RADIO
Defense and special teams unit (D/ST) is often overlooked in traditional fantasy football leagues. It's not as exciting as running backs who stiff-arm defenders to hell or wide receivers who pull down deep passes with one hand.
Fantasy football D/STs also do not score as much as offensive players, and their scoring fluctuates on a weekly basis. This is a reason to play IDP fantasy football, by the way, and use RotoBaller's IDP scoring system! It makes sense to wait until the end of a draft to pick a D/ST.
Still, you are going to want a good fantasy football D/ST. Last year, the difference between the DST1, the New England Patriots, and the DST12, the Cleveland Browns, was about five points per game. D/ST can make an impact on outcomes. I specialize in IDP (individual defensive players), but there's a lot of crossover in terms of making projections. The defenses with the best individual players will end up accumulating the most sacks and interceptions and allow fewer points on average.
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New England Patriots D/ST
Bill Belichick's Patriots have always been tough on defense. In 23 years, they have finished in the top ten for the fewest points allowed 16 times and in the top-five nine times.
That has made them a perennial contender for the title of DST1. In recent years, the Pats have finished as DST4 in 2018, DST1 in 2019, DST11 in 2020, DST2 in 2021, and DST1 again in 2022.
The Pats' defense was good but not elite in terms of stopping scoring and yardage last season. They ranked eighth in yards and only 11th in scoring defense. However, they dominated in terms of takeaways and defensive touchdowns.
They ranked third in interceptions, with 19, just one fewer than the 49ers and Steelers. And they returned five of those interceptions for touchdowns! Add to that two fumble recoveries taken for touchdowns and one punt returned for a touchdown. Safety Kyle Dugger and cornerback/punt returner Marcus Jones tied for third on the team in total touchdowns.
The Pats' defense might not repeat that high-scoring performance, but they did score three defensive touchdowns in 2021, too. The athleticism of Marcus Jones, who should get more playing time this season, is real.
After drafting shutdown corner Christian Watson in round one, the Patriots' defense will probably improve in terms of total defense even if it regresses in terms of defensive touchdowns, equaling a top-three finish.
New Orleans Saints D/ST
While the Saints lack playmakers on the defensive line, they have a tough defense that offenses are not happy to face. They were a little bit sloppy early on and in the middle of the season. This was especially true as shutdown corner Marshon Lattimore missed Weeks 6-16. They were elite towards the end of the season.
In their final six games, they allowed an average of 13.0 points per game. They held the Browns, Eagles, and Panthers each to 10 points in the final three games. Overall, they finished the season ranked fifth in total defense and ninth in scoring defense.
Stopping your opponent from scoring will only do so much for a fantasy football D/ST. The best DSTs also generate turnovers. Unfortunately, the Saints tied for the fewest takeaways in the league. I believe they can do better this year if Lattimore is healthy all season long.
Lattimore made five interceptions from 2020-2021 and should have made two to three interceptions last season if he had played 17 games. Safety Tyrann Mathieu made three picks, but he has a higher upside. He has made more than three interceptions in three of his seasons.
The Saints face a favorable schedule for defensive backs (DB) to maximize their INT totals. According to my projections, the Saints face the fifth-best schedule for DBs.
With four games against rookie quarterbacks who could be rattled, plus games against inexperienced near-rookies Jordan Love (Week 3), Desmond Ridder (Week 12), and the interception-prone Justin Fields (Week 9), the Saints coverage players could have opportunities to feast.
Buffalo Bills D/ST
The Bills' defensive line came out with a bang, sacking Matthew Stafford seven times and limiting the Rams to 10 points in the first game of the 2022 NFL season.
However, as the year went on, the Bills' defensive line performance didn't last. Their Week 1 destruction of the Rams looked less impressive as the Rams struggled against everyone.
The Bills finished as the DST3 in Week 1 and the DST4 in Week 2, but then from Week 3 to Week 13, they finished outside of the top-twelve six times. In their final four games of the season, they got it together and had three top-ten finishes. Including another IDP1 showing in Week 18 that didn't do anything for anyone.
