Thursday Night Football Matchups Analysis - Week 2

September 17, 2020

Thursday Night Football starts/sits and matchups analysis for Week 2 of the 2020 NFL season. Which Bengals and Browns to start or sit for fantasy football lineups.

Finally, Week 1 of football is in the books. Going into the two Monday night games, 686 points were scored. In comparison, week one of the 2019 season had 678 points scored going into the Monday night games. Clearly, contrary to many predictions, the NFL teams didn’t seem to miss a beat with no preseason. Even more surprising was that the rookies seemed to walk right into the NFL and put up many fantasy-relevant performances. 

Last week on Thursday Night Football, the NFL graced us with a barn burner of a match, having Deshaun Watson and Patrick Mahomes go head to head. As expected, Kansas City dominated the game and both teams were able to showcase their offensive prowess. This week, we have another great matchup for Thursday Night Football as the 0-1 Cincinnati Bengals are going to Cleveland to face the 0-1 Browns.

Both teams were unfortunately up against projected top-tier defenses in Week 1, making many of their offseason questions left unanswered. Thankfully, in a matchup where both defenses are projected to be in the bottom half of the league, these answers should be found on Thursday. Here is your RotoBaller Thursday night preview for Week 2.

Quarterbacks

Joe Burrow

“He got it. He got the sauce, he got the flavor, he got the confidence. I loved everything I saw from Joe Burrow.” - Nate Burleson on Joe Burrow after Week 1. Although coming short of the victory (which was not Burrow’s fault in the slightest), Joe Burrow demonstrated why he deserved to be the first player selected in the draft. Having said that, his debut performance did have a few mistakes, from an interception to holding onto the ball and taking a 14-yard sack. There were times where he just looked like a rookie.

However, when you consider Cincinnati's sub-par offensive line and the top tier defense he was up against, these mistakes are fairly minor. I believe all potential doubts and criticisms were silenced during the Bengals’ 2-minute drill to end the game. Burrow began the drive with a seven-yard QB draw followed by consecutive completions and overcoming both a penalty and an overturned completion. Regardless, Burrow was not deterred and continued the methodical drive. To end the drive, he threw a dime to A.J. Green in the endzone that was ruled offensive pass interference, resulting in Randy Bullock’s missed field goal to end the game. 

For fantasy purposes, what this drive showed was Burrow’s ability to put up fantasy points. After calling his own number for a 23-yard touchdown run and multiple QB draw attempts, the rushing upside revealed itself to be there. Finishing the game with 193 yards through the air, 46 yards on the ground, and a touchdown, one could only wonder the production he could have had against a weaker defense. On Thursday, he gets this chance against a defense that got torched for 275 yards and three touchdowns in the air last week. I would happily start Burrow in a two-QB league, as the matchup should give him a top-16 finish on the week. 

Baker Mayfield

A 38-6 Week 1 loss was not what fantasy players or Browns fans were hoping to see from a potential bounce-back year in Cleveland. Much like Burrow, some of the performance for Mayfield can be excused since Baltimore has one of the best defenses in the league. However, Mayfield did not show the confidence we have seen in the past. After throwing an interception on his first drive of the game, Baker failed to capitalize on some following chances, with his only touchdown to be on a very well designed play to a wide-open David Njoku. Ultimately, the Browns' offense was fueled by their run game with 138 of their 327 yards coming from the ground. Ultimately, this left Mayfield with limited production. Against a substantially worse defense in the Bengals this week, Baker has the opportunity and the weapons to display the bounce-back many of us hoped for. I would happily start Mayfield as a low-end QB1 in a match that should hit the over (spoiler alert).

Wide Receivers

Bengals

Many of the offseason wide receiver questions were answered in Week 1 and none more important than if Green can stay healthy for an entire game. Turns out he can. Not only that, but he was also clearly the top receiving option on his team with a 25% target share. Green finished with five receptions on nine targets for 51 yards, which led the team in all those categories. If Green can keep up his target share this week, he should be able to find himself as a high-end WR3 with potential WR2 upside.

Last week, in a game dominated by the defense, the little offensive production hurt all the pass catchers for the Bengals. The next best receiver was Tyler Boyd, who had 35 yards on four receptions. Although underwhelming, Boyd did display himself as the firm number two target on the team and was utilized as a safety blanket during the last drive of the game. This week, in a game that should have a better script for all offensive weapons, I would not be deterred to start Boyd as a high-end WR3.

As for the other weapons, Mike Thomas and John Ross each finished last week with 17 yards. Of the two, Ross holds the most upside with his elite speed and touchdown ability; however, I would not look to start either in any format this week. 

Browns

In one of the most talented receiving corps in the league, both Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. look to rebound from last week. As expected, Odell was the clear number one option, finishing with a 26% target share. However, this was overshadowed by his lowly three receptions for 22 yards. Ouch. After watching the film, one thing that did strike me was that OBJ had a few very uncharacteristic drops. Probably the most obvious drop was on a key third down, where the ball went right off his mits and concluded the drive. 

