X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Biggest Fallers: K-BB%, Part 2

Frank Ammirante examines five more starting pitchers who experienced the biggest falls in K-BB% in 2019 and determines who you should target or avoid in upcoming fantasy baseball drafts.

K-BB% is a valuable metric because it shows which pitchers can combine strikeout ability with pinpoint control. Pitchers with high K-BB% possess high floors and ceilings because even when they’re not accumulating strikeouts, they are still usually able to pound the strike zone.

Name K-BB% '18 K-BB% '19 K-BB%-Diff ADP (NFBC)
Patrick Corbin 24.80% 20.10% 4.70% 48
Trevor Bauer 22.90% 18.80% 4.10% 82
Hyun-Jin Ryu 22.80% 19.20% 3.70% 123
Mike Foltynewicz 18.00% 13.80% 4.20% 203
Masahiro Tanaka 19.50% 14.40% 5.10% 223
Anibal Sanchez 16.80% 10.70% 6.10% 357
Marco Gonzales 16.50% 10.50% 6.00% 390
Mike Fiers 14.30% 9.70% 4.60% 392
Rick Porcello 17.60% 12.80% 4.80% 404
Zach Eflin 15.70% 11.50% 4.20% 452

Part 2 of this series will examine five of the biggest K-BB% fallers in 2019, sorted by ADP, focusing on the bottom five pitchers on the list above.

You can also read Part 1 of this biggest K-BB% fallers series.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Anibal Sanchez (RHP, Washington Nationals)

Sanchez entered the 2019 season as an intriguing late-round target on the heels of a 2018 season where he posted a 2.83 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 7.6 BB%, and 24.4 K% in 136.2 IP. His cutter (.283 xwOBA) and splitter (.208 xwOBA) were plus pitches, while his 10.5 SwStr% was his highest total since 2013. Sanchez ultimately regressed in 2019, putting up a 3.85 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 8.2 BB%, and 18.8 K% in 166.0 IP. Hitters feasted on his fastball with a .585 xSLG and .388 xwOBA, a significant increase from a .399 xSLG and 318 xwOBA from the previous season.

The sharp decrease in K-BB% is a major red flag for Sanchez’s 2020 outlook. He needs his fastball to be more effective for everything else to fall into place, but the problem is that it’s flat with limited movement and low velocity (90.2 MPH). Steamer projects Sanchez to post a 5.06 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 8.0 BB%, and 19.7 K% in 163.0 IP. It’s hard to view him as anything more than an underwhelming streamer, even in deeper leagues. 

 

Marco Gonzales (LHP, Seattle Mariners)

Gonzales’ appeal is his high volume and strong control - he posted a 4.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 4.7 BB%, and 21.1 K% in 166.2 IP in 2018. His ability to induce groundballs at a strong rate (45.3 GB%) helped make up for his low strikeout rate. This past season, Gonzales posted similar surface numbers, with a 3.99 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.5 BB%, and 17.0 K% in 203.0 IP, but the decline in K-BB% is alarming. Gonzales already struggled to miss bats, but last season it became even worse - his SwStr% declined from 9.3% to 7.9%, a mark that ranked tied for third-worst in MLB.

Perhaps he needs to change up his pitch mix to be more effective - he increased his sinker usage from 24.6% to 38.5%, which lowered his groundball rate from 45.3% to 41.9%, as hitters became more accustomed to the pitch. Steamer projects Gonzales to put up a 4.61 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, and 17.7 K% in 193.0 IP. He’s merely an innings-eater with low upside who belongs on the waiver wire.

 

Mike Fiers (RHP, Oakland Athletics)

Fiers posted a 3.90 ERA, 1.19 WHIP, 7.0 BB%, and 16.7 K% in 184.2 for the A’s last season. What was once a strikeout pitcher (27.7 K%, in 2014) is now merely a low-end streamer due to his low strikeout rate. Fiers put up an abysmal 7.9 SwStr% this past season, demonstrating a real difficulty in missing bats. This is troubling for a pitcher who has always had a problem with home runs (1.2+ HR/9 in every year since 2014). Fiers was also one of the luckier pitchers in MLB, as his 4.97 xFIP and 5.19 SIERA were over a full run higher than his ERA.

Steamer projects Fiers to put up a 5.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 7.1 BB%, and 17.5 K% in 188.0 IP. ATC composite projections are more bullish at a 4.63 ERA and 1.35 WHIP in just 169 IP. At this stage in his career, Fiers is an innings-eater who is more useful to the A’s than your fantasy team. This is an underwhelming option with low upside - you would be wise to avoid him in drafts and select a pitcher with more strikeout ability.

