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Did you set your DFS lineup for the first Bluegreen Vacations Duel yet? If not, go check out my picks for that one. Once you've done that, mosey on back over here to check out my thoughts on the second of the two qualifying races that'll set the grid for Sunday's Daytona 500.
Unlike most races—where you just qualify and then you race—the 500 has a unique structure, with the field split in half. The 36 charter cars are all locked in, but only Bowman and Kyle Larson have their starting spots locked in. Of the non-chartered cars, Jimmie Johnson and Travis Pastrana are locked in, while the other drivers look to race their way in.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 2/16/23 at 8:30 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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Denny Hamlin
Starts 13th - DK: $10,000, FD: $12,500
Some good place differential here for Denny Hamlin, who rolls off the grid 13th out of 21 drivers.
Hamlin hasn't run well in the Duels lately, finishing outside the top 10 in his last three. But before that, he had a string of four top 10s in a row, including a Duel victory in 2017.
Also of note here: Hamlin's pretty good at Daytona. This track tends to have a lot of chaotic stuff happen, making it tough to get good finishes, but Hamlin has a top five in 32.4% of his starts here, not counting the Duels. He crashed out of both races last year, but not before he led 13 laps in the night race. He's also a three-time Daytona 500 winner.
Chase Elliott
Starts 7th - DK: $9,800, FD: $12,000
Like I mentioned in the first Duel article, I expect the Hendrick cars that aren't locked into the front row to try to get up to the front of these Duels. Here's what I said about William Byron:
With Hendrick cars starting on the front row for the 500 itself, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hendrick cars in this race—Byron, plus polesitter Alex Bowman—work together to try to get Byron a Duel victory. Teamwork matters at superspeedways, and a Byron win on Thursday night would put him right behind Bowman on Sunday, allowing the two to draft together early and hopefully keep them away from any potential early carnage.
So, sub out Byron for Elliott and "polesitter Alex Bowman" for "second place starter Kyle Larson" and, well...there you have my argument for Elliott in this one. Elliott has two career Duel victories and just one Duel finish outside the top 10 ever.
Brad Keselowski
Starts 9th - DK: $8,900, FD: $9,500
Brad Keselowski was very slow two weeks ago at the Clash, as he failed to even advance to the feature. But an exhibition race on a fake track inside of a football field is a whole lot different than Daytona, so I'm not holding that against Brad K.
What I like this week about Keselowski is...well, that he won his Duel last year after starting ninth, and this year he starts his Duel in ninth. He's done this before, is what I'm saying.
He followed that up with a ninth in the 500 itself last year, leading 67 laps of the race. The RFK cars might struggle at some tracks this year, but I think they'll be just fine at superspeedways.
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Austin Cindric
Starts 4th - DK: $8,600, FD: $8,200
I just think it's always good to have a Penske Ford in your lineup at Daytona. Here's what I wrote in my piece on the first Duel:
Last year, the Fords were dominant in the Duels. In the first Duel, the top four finishers were Fords, including two out of the Penske camp in Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney. In the second Duel, the top three were Fords. The only Penske car to not finish well was Logano.
So, yeah. Cindric ran well in his Duel race last year, and then he followed that up by winning the Daytona 500. It was the highlight of Cindric's rookie season.
Will magic strike twice? Probably not when the 500 is so unpredictable, but the Duels are usually a little more predictable than the 500 is, so Cindric staying near the front all night wouldn't be a surprise.
Austin Hill
Starts 16th - DK: $6,600, FD: $5,000
Hill has to race his way into this race, and the easiest way for him to do that would be to finish ahead of Conor Daly. For that reason, I expect Hill to be someone who tries to get to the front in this race.
I'm really fascinated by Hill this year. He's in the Beard Motorsports 62 car, which has run 21 races in the Cup Series, with four top 10 finishes at Daytona—three from Brendan Gaughan and another last year from Noah Gragson.
Add in that Hill's a pretty good superspeedway driver in Xfinity. He won twice last year in that series: the season-opening Daytona race and Atlanta, which races like a superspeedway.
The downside here: Hill has just one Cup Series start under his belt, but he ran well in that one, qualifying 31st and finishing 18th at Michigan in an RCR car.
Noah Gragson
Starts 14th - DK: $6,100, FD: $6,000
Gragson, who ran Daytona for Beard Motorsports last year and also made some Cup starts for Kaulig, moves to Cup full-time this year, running the 42 for Petty GMS...sorry, I mean for Legacy Motor Club. (Aside: it sucks that the Petty name isn't on a car anymore.)
Last year, Gragson won eight Xfinity races, and he's won 13 total in that series. That includes a Daytona win in 2020 and a Talladega win last season, if you're looking for some superspeedway bonafides in his past.
(There's also the top five at Daytona in Cup last year that I mentioned in the Austin Hill section.)
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