Baker Mayfield 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

July 4, 2023

Craig Rondinone takes a deep dive into Baker Mayfield’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023.

QB Baker Mayfield has not done himself, his NFL teams, or his fantasy football managers any favors over the past couple of years.

Mayfield is now on his fourth team in three seasons. His fantasy prospects have significantly diminished since he entered the league as the No. 1 overall pick out of Oklahoma in 2018. He has gone from being a franchise quarterback to a borderline starter, and it seems he might be better suited for the role of a veteran backup.

Mayfield has never been a dominant force in fantasy. Now that he is a member of the rebuilding Tampa Bay Buccaneers, his fantasy value might be mediocre at best. This is only if he wins the starting quarterback job during the preseason. So what can fantasy football managers expect out of Mayfield in 2023? Is he worth taking a chance on, or should he only be considered in NFC South fantasy leagues? Let's take a closer look!

Baker Mayfield’s Past and Present

Mayfield has never thrown for 4,000 yards or 30 touchdowns in a single season during his six-year NFL career. In 2018 and 2020, he performed as a solid QB2 who could occasionally be started as a QB1 depending on matchups and bye weeks. However, considering he was drafted first overall, his performance has been underwhelming.

This was particularly true last season during his stints with the Carolina Panthers and Los Angeles Rams. During his brief time with the Rams last year, Mayfield didn't have much to work with. His best pass-catcher was tight end Tyler Higbee since Cooper Kupp was out for the season. He was also surrounded by below-average players in Carolina. You should take that season with a grain of salt.

When Mayfield served as the cornerstone of the Cleveland Browns, he played his best football and was a solid fantasy contributor. He wasn't a player around whom a fantasy team could be built, but he had a defined role.

He could be relied upon for around 250 passing yards and two to three touchdowns when the matchup was favorable. If Mayfield becomes the starting QB in Tampa Bay, he has a better chance of posting numbers similar to his time in Cleveland thanks to the receiving group he will be inheriting.

Baker Mayfield’s Supporting Cast In Tampa Bay

One advantage Mayfield has is that Tampa Bay still possesses some offensive weapons. The team hasn't undergone a complete rebuild where every skilled player making a significant salary has been traded or released. Mike Evans, the No. 1 wide receiver, is coming off his ninth consecutive 1,000-yard season. While he may not be as explosive as earlier in his career, he still has a knack for finding the end zone.

Chris Godwin, the No. 2 WR, has also surpassed the 1,000-yard mark three times in the last four seasons. Godwin will be an excellent possession receiver for Mayfield. If slot receiver Russell Gage can replicate his performance with the Atlanta Falcons in 2020 and 2021, it will provide Mayfield with another above-average pair of hands to throw to.

However, Mayfield’s tight ends are not as strong as his receivers. Second-year player Cade Otton appears serviceable, but there isn't much depth behind him, especially since Cameron Brate is no longer with the team. The running back unit may also be below average, with Leonard Fournette no longer in the picture and Rachaad White expected to handle the bulk of the backfield touches.

It's important to remember that Tampa Bay’s offensive line was the weakest link of their offense last year. They struggled with run blocking, resulting in the Buccaneers ranking last in both yards per game (76.9) and yards per carry (3.4). While Mayfield can move in the pocket, his smaller stature and lack of exceptional speed may hinder him unless the Bucs' offensive line can drastically improve from their lackluster performance in 2022.

Tampa Bay’s Quarterback Competition

Don't forget that Mayfield still needs to win the starting QB spot to see playing time. Kyle Trask, the Buccaneers' second-round pick in 2021, is younger and more familiar with the team's receiving corps than Mayfield. However, one advantage for Mayfield is that Tampa Bay has a new offensive coordinator in Dave Canales. This means Trask doesn't have the advantage of being more familiar with the playbook, as it's completely new for everyone.

Mayfield holds the edge in experience and is the safer choice due to his track record. However, at this point, the competition between him and Trask is as close as ever. If Mayfield loses the battle, his fantasy value would only be as a late-round sleeper. If he wins the job, his fantasy value would be limited to a QB2 or QB3 who might lose his gig if he goes through a slump.

When considering drafting Mayfield for your fantasy team, a lot will depend on whether the Buccaneers' QB battle has been resolved before your draft date. If Mayfield and Trask are still sharing snaps during the preseason due to an early draft date or because Tampa Bay is taking its time in making a decision, then selecting Mayfield would be a gamble even someone like Phil Ivey might avoid.

Final Thoughts

Fantasy managers should not draft Mayfield in the early rounds, as the risk is too high. There is no guarantee he will even be the starter when the season begins. Even if Mayfield does win the job and starts in Week 1, he might not keep the job throughout the season. Additionally, the talent level of the Buccaneers has changed since their Super Bowl victory in 2021.

In the best-case scenario, Mayfield starts 14 to 17 games and throws for 4,000 passing yards with 25 touchdowns. However, a lot of things have to go right for that to happen.

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