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It's Daytona week, y'all! The action at the 2.5-mile superspeedway got going on Wednesday night, when Alex Bowman won the pole for the Daytona 500. Now, it's time to set the rest of the lineup with the Bluegreen Vacations Duels, a pair of races that determine the starting lineup for the 500.
Unlike most races—where you just qualify and then you race—the 500 has a unique structure, with the field split in half. The 36 charter cars are all locked in, but only Bowman and Kyle Larson have their starting spots locked in. Of the non-chartered cars, Jimmie Johnson and Travis Pastrana are locked in, while the other drivers look to race their way in.
Below are my NASCAR DFS lineup picks for DraftKings and FanDuel this week. This slate locks on 2/16/23 at 7:16 p.m. ET. If you have any questions or want to talk about NASCAR, you can find me on Twitter at @juscarts.
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DFS Lineup Picks - DraftKings, FanDuel
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Ross Chastain
Starts 8th - DK: $10,000, FD: $9,200
In last year's Duel, Chastain started fourth and faded to finish 10th. He also crashed out of both full-length Daytona races last season. With that said, it might seem odd to recommend Chastain in this one, but I think he's got some good things working in his favor.
First, he did have top fives at both Talladega races last season, including a victory in the spring race. And at Atlanta—which has become a drafting track now—he had a pair of second-place runs. So despite the overall issues at Daytona last year, his track record at other similar tracks was really, really good.
Another thing: starting eighth offers a decent little bit of place differential upside. Not a ton of it, but enough for it to factor into things.
Joey Logano
Starts 3rd - DK: $9,500, FD: $11,500
Last year, the Fords were dominant in the Duels. In the first Duel, the top four finishers were Fords, including two out of the Penske camp in Austin Cindric and Ryan Blaney. In the second Duel, the top three were Fords. The only Penske car to not finish well was Logano.
But Logano did lead 33 laps in Duel 2. What ruined his day was a crash on the final lap of the race. Logano was leading when the white flag came out, but after tangling up with some other Ford drivers, he finished ninth.
Then in the 500 itself, Cindric drove to victory lane, leading 21 laps, while Penske teammate Ryan Blaney finished fourth, leading 36 laps. Logano didn't do as well in the 500, as he finished a lap down in 21st.
Still, we know Penske is going to be competitive here. I think playing either him or Ryan Blaney is a good call.
William Byron
Starts 2nd - DK: $8,900, FD: $9,800
With Hendrick cars starting on the front row for the 500 itself, I wouldn't be surprised to see the Hendrick cars in this race—Byron, plus polesitter Alex Bowman—work together to try to get Byron a Duel victory. Teamwork matters at superspeedways, and a Byron win on Thursday night would put him right behind Bowman on Sunday, allowing the two to draft together early and hopefully keep them away from any potential early carnage.
Because that's what DFS at Daytona is really about: trying to navigate around the carnage. I don't think that ends up being a huge issue in the Duels, but it will be on Sunday, which is why I think the Hendrick cars will already be looking ahead at that.
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Austin Dillon
Starts 17th - DK: $8,700, FD: $7,500
Place differential will be huge on Sunday. It'll be less huge on Thursday, but I still want to highlight some place differential plays, even if it won't be as big a part of the formula.
Let's start with Austin Dillon, who's likely to be a little chalky. Dillon knows his way around Daytona—of Dillon's four Cup Series wins, two have come at Daytona, including last year in the night race here.
Dillon was 18th in his Duel last year, but he won his 2021 Duel, and finished in the top 10 in the Duel from 2017 to 2021. He's a good bet to move through this field and finish well.
A.J. Allmendinger
Starts 16th - DK: $7,400, FD: $5,800
He's back! The veteran driver last ran a full Cup Series season in 2018 but will be competing full-time for Kaulig this year, a year after he ran half the schedule for the team.
This'll be Allmendinger's first 500 since 2018, but he's been running well at superspeedways in the Xfinity Series. He's finished in the top five in four consecutive Daytona Xfinity starts. Will that prowess translate to Cup? Maybe.
Allmendinger spent a lot of years in Cup struggling at Daytona, but he found something near the end of his time in the series, with top 10 runs in his final four Daytona races. Combining those factors, I think Allmendinger will be very competitive this week.
Zane Smith
Starts 15th - DK: $5,400, FD: $5,200
The math on Zane Smith making the 500 looks like this—I think, at least: if he finishes ahead of Chandler Smith, he's in the 500, or if Jimmie Johnson finishes ahead of Chandler Smith, Zane is in. That's going to put a lot of pressure on Chandler Smith of course, but it also puts pressure on Zane: the easiest way to guarantee a spot in the race is to finish ahead of the 13 car.
And, well...I expect him to race like he needs a good finish. Smith is in a Front Row Motorsports car, and last year Michael McDowell finished second in one of the Duels in an FRM car.
Smith only has one Cup Series start, so that lack of experience could be an issue. But on the other hand, he won the Truck Series race here last year, so he does know his way around this track. I think at this price point, he's worth playing, even with a lack of Cup Series races under his belt.
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