Bold Predictions for Week 4

October 2, 2021

Kev Mahserejian gives his bold predictions for Week 3 of the NFL season to give fantasy football managers something to consider when setting lineups.

Bold predictions are always meant to be taken with a grain of salt but ideally, they are not a bunch of takes thrown like excrement at a wall with the hope of sticking.

These predictions come with backing to make them somewhat substantiated with the obvious caveat that it's playing into a range of outcomes that seems likely but is not guaranteed.

Most of all, it's just fun and should not change your process too much on a week-to-week basis. If you enjoy them or have questions, feel free to follow me on Twitter (@RotoSurgeon) for more!

Kyle Pitts Wakes Up

Defense is innately volatile year-to-year but Washington's is dramatically worse than 2020 despite not losing pieces and even adding premier CB Will Jackson III and drafting LB Jamin Davis in Round 1. Through 3 games, they are 29th in DVOA whereas they finished 3rd last season. Adjusted DVOA suggests they are closer to the middle which seems most accurate. Nevertheless, this isn't as daunting a matchup as it seems for Pitts and the Falcons' offense.

Kyle Pitts' targets have dipped in each of the past two games but his snaps have gone up. In a dome game against a Washington offense that may be competent with Curtis Samuel back, Pitts should be relied on to carry the load and attack their real weakness: Linebacker, and Safety. Pitts is a pure mismatch for the 2nd level of Washington's defense.

Guess on stat-line would be 6 catches - 90 yards - 1 TD.

Jets and Lions get their first win

Jets: Tennessee is playing without their starting WRs A.J. Brown and Julio Jones while possessing very little depth and a TE room that lacks much receiving talent. Anthony Firkser is on track to play after missing the past two games to injury but it's unclear how impactful he may be. The game plan for Tennessee will likely be very vanilla in that they pound the rock with Derrick Henry every other play and take deep shots when possible to pray for chunk yardage. The Jets' defense may not be good but they also aren't bad and have some legitimate talent on the defensive line.

While New York's offense may be hard to trust given their egregious performances thus far, the Titans' defense is the weakest they'll have faced (Carolina, Denver, New England is no cakewalk). Zach Wilson may not be good but he is capable of making plays on occasion and with former Titans' WR Corey Davis on his side, there may be a little extra juice for this matchup. Jamison Crowder is set to return which would be a massive upgrade over current slot receiver Braxton Berrios.

Lions: Two bad teams enter the gauntlet, one exits with a win. Justin Fields can't be any worse than last week and rumors have it that Matt Nagy has given up play-calling to OC Bill Lazor who was the play-caller during their stretch run towards the end of last season. Nevertheless, Fields should remain plenty green due to his lack of reps with the first-team offense along with a game plan that could be much more run-heavy to keep the ball out of his hands.

While Detroit's defense is susceptible to anything, if the opposing offense isn't much better, they can get stops. The Lions' offense though is quite talented on the offensive line and with T.J. Hockenson + D'Andre Swift, two premier players at their position.

Jalen Hurts and Miles Sanders rush for 100 yards each vs Kansas City

After last week's abominable performance in Dallas, Philly adjusts against one of the league's worst defenses. Hullabaloo was rightfully made about Miles Sanders only carrying the ball twice Monday as the Eagles forced the issue far too much through the air against Dallas. One of Sanders' runs even went for 24 yards and they just refused to give it to him.

The advantage gained with Jalen Hurts is leverage in the ground game given his strong arm and athleticism. He's not the most gifted QB but what he does possess is near-elite and if game-planned correctly can keep Kansas City on their toes. Also, the best way to beat the Chiefs is by keeping the ball out of Patrick Mahomes' hands. Philly probably loses this game but they could score their fair share.

Leading scorer in Tom Brady's return home is Leonard Fournette

With Giovani Bernard (knee) out and Rob Gronkowski (ribs) doubtful, the Buccaneers are left with just 3 elite WR talents and their running backs as primary targets. Ronald Jones has done little to inspire hope this year in Tampa while Fournette is at least trusted to take on passing-downs as proper dump-off.

Fournette's been lackluster through the start of this season but facing a New England defense that is near the bottom of the NFL in rush defense (while tops in passing), you can assume we see plenty of the former fourth-overall pick in a game that may not be close.

Bryan Edwards breaks out for 100 yards + a TD on MNF

Bryan Edwards' saw his target share jump up to double-digits last week which still isn't enough but an indication that Derek Carr is at least looking his way. He has been far too productive through the start of this season to leave with limited targets per game and could be in for his breakout performance on MNF vs the rival Chargers.

Unfortunately, a large chunk of Edwards' targets have come in the fourth quarter and overtime thus far (2/3 games included OT). This trend is not ideal but maybe by design to catch a team off-guard and then unleash him? What better than a primetime matchup against a division opponent? Yes, this is largely a leap of faith but the Chargers' defense as a whole is not great and the Raiders will likely be forced to throw plenty thanks to LA's offense.

Not saying start Edwards but if you need a desperation FLEX the man does have two double-digit PPR performances this season.

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