The Bigger Picture - Where We've Gone Wrong This Year

July 3, 2021

Pierre Camus reflects on 2021 preseason consensus rankings for fantasy baseball to determine what the industry got correct.

Expectations are a dangerous thing. They can dictate our decision-making processes well into the future and prevent us from seeing things as they truly are.

The baseball season is the longest of any professional team sport, spanning eight full months including spring training. That means a lot will change throughout the course of the season itself and the expectations we set forth when predicting what will happen are largely off-base.

The "we" referenced in this article is the fantasy baseball community at large. This series is about evaluating Major League Baseball from a macro level, so it's logical to encapsulate the majority opinion rather than my own. Of course, generalizing is also a dangerous practice. Consensus rankings don't reflect how everyone feels but it's most representative of the analyst point of view.  As we are unofficially halfway through the 2021 MLB season, it's a good time to step back and review what we've gotten right and wrong so far.

Consensus Preseason Top-100 Rankings

This is the consensus from a compilation of 55 experts who submitted draft rankings to FantasyPros' ECR before April 1, 2021, including yours truly. Before diving into the analysis, take a gander and make note of which players don't belong on this list and who is missing.

The San Francisco Giants have the best record in the majors, yet not a single player was deemed good enough to draft in the first several rounds. Who knew Brandon Crawford and Buster Posey would have career revivals?

Although he had his share of detractors, I doubt anyone predicted Keston Hiura would be demoted by May. Perhaps an even bigger letdown is Mr. Consistent, Anthony Rendon, slashing .233/.322/.364 after three months.

Unpredictability is a part of every sports season but that's what keeps things interesting. Let's reflect now on the best hits and biggest misses of 2021 so far from an analyst's viewpoint.

Bullseye

Stolen Bases Will Be At a Premium

The rate of steals has been going down for several years and that trend hasn't reversed in 2021. As of the final day of June, 23 players reached double-digit steals. Of those, 12 are legit fantasy studs, four have been mostly startable in 12-team formats, five have been useful in stretches but not reliable, and four have been downright unusable despite high SB totals. Paying up for steals early was a smart move. Unless you took Adalberto Mondesi, that is.

Toronto's Offense Will Be Fantasy-Friendly

As of the midpoint of the season, The Jays have three of the top 10 fantasy players with Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette, and, of course, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Teoscar Hernandez is having another strong campaign too, ranking as a top-50 hitter. We can only imagine what George Springer would look like in the Jays lineup every day.

Miami's Pitching Staff Is Worth the Investment

Several of our RotoBaller analysts were bullish on the Marlins' rotation, which turned out to be a wise choice. Sandy Alcantara doesn't post extraordinary K totals but he is keeping solid low-end SP2 value with a 3.12 ERA, 1.06 WHIP amid a league-high 17 starts. Then there's boring old Pablo Lopez who continues to lower his ratios each year, now down to a 2.87 ERA and 1.07 WHIP as of this writing.

Sixto Sanchez and Elieser Hernandez have had their seasons wiped out by injuries to this point but that's where deep sleeper Trevor Rogers has been a revelation in their stead. Rogers ranks as a top-15 fantasy SP and has an xERA, xwOBA, and Whiff% all in the 85th percentile or higher. Zach Thompson looks pretty good after four starts too.

Trevor Rogers, Nasty 82mph Slider. ? pic.twitter.com/Vx5aEOTfLU

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 30, 2021

Trevor Rogers has the 8th best ERA and 16th-highest strikeout rate amongst ALL qualified starting pitchers this season.

— Prospects 365 ⚾️ (@Prospects365) June 30, 2021

Dead Wrong

Shohei Ohtani the batter isn't worth using up your Util spot.

? This was a mistake many made, including myself. The issue has never been talent but rather long-term health. Ohtani had UCL issues not long after coming to the majors, was limited to two starts as a pitcher last year and struggled in the batter's box by hitting just .190 with seven homers across 153 at-bats. He seems to be pretty healthy this year and we're seeing ShoTime in full effect.

Ohtani (SP/DH) was ranked 154 in preseason ECR and Ohtani (Batter) was 344 overall in Yahoo's preseason rankings. Needless to say, he's well surpassed those as the *checks math* best baseball player in the known universe.

One-year wonders from the short season weren't worth the plunge.

Zach Plesac, Devin Williams, and Dylan Moore were rock stars over 60 games in a COVID-shortened season. Needless to say, they haven't sustained that success.

Plesac isn't killing fantasy teams with his ratios at a 4.12 ERA and 1.02 WHIP but his K% has plummeted from 27.7% to 16.2%. Still a great slider, just not enough to complement it.

Williams' filthy changeup is just as effective as it was last season but his fastball has gone from a .192 BAA in 2020 to .348 in 2021. He wasn't drafted too high seeing as how he's never been the closer but there was hope because the Brewers were rumored to be shopping Josh Hader before he hit free agency. Now that the Brew Crew is on a winning streak and very much in contention, it looks like they might hold tight and render Williams completely irrelevant in fantasy.

Moore was a late-ish modest breakout but somewhat of a waiver wire revelation midseason. He accumulated eight HR and 12 SB in just 38 games, leading many to view him as the ideal fallback option at second base. He's just one off his HR/SB totals of last year except it's across 35 more at-bats and he's carrying a .196 average.

Dylan Bundy should be added to this list now too. His breakthrough after moving out of Baltimore looked legit but his 2021 numbers say otherwise.

when you remember that Dylan Bundy had a 5.45 ERA with the Orioles in 2018

pic.twitter.com/o9279VwYUn

— OLIVIA witherite (@Oliviawitherite) June 29, 2021

Injured pitchers are always a bad idea.

Yet for some reason, we convince ourselves that they can return to dominance if they can just stay on the mound for most of the season. They can't and they won't.

Dinelson Lamet, Sixto Sanchez, Corey Kluber, Carlos Carrasco, James Paxton, and Mike Soroka had ADPs of 113, 150, 167, 169, 170, and 174 respectively. That means all were drafted in a typical 12-team redraft league. That's a draft pick that could have been used on Chris Bassitt, Jordan Montgomery, Cristian Javier, or Freddy Peralta, all of whom were drafted after pick 180 on average.

Then there's Stephen Strasburg and his 73rd overall ADP. He looked great in spring training though!

There are enough injuries taking place during the season that it's not worth risking a draft pick on a player whose risk is already sky-high. Sorry to say, but boring is usually what wins fantasy leagues.

What Now?

Unless things have gone horribly wrong, you are still in contention in your fantasy league. Remember, it's not really a marathon so much as a series of sprints. Even if you are behind in the standings, you can catch up by playing the waiver wire and trade market smartly.

Step one is to take those preseason expectations and burn them in a fire. Whatever you thought was going to happen is meaningless now. Take a hard look at the sabermetrics to figure out what the current trends are and how players are performing compared to career norms. There could well be regression in store but outlier seasons happen too. If you get too stuck in the past, you will never be present.

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