 

Rick Porcello (RHP, New York Mets)

It’s hard to believe that Porcello won a Cy Young only three years ago after such a fall from grace. He finished the 2019 season with an ugly 5.52 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, and 18.6 K% in 174.1 IP. Hitters hit him harder, as his Barrel% rose from 7.0% to 9.6%, while he failed to induce groundballs at his career norms, as his GB% fell from 44.9% to 38.9%. Perhaps the move from the Red Sox to Mets will help him improve on such a poor season. However, the Mets’ infield defense is among the worst in baseball, which is bad news for a sinker-dependent pitcher, so the park upgrade might be mitigated by a decline in defense.

Steamer projects Porcello for a 4.62 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 6.2 BB%, and 20.7 K% in 165.0 IP. Like Gonzales and Sanchez, Porcello is an underwhelming option, even in deeper leagues. It’s possible that he could turn in a season similar to 2018, where he put up a 4.28 ERA, 1.18 WHIP, 5.9 BB%, and 23.5 K% in 191.1 IP, but it’s better to leave him on the waiver wire and monitor his progress. 

 

Zach Eflin (RHP, Philadelphia Phillies)

Eflin put up a 4.13 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 6.8 BB%, and 18.3 K% in 163.1 IP. These numbers were inflated by a terrible month of May, where he was shelled for an 11.88 ERA and 2.28 WHIP in 16.2 IP. Eflin’s SwStr% declined from 10.3% to 9.0%, as his changeup was not as effective - its SwStr% declined from 17.9% to 8.6%. Eflin’s curveball was also hit much harder this past season, as its xwOBAcon rose from .337 to .565. We also saw the effects of the juiced ball, as his HR/9 increased from 1.13 to 1.54. We need to see him miss more bats in order to trust him again as a streamer.

Steamer projects Eflin to put up a 5.05 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 6.8 BB%, and 16.8 K% in 146.0 IP. Entering his age 26 season, Eflin is a better option than veterans like Fiers, but still should be viewed as no more than a potential streamer. He simply does not strike out enough hitters to warrant a roster spot on your fantasy team.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Jake McCarthy6 mins ago

Gabriel Moreno, Jake McCarthy Sitting On Thursday
Dallas Cowboys9 mins ago

Shemar Stewart Meeting With Cowboys Staff
Ketel Marte17 mins ago

Sitting On Thursday After Signing Extension
New York Giants22 mins ago

Travis Hunter The Likely Pick For Giants?
Jake Meyers29 mins ago

Taking Seat For Third Straight Contest
Dallas Cowboys39 mins ago

DeMarvion Overshown Aiming For Comeback Player Of The Year Award
Luis Garcia40 mins ago

Shut Down With Elbow Inflammation
Brett Harris49 mins ago

Activated, Optioned To Triple-A
Yainer Diaz56 mins ago

Sitting On Thursday
Washington Commanders1 hour ago

Commanders Sign T.J. Maguranyanga
Kansas City Chiefs2 hours ago

Mike Edwards Reunites With Chiefs
New Orleans Saints2 hours ago

Saints Could Take A Quarterback Early In The Draft
Carlos Rodón2 hours ago

Carlos Rodon Undergoes X-Rays After Taking Liner Off His Arm
Drew Waters2 hours ago

Hits For The Cycle On Wednesday
Harry Ford2 hours ago

Showing Strong Eye Through First Taste Of Triple-A
Christian Vázquez2 hours ago

Christian Vazquez Getting The Day Off
Jose Miranda2 hours ago

Out Again On Thursday
Chase Meidroth2 hours ago

Launches Second Long Ball
Lucas Giolito2 hours ago

Brayan Bello, Lucas Giolito "Not Close" To Returning To Rotation
Baltimore Orioles3 hours ago

