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The Bigger Picture - Where We've Gone Wrong This Year

Pierre Camus reflects on 2021 preseason consensus rankings for fantasy baseball to determine what the industry got correct.

Expectations are a dangerous thing. They can dictate our decision-making processes well into the future and prevent us from seeing things as they truly are.

The baseball season is the longest of any professional team sport, spanning eight full months including spring training. That means a lot will change throughout the course of the season itself and the expectations we set forth when predicting what will happen are largely off-base.

The "we" referenced in this article is the fantasy baseball community at large. This series is about evaluating Major League Baseball from a macro level, so it's logical to encapsulate the majority opinion rather than my own. Of course, generalizing is also a dangerous practice. Consensus rankings don't reflect how everyone feels but it's most representative of the analyst point of view.  As we are unofficially halfway through the 2021 MLB season, it's a good time to step back and review what we've gotten right and wrong so far.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Consensus Preseason Top-100 Rankings

This is the consensus from a compilation of 55 experts who submitted draft rankings to FantasyPros' ECR before April 1, 2021, including yours truly. Before diving into the analysis, take a gander and make note of which players don't belong on this list and who is missing.

Rank Player Team Positions
1 Ronald Acuna Jr. ATL OF
2 Mookie Betts LAD OF
3 Fernando Tatis Jr. SD SS
4 Juan Soto WSH OF
5 Mike Trout LAA OF
6 Jacob deGrom NYM SP
7 Trea Turner WSH SS
8 Gerrit Cole NYY SP
9 Christian Yelich MIL OF
10 Trevor Story COL SS
11 Jose Ramirez CLE 3B
12 Shane Bieber CLE SP
13 Freddie Freeman ATL 1B
14 Bryce Harper PHI OF
15 Cody Bellinger LAD 1B/OF
16 Francisco Lindor NYM SS
17 Manny Machado SD 3B/SS
18 Yu Darvish SD SP
19 Trevor Bauer LAD SP
20 Lucas Giolito CWS SP
21 Bo Bichette TOR SS
22 Walker Buehler LAD SP
23 Aaron Nola PHI SP
24 Xander Bogaerts BOS SS
25 Max Scherzer WSH SP
26 Anthony Rendon LAA 3B
27 Corey Seager LAD SS
28 Rafael Devers BOS 3B
29 Jack Flaherty STL SP
30 Ozzie Albies ATL 2B
31 Luis Castillo CIN SP
32 Jose Abreu CWS 1B
33 Kyle Tucker HOU OF
34 Clayton Kershaw LAD SP
35 Marcell Ozuna ATL OF
36 DJ LeMahieu NYY 1B/2B/3B
37 Alex Bregman HOU 3B/SS
38 Luis Robert CWS OF
39 Tim Anderson CWS SS
40 Brandon Woodruff MIL SP
41 Whit Merrifield KC 2B/OF
42 Starling Marte MIA OF
43 Nolan Arenado STL 3B
44 Blake Snell SD SP
45 Adalberto Mondesi KC SS
46 Pete Alonso NYM 1B
47 Aaron Judge NYY OF
48 George Springer TOR OF
49 Vladimir Guerrero Jr. TOR 1B/3B
50 Tyler Glasnow TB SP
51 Randy Arozarena TB OF
52 Gleyber Torres NYY 2B/SS
53 Kenta Maeda MIN SP/RP
54 Yordan Alvarez HOU OF
55 J.T. Realmuto PHI C
56 Javier Baez CHC SS
57 Lance Lynn CWS SP
58 Eugenio Suarez CIN 3B/SS
59 Michael Conforto NYM OF
60 Nelson Cruz MIN DH
61 J.D. Martinez BOS OF
62 Josh Hader MIL RP
63 Nick Castellanos CIN OF
64 Corbin Burnes MIL SP/RP
65 Liam Hendriks CWS RP
66 Paul Goldschmidt STL 1B
67 Ketel Marte ARI 2B/SS/OF
68 Keston Hiura MIL 1B/2B
69 Charlie Blackmon COL OF
70 Hyun-Jin Ryu TOR SP
71 Austin Meadows TB OF
72 Jose Altuve HOU 2B
73 Stephen Strasburg WSH SP
74 Anthony Rizzo CHC 1B
75 Aroldis Chapman NYY RP
76 Yoan Moncada CWS 3B
77 Kyle Hendricks CHC SP
78 Matt Olson OAK 1B
79 Brandon Lowe TB 1B/2B/OF
80 Trent Grisham SD OF
81 Teoscar Hernandez TOR OF
82 Giancarlo Stanton NYY OF
83 Jose Berrios MIN SP
84 Lourdes Gurriel Jr. TOR 2B/OF
85 Edwin Diaz NYM RP
86 Max Fried ATL SP
87 Eddie Rosario CLE OF
88 Sonny Gray CIN SP
89 Cavan Biggio TOR 2B/3B/OF
90 Matt Chapman OAK 3B
91 Zack Greinke HOU SP
92 Zack Wheeler PHI SP
93 Jeff McNeil NYM 2B/3B/OF
94 Max Muncy LAD 1B/2B/3B
95 Charlie Morton ATL SP
96 Dansby Swanson ATL SS
97 Raisel Iglesias LAA RP
98 Carlos Correa HOU SS
99 Jesus Luzardo OAK SP/RP
100 Kris Bryant CHC 1B/3B/OF

The San Francisco Giants have the best record in the majors, yet not a single player was deemed good enough to draft in the first several rounds. Who knew Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey would have career revivals?