It was all good for an IDP4 finish on the season. The Bills lost middle linebacker Tremaine Edmunds, one of the top-15 or so at his position. They will try to replace him with Tyrel Dodson, who made 32 tackles in just 220 snaps last season.
On the plus side, safety Micah Hyde, who played just two games last season, is healthy. The Bills should still be one of the top-five defenses, but the Patriots, Eagles, 49ers, and perhaps even the Steelers are better choices.
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST
The Steelers DST's average fantasy scoring with T.J. Watt playing was 9.2 points per game. That would have ranked as IDP4. Without Watt, however, it plummeted to 2.1 points per game.
If T.J. Watt can stay healthy a whole season, he is projected for 10-20 sacks and a couple of forced fumbles, fumble recoveries, and interceptions.
Not only that, but he also elevates the play of his teammates. Cam Heyward and Alex Highsmith, as good as they are in their own right, actually make more sacks and more impact plays on average when Watt is active.
Rookie Nick Herbig, while he might start the season as a rotational backup, looked good in the first game of the preseason, too. Offenses have to devote so many resources to stopping the three-time All-Pro.
Watt has had injury problems for a couple of years, but usually, he only missed a couple of games or left games early. The Steelers defense is thus a little bit risky. However, they face a slew of teams with weak offensive lines and sack-prone quarterbacks that maximize their defensive line's upside.
According to my DL strength of schedule projections, the Steelers have the fifth-easiest schedule for pass rushers. This includes matchups against the second-worst offensive line in the league (the Rams) and two matchups against the Browns, who were allowing 3.33 sacks per game when Deshaun Watson was starting.
Cleveland Browns D/ST
The Browns are another team with a strong defensive line that face a bunch of teams with below-average offensive lines. The AFC North faces every team in the NFC West, so that includes the aforementioned Rams, the Arizona Cardinals, and the Seahawks. The Cardinals have the second-worst offensive line in PFF's rankings and the fifth-worst if you combine Sharp's and PFN's ranks. The Seahawks have the seventh-worst offensive line.
Incumbent left defensive end Myles Garrett already made 16.0 sacks for the Browns in each of the past two seasons. Now the team added Za'Darius Smith, depth piece Ogbonnia Okoronkwo, and even Dalvin Tomlinson playing the run and pass from the interior.
Smith had double-digit sacks in each of his past three healthy seasons and Okoronkwo had five sacks last season with Houston. They replace the underachieving Jadeveon Clowney, who was benched at the end of last season after finishing with just two sacks and only four QB hits.
There is stand-alone value in all of the sacks the Browns' defense should pile up this season. They boost the defensive, especially the DBs, as a whole.
Cornerbacks Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome won't have to hold their receivers in coverage for so long, as opposing quarterbacks will be pressured to get the ball out quickly. The Browns are my pick for the best-value DST at ADP.
Jacksonville Jaguars D/ST
The Jacksonville Jaguars had four defensive players who made three interceptions last season. They have multiple highly-drafted prospects on the defensive line, but so far, only Josh Allen has come close to performing as well as expected.
The number one overall pick of 2022, Travon Walker, only made 3.5 sacks and five tackles for loss. If he improves, the Jags' defense, which finished as DST7 last season, could jump into the top five.
Houston Texans D/ST
The Texans face the best schedule for pass rushers to maximize sacks, and they strengthened their D-line by taking Will Anderson Jr. with the number three pick in the draft.
They are being drafted on average in the 23rd round, which means they are going to be undrafted and available on the waiver wire in many leagues. Keep the Texans in mind as a streaming DST in managed leagues, and draft them as a depth piece if you are in a Best Ball league that uses DSTs.
Are the Eagles and 49ers DSTs Worth It?
You should know that the Eagles and 49ers are two of the best defenses, but they are going at ADPs of DST1 and DST2 in NFC drafts. Both teams lost their defensive coordinators this offseason.
While they should remain top-tier defenses, I am not convinced they are worth targeting in the seventh round, where they have gone in some drafts.
If they are on the board in the 14th round or so when the rest of the DSTs are going, then, by all means, take one of them if you just happen to be in the right spot.
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