New England Patriots: Should We Avoid Them All In Fantasy?

June 19, 2020

Dom Petrillo decides whether the New England Patriots are a team to avoid in 2020 fantasy football leagues based on the departure of Tom Brady and a weak WR corps.

Yes. That's the short answer but, of course, it is not so simple. Here, we will look at some players you may actually want to consider in fantasy drafts.

It is tough to think of the New England Patriots as a fantasy wasteland. They have been so good for so long. Their dynasty may (finally) be coming to an end. In a league filled with high-flying offenses like Kansas City and Dallas, the Patriot Way of football is lagging behind.

There is still a player or two who may provide some fantasy value though. Depending on where you can get them in your draft. Of course, this can be said for any player you draft but with a new quarterback taking the helm in Jarrett Stidham, it has never been truer for Patriots players.

The Safe Bet

There is only one player on the Patriots to have full confidence in. This is obviously Julian Edelman, who will be the number one option for Jarrett Stidham just as he was for Tom Brady over the better part of the last decade. Edelman will never wow you with eye-popping yardage and TD numbers. But even in a down season for New England in 2019, he managed to catch 100 balls and was a WR 13 finish for fantasy. Not a bad year, especially when you consider he was not drafted as a top 13 WR. He instead goes as a value in the fourth and even fifth round of drafts. Not only is he a great player, better yet, he comes at a great value also.

Stidham comes into the season very inexperienced. As with any young signal-caller, he will need a safety blanket to rely on. Edelman will provide that blanket. There is no Rob Gronkowski coming back into the fold. He is now in Florida with his quarterback.

For the first time since landing Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski in the same draft in 2010, New England drafted two tight ends in a draft. This time around, they took Devin Asiasi from UCLA and Dalton Keene from Virginia Tech, both in the third round. This could help them in the future for sure. As for 2020, it is far less likely. Even the best in the game, the likes of Travis Kelce, George Kittle and Zach Ertz took time to adapt to the league. Add to this a first-time starting QB and it could be even more difficult. This means the veteran Edelman will be relied upon for a larger majority of the pass-catching threat.

There are very few Patriots to be encouraged about in 2020. In fact, Edelman is the only one. But he is the constant in the offense. He will continue to produce. And he will continue to go under drafted. So, snatch him up without hesitation.

If the Value is Right

After a 2019 playoff run which culminated in scoring the only TD against the Rams in the Super Bowl, Sony Michel was the belle of the ball. This led to him being drafted as the number 20 overall RB in 2019 as the first pick of the fourth round. This was ahead of players like Derrick Henry, Phillip Lindsay and Miles Sanders. All of them finished higher in the final ranks on the season. Coming into 2020, Michel will again continue to be over-drafted by some. The feeling he is set to return to his late-season 2018 form will cause people to take a shot on him yet again.

With first-year starter Jarrett Stidham coming in for the departed Tom Brady, this is not a good bet. Not only is Michel a limited pass catcher with only 15 receptions on 18 targets in 2019. He is also not the full-time runner you want from an RB who is one dimensional. A player like Derrick Henry, a similar threat in the passing game, is the bell cow back when it comes to rushes. His 303 rushes in 2019 propelled him to a number three fantasy finish despite only having 18 receptions from the position.

Michel, on the other hand, finished as the RB 28 and only averaged9.2 fantasy points per game. This is a full 10.6 points less than Henry accomplished. This was due in large part to his only having 247 rushes. While this is not the 132 carries which Austin Ekeler was limited to, it is also not the 300 or more seen by true bell cows like Henry or Ezekiel Elliott. With his limitations in the pass game combined with his less than full-time usage in the run game, Michel is a far better selection in the sixth or seventh round of fantasy drafts. He is the perfect third RB or flex play and not so much the RB two he has been drafted as in the past two seasons.

James White is a different story from his teammate Sony Michel. Where Michel will get a majority of the rush work, James White will be the beneficiary of the new quarterback. It has been said and is well known that receptions from a running back are more important than rushes. When you have the receiving numbers of a player like White, this certainly holds up.

Although he finished 2019 with only 67 rushes for the team, James White was still the RB 22 on the season. This is six spots higher than teammate Sony Michel. This is due in large part to the 72 receptions he provided to go along with those limited rushes. Although number two on the roster, White is clearly number one when it comes to the running back to own in New England.

Not only does he have a great chance to finish higher in fantasy ranks, he also is taken later in drafts than Michel is. With Michel going in the early fourth round and James white lasting until the sixth round, the value for James White far outweighs the value of Michel. In 2019, this would have been the difference of getting Chris Godwin and James White, or Sony Michel and Dede Westbrook or A.J. Green.

White never gets the credit he deserves. He is constantly underrated and underappreciated. Both by fantasy players and Super Bowl MVP voters alike. It is time we realized just how good of a player he is. It was only in 2018, the same year Michel was getting all the love, that James White finished as the RB 11 for fantasy.

Waiver Wire Shot

One season behind Tom Brady does not mean Jarrett Stidham is going to be good. For every Jimmy Garoppolo there is a Ryan Mallet. Not to mention he had a total of -1.6 fantasy points in the game time he did get in 2019.

Worse yet, his weapons are not great. We have already spoken about the three main pieces he will be counting on. Edelman, Michel and White will be a majority of the offense. There are a few other players like Phillip Dorsett and Rex Burkhead likely to provide some presence. But not enough to make a significant difference. What the Patriots lack in offense could be balanced out by their defense. This is a defensive unit with returning Defensive Player of the Year Stephon Gilmore and re-signed Patrick Chung. The loss of Jamie Collins to Detroit will hurt much less this time than it did when he went to Cleveland. With both McCourty brothers also back in the fold, the secondary will be solid, thus allowing the front seven to again put pressure on opposing offenses in 2020.

Teams that have held opponents under an average of 22 pts/gm in each of the last 6 seasons:

New England Patriots
Minnesota Vikings

[end list]

— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) May 31, 2020

The number one defense from a season ago will need to be nearly as good for the Patriots to have any chance to repeat as division winners again. Their annual cupcake schedule of years past takes a notch up as they come into this year with a top-five strength of schedule difficulty. This means, even if the defense is good, the offense behind Stidham will need to score some points.

Before bolting Baylor, Stidham was in consideration for being amongst the top QB prospects in last seasons draft. After his transfer to a bad offense at Auburn, he dropped like so many of his passes were in college. Ending up in the fourth round as pick 133.

The Patriots seem to have good results taking a quarterback late in drafts. I am not sure if anyone has heard, Tom Brady was actually taken at pick 199. The key for the confidence in Stidham is the trust placed in him by Bill Belichick. The team had multiple chances to bring in competition. Both in the draft and by picking up any number of free agents. From Cam Newton and Jameis Winston to Andy Dalton, New England choose time and time again to stay with Jarrett Stidham.

Offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels is a veteran of the Belichick coaching staff. Other than a disastrous short stint as head coach in Denver, they have been together for the better part of two decades. Both of them know what to do and what not to do within the limitations of their team. The main beneficiary of this will be Stidham. They will draw up plays to best use his skillset. They have done so with Tom Brady as well as Matt Cassel when Brady was injured.

If Edelman remains healthy and the running back duo of Sony Michel and James White remain productive, Jarrett Stidham could just be one of those waiver wires adds who wins you a league.

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