottom five in the league over the last four games in points allowed to opposing tight ends (14.35 FPPG). With Kraft third on the team since Week 12 in route run percentage (72.8%), he should be on the field for plenty of opportunities in a game that is carrying an implied total of 42.5.

Add in the fact that the Packers' running game is dealing with plenty of injuries coming into the game and you have the ingredients for a solid outing from a fantasy production standpoint. With many fantasy managers playing the streaming game at this stage of the season, Kraft should be in the discussion as a player with TE1 upside in Week 15.

Week 15 Boos - Fantasy Football Busts

Patrick Mahomes - QB, Kansas City Chiefs @ New England Patriots

Unfortunately, we have reached the point in an underwhelming season where you could make the case to bench Patrick Mahomes in the right situation due to his struggles over the past two games. He has had back-to-back single-touchdown games and has not had a 300-yard game since Week 7 (424). On the season, he is the QB2 in pass attempts (487) but that has resulted in just 3,399 passing yards (QB8).

His 23 touchdowns (QB5) have helped boost his scoring but not to his standards as he ranks as the QB9 on the season with 19.0 FPPG. The inconsistent play he gets from his group of wide receivers has affected the big-play ability of this offense. And with Travis Kelce playing with an injury for much of the season and not up to his usual elite level, Mahomes is just not the same quarterback that we are used to seeing at the top of the QB rankings.

Things are not going to let up for him in Week 15 either as the Chiefs will be going on the road to play the New England Patriots. A defense that has been one of the best in the league in terms of points allowed to the position (14.02 FPPG). On the season, this defense is tied for second with just 14 passing touchdowns allowed. Traditionally, the Patriots have done a good job of limiting Mahomes from having those big performances.

And with those types of games being few and far between for Mahomes in 2023, this game could be very frustrating for fantasy managers looking for him to help carry the team to a playoff victory. With players like Jordan Love and Sam Howell playing at a higher level, there are scenarios where benching Mahomes in a win-or-go-home game is in play. But many fantasy managers will go with blind faith and keep him in the lineup, even though he could likely not return QB1 production in Week 15.

Joe Mixon - RB, Cincinnati Bengals vs. Minnesota Vikings

For most of the 2023 season, Joe Mixon has once again been one of the more inefficient running backs in fantasy football. He ranks inside the top five in both carries (201) and red zone touches (50), but that has translated to just 768 rushing yards (RB14) and eight total touchdowns (RB9). He has been somewhat respectable as a pass catcher, ranking inside the top 10 in both receptions (42) and yards (327).

Although the receiving numbers have been decent, it's not been good enough to make him a top-10 running back in fantasy as he ranks as the RB11 on the year with 15.3 FPPG. Things have picked up over the last two games though as he has seen increased usage (40 carries) that has resulted in back-to-back games with over 100 total yards while also adding in three scores.

Keeping that positive momentum could likely be a problem for Mixon in Week 15 as he will be facing a tough matchup against the Minnesota Vikings. A defense that has been playing very well as of late, allowing just 19.17 FPPG to opposing running backs. In fact, this defense is one of six teams that has not allowed a rushing touchdown over the last four games. Even though his usage has increased with Jake Browning taking over as the Bengals' starting quarterback, the team has also worked in rookie Chase Brown a bit more in the last two games.

The key to Mixon's production all year has been bell-cow usage and if Brown continues to take work away in a tough matchup, Mixon could disappoint fantasy managers hoping for RB1 production in Week 15. I expect to see him perform at more of an RB2/RB3 level this week, which obviously keeps him in lineups. But just not producing the numbers we have seen over the last two games.

Jaylen Waddle - WR, Miami Dolphins vs. New York Jets

As Tyreek Hill has torched opposing defenses during the 2023 season, Jaylen Waddle has found himself firmly utilized as a WR2, not only on his own team but also from a fantasy production standpoint. Playing at a WR1 level during the 2022 season, his numbers have dipped dramatically this year. His highest ranking at the position on the season is in receptions, where his 63 is good enough for only WR18.

He is outside the top 20 in both targets (91) and yards (822), with only three touchdowns on the season (WR39). All of this adds up to a player who ranks very disappointingly as the WR22 on the season in FPPG (13.7).

Expecting some kind of rebound game from Waddle in Week 15 could be a little much to ask for as he will be matched up against the New York Jets. A secondary that has been one of the best in the league in points allowed to opposing wide receivers over the last four games (20.45 FPPG). With Tyreek Hill dealing with an ankle injury, you could make the case that Waddle may see increased usage in this matchup.

But if Hill were to miss the game, that would put Waddle in coverage against Sauce Gardner, which will severely limit his upside. His potential in Week 15 solely rests on the injury designation and playing time of Tyreek Hill. Fantasy managers will want Hill to play and draw coverage away, opening up the field for Waddle. But realistically, I expect to see Waddle produce at more of a WR3 level given the matchup.

Dalton Kincaid - TE, Buffalo Bills vs. Dallas Cowboys

During the middle of the 2023 season, once the Buffalo Bills lost Dawson Knox to injury, Dalton Kincaid was the talk of the fantasy community. And boy did he shine during this time, with five straight games of double-digit scoring for fantasy managers, also scoring his only two touchdowns of the season during the span. But over the last two games, the receptions have been there (five in each of the last two), but the yardage has fallen tremendously (59 total yards).

On the season, he ranks as the TE10 in targets (72) and TE5 in receptions (61), but only TE13 in yards (495). He paces the position in target accuracy (8.4) and has played the second-most slot snaps (284), but with the production, it has only translated to a ranking of TE12 in FFPG on the year (10.0). Now with Dawson Knox back and healthy, it may lead to murky waters in terms of target distribution for the Bills' passing attack.

Heading into Week 15, things will not lighten up for Kincaid as he will be matched up against the Dallas Cowboys. A defense that has been one of the toughest in points allowed to the position over the last four games (8.03 FPPG). This defense does a great job of limiting open spaces over the middle, where tight ends are typically working. If the Bills are smart, they will utilize Kincaid primarily out of the slot in this game and have him work the edges of the field.

But with how well the Cowboys defense is playing as of late, coupled with the return of Dawson Knox, the upside that was once there for Kincaid has disappeared. He is still worth considering as a starting tight end in fantasy, but managers will need to temper expectations in Week 15.

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