Michael Forret Making Jump To Double-A
Connor Wong3 hours ago

Getting The Day Off In Matinee
Grayson Rodriguez3 hours ago

Throws Second Bullpen Session
Enrique Bradfield Jr.3 hours ago

Starting Season With Double-A Bowie
Ryan Mountcastle3 hours ago

Sitting In Series Finale Against Boston
Baltimore Orioles3 hours ago

Nestor German Starting Campaign At Double-A
Gunnar Henderson3 hours ago

Probable To Return From Injured List On Friday
Joe Milton III4 hours ago

Traded To Cowboys
Anfernee Simons5 hours ago

Could Be Absent Again Thursday
Scoot Henderson6 hours ago

Misses Third Consecutive Game Thursday
Scottie Barnes6 hours ago

Iffy For Thursday
A.J. Puk6 hours ago

Holds On For Second Save Of The Season
Immanuel Quickley6 hours ago

Takes Thursday Off
Jakob Poeltl6 hours ago

Sits Out Thursday's Game
Damian Lillard6 hours ago

May Return To Action Sooner Than Expected
Giannis Antetokounmpo6 hours ago

Likely To Suit Up Thursday
LeBron James6 hours ago

Probable Thursday
Jared McCann8 hours ago

Tallies Three Helpers On Wednesday
Jackson Blake8 hours ago

Scores Twice In Victory
Artemi Panarin8 hours ago

Tallies Three Points In Overtime Victory
Andrei Svechnikov8 hours ago

Exits Early On Wednesday
Jake McCabe8 hours ago

Suffers Injury On Wednesday
Jonathan Drouin8 hours ago

Exits Wednesday's Contest
Los Angeles Chargers16 hours ago

Chargers Sign Tight End Jordan Petaia
17 hours ago

Matthew Golden Making Pre-Draft Visit To Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals17 hours ago

Trey Hendrickson Not Looking For Short-Term Deal
Tutu Atwell17 hours ago

Rams Plan To Give Tutu Atwell A Bigger Role In 2025
Tampa Bay Buccaneers17 hours ago

Bucs Restructure Antoine Winfield's Deal To Free Up Cap Space
Jrue Holiday19 hours ago

Won't Play Against Miami
New York Jets19 hours ago

Xavier Newman-Johnson Re-Signs With New York
Al Horford20 hours ago

Sidelined Versus Heat
Kristaps Porzingis20 hours ago

Ruled Out On Wednesday
Fred VanVleet20 hours ago

Out Versus Utah
Dean Wade20 hours ago

Sidelined On Wednesday
Trae Young21 hours ago

Expected To Suit Up On Wednesday
Joel Embiid21 hours ago

Will Undergo Arthroscopic Surgery On His Left Knee
Evgeni Malkin21 hours ago

Joins Penguins For Road Trip
Filip Chytil21 hours ago

Could Miss Rest Of Season
Declan Chisholm21 hours ago

Back In Action Against Rangers
Keaton Wallace21 hours ago

Sidelined Again On Wednesday
Samuel Girard21 hours ago

Exits Avalanche Lineup Wednesday
Joel Kiviranta21 hours ago

Returning Against Blackhawks
Eeli Tolvanen22 hours ago

Misses First Game Of The Season
Jaden Schwartz22 hours ago

Unavailable Against Canucks
23 hours ago

Kyle McCord Rising Up Draft Boards?
23 hours ago

Ashton Jeanty To Raiders Continues To Gain Steam
23 hours ago

Emeka Egbuka To Fall To Round 2?
Los Angeles Rams23 hours ago

Rob Havenstein Expected To Be Ready For Training Camp
Cleveland Browns1 day ago

Mike Hall Likely To Miss Offseason Program After Having Knee Surgery
New England Patriots1 day ago

Christian Barmore Expected To Be Ready For Offseason Workouts
1 day ago

Saints Expected To Visit With Quinn Ewers
Jake Moody1 day ago

49ers To Bring In Competition For Jake Moody
Bennedict Mathurin1 day ago

Iffy For Wednesday
Myles Turner1 day ago

May Miss Another Game Wednesday
Al Horford1 day ago

Considered Doubtful Wednesday
Jrue Holiday1 day ago

Questionable For Wednesday's Game
Kristaps Porzingis1 day ago

Listed As Questionable For Wednesday
Evan Bouchard1 day ago

Tallies Two Assists In Victory
Jake Guentzel1 day ago

Tallies Goal, Assist In Victory
Kirill Marchenko1 day ago

Scores Hat Trick On Tuesday
Tage Thompson1 day ago

Stays Hot On The Scoresheet
Lane Hutson1 day ago

Dishes Out Three Helpers In Overtime Victory
Alex Ovechkin1 day ago

Tallies Two Points In Victory
Cameron Young2 days ago

A Player To Avoid At Valero Texas Open
Kurt Kitayama2 days ago

In Search Of Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Si Woo Kim2 days ago