Jarvis Landry, however, demonstrated his sure hands, catching five of his six targets for 61 yards. Quarterbacks such as Mayfield lean on receivers like Landry during short-yardage and third downs. Add this to Landry being the clear number two option, and it should leave him with a very safe floor and potential upside if he were to fall in the endzone. In fact, all receivers in this matchup I believe have very similar situations. Both Green and Beckham Jr. showcase the sheer volume and possess the talent to win your week. However, quarterback play leaves them in the high-end WR3 tier. Landry and Boyd being the clear twos on their team should give fantasy owners the floor of a very steady WR3. In a match where touchdowns may be plentiful, finding the pay dirt will determine which of these four receivers finishes highest. I would rank them as Green, Beckham Jr., Landry, and Boyd, and would not consider any other wide receivers on either team.

Running Backs

Bengals

Joe Mixon’s average draft position crept up to be the ninth RB off the board in standard redraft leagues. Nevertheless, Mixon’s 2020 debut was very underwhelming. He finished last week with a mediocre 3.6 yards per carry for 69 yards on the ground. Considering the lopsided matchup of what is the shaky Bengals O-line and the star-studded Chargers D-line, this is not the worst stat line. The good news though comes through his rushing attempts. Mixon finished with 19 rush attempts to Giovani Bernard’s one (which came on the last drive of the game). Mixon did have his first fumble in his last 621 rush attempts; however, the team went right back to giving him the rock. If the Bengals are running the ball, it’s going to be Mixon.

Unfortunately, Bernard does eat into the receiving work of Mixon, finishing with five targets to Mixon’s two. Although I would not start Bernard in any format, he does limit Mixon’s upside. Regardless, I would not be deterred based on last week’s performance. Off sheer volume, Mixon should finish with the floor of an RB2 and the ceiling of an RB1. I would start him in all formats. 

Browns

To me, the biggest surprise of the week was the Browns’ running back split. After Kareem Hunt signed a two-year extension last week, Nick Chubb owners were already uneasy. Add the fact that Hunt (13) had more rushing attempts than Chubb (10), and it might be time to sound the warning bells. Chubb is one of the best pure rushers in the NFL; however, so is Hunt. Hunt’s rushing yards title in 2017 is not to be forgotten. Both backs are elite and there was the narrative last week that the team may have punished Chubb by benching him after his fumble. Chubb should be the lead back in this offense; however, Hunt’s threat to Chubb’s fantasy value was very apparent last week. Not only did Hunt outrush Chubb, but Hunt also finished the week with six targets to Chubb’s one along with getting the first goal-line carry of the game for the Browns. Yikes.

This game script should be favorable for both backs, especially Chubb. The Browns are six-point favorites going into Thursday, meaning that they could get ahead early and let Chubb drain the clock. Both backs should be started in all formats; however, I would lean on Hunt over Chubb due to his overall involvement. Thursday night’s usage should definitely be under the microscope for all Hunt and Chubb owners. Was Week 1 a fluke? I’m leaning no, but we’ll find out soon.

Tight Ends

Bengals

The Bengals haven’t had a fantasy-relevant tight end since Tyler Eifert’s 13-touchdown 2015 season. In Week 1, there was hope that C.J. Uzomah might be fantasy-relevant as he was second on the team in receiving yards. Only behind A.J. Green, Uzomah caught four of his five targets for 45 yards. This does not give me the confidence to play him this week; however, if he has another productive week, I would be very interested, as he may be a sneaky low-end TE1 in 12+ team leagues. 

Browns

Almost as surprising as the Browns' running back usage was their tight end usage. Somehow, after being left for dead by many fantasy owners, David Njoku came up with one of the best tight end performances of the week so far. Finishing the week as the team’s second-leading receiver, Njoku caught all three of his targets for 50 yards and a touchdown.

Unfortunately, Njoku was put on the IR for a Medial Cruciate Ligament (MCL) sprain and will be out for at least three weeks. Austin Hooper, on the other hand, caught both his targets for 15 yards. Neither of these stat lines gives me much confidence (if any) in their fantasy relevance for the rest of the season. With Njoku out for the next bit, maybe we’ll see Hooper take on a larger role. However, if Njoku’s involvement continues when he is back, there is a chance this becomes a Zach Ertz - Dallas Goedert split, only on a team that isn’t known to use tight ends. Therefore, if you are in a bind, you could play Hooper and hope that without Njoku he gets a larger role. However, I would rather sit him and wait to see the targets increase before rolling him out in my fantasy roster.

Last week, neither of my picks were correct as the Chiefs covered the spread and hit the under. I blame the latter on Bill O’Brien since if he didn’t go for two, the over would have hit. However, I’m looking to rebound in a game that has a lot more clarity than the Week 1 matchup. I think both these teams looked promising last week, as well as both defenses looking as bad as expected. With poor defenses and the amount of top tier talent on each side of the ball, we should be in for another barn burner.

The forecast is showing a 100% chance of fantasy point showers on Thursday night. As much as I think Burrow is going to be a top tier QB in this league, it is hard to bet on a rookie going against a team who has been waiting for a matchup like this to kickstart their bounce-back. I think Cleveland takes the win, however, the Bengals showed enough offensive power to stay in a game. So without further ado, here are my Week 2 Thursday Night football picks.

Bengals +6 (0-1)

Over 43.5 ? (0-1)

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