Although he had his share of detractors, I doubt anyone predicted Keston Hiura would be demoted by May. Perhaps an even bigger letdown is Mr. Consistent, Anthony Rendon, slashing .233/.322/.364 after three months.

Unpredictability is a part of every sports season but that's what keeps things interesting. Let's reflect now on the best hits and biggest misses of 2021 so far from an analyst's viewpoint.

 

Bullseye

Stolen Bases Will Be At a Premium

The rate of steals has been going down for several years and that trend hasn't reversed in 2021. As of the final day of June, 23 players reached double-digit steals. Of those, 12 are legit fantasy studs, four have been mostly startable in 12-team formats, five have been useful in stretches but not reliable, and four have been downright unusable despite high SB totals. Paying up for steals early was a smart move. Unless you took Adalberto Mondesi, that is.

Toronto's Offense Will Be Fantasy-Friendly

As of the midpoint of the season, The Jays have three of the top 10 fantasy players with Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and, of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Teoscar Hernandez is having another strong campaign too, ranking as a top-50 hitter. We can only imagine what George Springer would look like in the Jays lineup every day.

Miami's Pitching Staff Is Worth the Investment

Several of our RotoBaller analysts were bullish on the Marlins' rotation, which turned out to be a wise choice. Sandy Alcantara doesn't post extraordinary K totals but he is keeping solid low-end SP2 value with a 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP amid a league-high 17 starts. Then there's boring old Pablo Lopez who continues to lower his ratios each year, now down to a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP as of this writing.

Sixto Sanchez and Elieser Hernandez have had their seasons wiped out by injuries to this point but that's where deep sleeper Trevor Rogers has been a revelation in their stead. Rogers ranks as a top-15 fantasy SP and has an xERA, xwOBA, and Whiff% all in the 85th percentile or higher. Zach Thompson looks pretty good after four starts too.

Dead Wrong

Shohei Ohtani the batter isn't worth using up your Util spot.

? This was a mistake many made, including myself. The issue has never been talent but rather long-term health. Ohtani had UCL issues not long after coming to the majors, was limited to two starts as a pitcher last year and struggled in the batter's box by hitting just .190 with seven homers across 153 at-bats. He seems to be pretty healthy this year and we're seeing ShoTime in full effect.

Ohtani (SP/DH) was ranked 154 in preseason ECR and Ohtani (Batter) was 344 overall in Yahoo's preseason rankings. Needless to say, he's well surpassed those as the *checks math* best baseball player in the known universe.

One-year wonders from the short season weren't worth the plunge.

Zach Plesac, Devin Williams, and Dylan Moore were rock stars over 60 games in a COVID-shortened season. Needless to say, they haven't sustained that success.

Plesac isn't killing fantasy teams with his ratios at a 4.12 ERA and 1.02 WHIP but his K% has plummeted from 27.7% to 16.2%. Still a great slider, just not enough to complement it.

Williams' filthy changeup is just as effective as it was last season but his fastball has gone from a .192 BAA in 2020 to .348 in 2021. He wasn't drafted too high seeing as how he's never been the closer but there was hope because the Brewers were rumored to be shopping Josh Hader before he hit free agency. Now that the Brew Crew is on a winning streak and very much in contention, it looks like they might hold tight and render Williams completely irrelevant in fantasy.

Moore was a late-ish modest breakout but somewhat of a waiver wire revelation midseason. He accumulated eight HR and 12 SB in just 38 games, leading many to view him as the ideal fallback option at second base. He's just one off his HR/SB totals of last year except it's across 35 more at-bats and he's carrying a .196 average.

Dylan Bundy should be added to this list now too. His breakthrough after moving out of Baltimore looked legit but his 2021 numbers say otherwise.

Injured pitchers are always a bad idea.

Yet for some reason, we convince ourselves that they can return to dominance if they can just stay on the mound for most of the season. They can't and they won't.

Dinelson Lamet, Sixto Sanchez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton, and Mike Soroka had ADPs of 113, 150, 167, 169, 170, and 174 respectively. That means all were drafted in a typical 12-team redraft league. That's a draft pick that could have been used on Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery, Cristian Javier, or Freddy Peralta, all of whom were drafted after pick 180 on average.

Then there's Stephen Strasburg and his 73rd overall ADP. He looked great in spring training though!

There are enough injuries taking place during the season that it's not worth risking a draft pick on a player whose risk is already sky-high. Sorry to say, but boring is usually what wins fantasy leagues.

 

What Now?

Unless things have gone horribly wrong, you are still in contention in your fantasy league. Remember, it's not really a marathon so much as a series of sprints. Even if you are behind in the standings, you can catch up by playing the waiver wire and trade market smartly.

Step one is to take those preseason expectations and burn them in a fire. Whatever you thought was going to happen is meaningless now. Take a hard look at the sabermetrics to figure out what the current trends are and how players are performing compared to career norms. There could well be regression in store but outlier seasons happen too. If you get too stuck in the past, you will never be present.



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