Looking To Bounce Back At Valero Texas Open
Tom Hoge2 days ago

Looking To Build Off Strong Performance At The PLAYERS Championship
Matt Fitzpatrick2 days ago

Looking For Consistency At Valero Texas Open
Corey Conners2 days ago

Continues Strong Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Patrick Cantlay2 days ago

Eyeing Victory At Valero Texas Open
Gary Woodland2 days ago

Showing Great Form Ahead Of Valero Texas Open
Akshay Bhatia2 days ago

Aiming For Repeat At Valero Texas Open
Alejandro Tosti2 days ago

A Volatile Choice At TPC San Antonio
Jimmy Snuggerud2 days ago

Ready For NHL Debut Tuesday
Jacob Trouba2 days ago

Set To Rejoin Ducks Lineup Tuesday
Jordan Spieth2 days ago

Needs To Find Consistency At TPC San Antonio
Jake Knapp2 days ago

Making First Appearance At Valero Texas Open
Michael Kim2 days ago

Looking To Find The Magic Again In San Antonio
Tommy Fleetwood2 days ago

Is Nearly A Must-Play At Valero Texas Open
Tony Finau2 days ago

Hoping For Better Approach Play In San Antonio
Eric Cole2 days ago

Trending In Right Direction Ahead Of Valero
Sam Stevens3 days ago

Enjoys Nice Result In Houston
PGA3 days ago

J.T. Poston Seeks To Contend At Valero Texas Open
Denny McCarthy3 days ago

Keeps Making Cuts But Needs To Make More Putts
Brian Harman3 days ago

Off To A Subpar 2025 So Far
Ryan Preece3 days ago

Has Three Straight Top-10 Finishes For First Time In His Career
NASCAR3 days ago

Bubba Wallace After Third-Place Finish At Martinsville: "What a Great Day"
Todd Gilliland3 days ago

Has Mistake-Free Day At Martinsville, Grabs Another Top-10 Finish
Brandon Moreno3 days ago

Wins Back-To-Back Fights
Steve Erceg3 days ago

Losses Third Consecutive Fight
Drew Dober3 days ago

Gets Knocked Out At UFC Mexico City
Manuel Torres3 days ago

Gets Back In The Win Column
Harry Hall3 days ago

Bounces Back In Houston Last Week
CJ Vergara3 days ago

Gets Submitted
Édgar Cháirez3 days ago

Edgar Chairez Gets Submission Win At UFC Mexico City
Vince Morales3 days ago

Drops Decision At UFC Mexico City
Raul Rosas Jr.3 days ago

Gets Decision Win At UFC Mexico City
Saimon Oliveira3 days ago

Still Winless In The UFC
David Martinez3 days ago

Wins His UFC Debut
Kevin Borjas3 days ago

Earns His First UFC Win
Ronaldo Rodríguez3 days ago

Ronaldo Rodriguez Suffers His First UFC Loss
Christopher Bell3 days ago

Powers His Way To A Second-Place Finish At Martinsville
Chase Elliott3 days ago

Strong Martinsville Performance Ends With A Top-Five Finish
Kyle Larson3 days ago

Collects A Top-Five Finish At Martinsville
William Byron3 days ago

Places 22nd After Struggles At Martinsville
Joey Logano3 days ago

Claims His First 2025 Top-10 Finish After Up-And-Down Performance
Tyler Reddick3 days ago

Fails To Place In The Top 10 At Martinsville
Denny Hamlin3 days ago

Silences Doubters After Crew-Chief Change
Ty Gibbs3 days ago

Earns Best 2025 Finish At Martinsville Despite Failing Cool Suit
Ross Chastain3 days ago

Has A Great Day At Martinsville
Chase Briscoe3 days ago

Has Solid Run At Martinsville
Erik Jones3 days ago

Disqualified At Martinsville For Weight Violation
Josh Berry4 days ago

Has Top-10 Upside At Martinsville
Joey Logano4 days ago

Don't Overlook Joey Logano This Weekend
Ryan Preece4 days ago

Could Get First Three-Race Top-10 Streak Of His Career
Chase Elliott4 days ago

Looking To Continue Great Runs At Martinsville
Christopher Bell4 days ago

Wins Pole At Martinsville, But Can He Stay Up There?
Ryan Blaney4 days ago

Fast In Practice But Skeptical About Car
Denny Hamlin4 days ago

New Crew Chief Has Terrible Martinsville Record
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF