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Tom Bellucco breaks down how the Atlantic 10 Conference Tournament can affect the upcoming NCAA Tournament.
We have less than a week before Selection Sunday, so that means that all of the major conference tournaments will be distracting us from our jobs and our families before the real March Madness begins. The Atlantic 10 tournament is no different, as play will open up Wednesday evening at Capital One Arena in the nation's capital.
The A10 may not have as much fire power as years past, but that doesn't mean we can't preview what should be some amazing basketball, especially as the weekend rolls on. The Rhode Island Rams, St. Bonaventure Bonnies, and Davidson Wildcats are the only teams who still have at-large bid aspirations, and including Davidson is a pretty big stretch. However, the great thing about gritty A10 basketball is that anyone can win on any night, evidenced by the fact that eight different teams have won an A10 tournament in the last nine years. You better believe that every seed is convinced they can earn that coveted automatic bid, and that makes for some entertaining basketball.
In this article I'll break down the three best teams in the conference and how they can still make waves in the NCAA Tournament. I'll also touch on a few A10 cinderella teams that could potentially surprise the top dogs come Sunday.
Editor's Note: Over the next few days, be sure to check out the rest of our NCAA tournament columns and advice. Tournament winners/picks, sleepers, busts and breakdowns of each region will be released shortly.
Rhode Island Rams (23-6, 15-3 in A10)
Most A10 followers figured the Rhode Island Rams would be good this season, but not many predicted this. Rhody lost three conference games to Nevada, Virginia, and Alabama before rattling off 16 wins in a row, 13 of them against conference opponents. They were ranked as high as 16th in mid-February before St. Bonaventure upset them in the Reilly Center. Following that loss, the Rams limped to the finish line, barely beating LaSalle and losing their last two games to St. Joseph's and Davidson.
Senior guard play is the name of the game for the top two A10 seeds, and Rhode Island relies heavily on their duo of Jared Terrell and E.C. Matthews. Some may chalk up their last-season struggles to the fact that they locked up the first seed early, but there are some serious concerns here for the now 25th ranked team in the nation. The Rams currently hold the eighth seed in Joe Lunardi's projections, and they need wins on Friday and Saturday if they want to hold that position. When they're right, this is a dangerous, well-balanced machine. However, they looked extremely vulnerable the past few weeks, which could make the weekend in DC extra interesting.
Let's get this out of the way now: I graduated from Bonas in 2015 and stayed an extra two years to get my Master's degree. Brown and white runs in my blood. I'll try to remain unbias here.
The St. Bonaventure Bonnies came into the 2017-2018 season with a little extra buzz, as some national sources were projecting them to be better than Syracuse, making them the best college basketball team in the state of New York. Syracuse was extremely offended, but the Bonnies were for real. After scaring the Bona-faithful with an opening night loss at home to Niagra (in fairness they were missing their best player) they reeled off a 10-2 record in non-conference play, including impressive wins on a neutral court against Maryland and on the road against Buffalo and Syracuse (Ha!!). Their only other non-conference loss was to TCU on a neutral court. Then, things went downhill. SBU started out conference play going 2-4, and there was fear in the air. In response, they refused to lose another game the rest of the year, rattling off 12 conference wins in a row including redemption games against the Rams and the Wildcats.
Multiple ESPN and CBS announcers have called St. Bonaventure's senior guard tandem one of the best (if not THE best) back courts in the country. Jaylen Adams averages 20.5 ppg (47.7% from 3pt) while Matt Mobley is close behind with 18.2 ppg (37.1% from 3pt). They have been able to pick each other up all season, trading big scoring performances. Meanwhile, junior forward Courtney Stockard has stepped up as a dangerous third scoring option and presence on the boards. The Bonnies continue to climb up Lunardi's projections, now sitting with a possible 10 seed and ranked just outside the top 25 in the country. Barring a one-game stint in the A10 tournament (knock on wood) St. Bonaventure will be dancing with an at-large bid come next week. They'll potentially find themselves in multiple rubber matches against Davidson (Saturday's semi-finals) and Rhode Island (Sunday's final) before the selection show begins.
While the three-point shooting ability from guards allows for unlimited upside and the ability to win any game, it also can provide a steep floor if both players go cold from the field. The security blanket of Stockard has helped a little, but the Bonnies still run the risk of falling flat on any given night. On the other hand, it's completely possible for Adams and Mobley to combine for 70 points without breaking a sweat, so anything seems possible for this mid-major squad. Regardless, I'm going to have a blast watching this team's final run, and you should too.
Davidson Wildcats (18-11, 13-5 in A10)
The Wildcats lost a few key seniors last season, which led to a slow start to the year, but they were able to rally and transform around their star forward Peyton Aldridge a few young guards. Davidson is now a force to be reckoned with, and proved in last few weeks that they belong in the NCAA tournament conversation with the other two A10 representatives. They went just 5-6 in non-conference play, failing to take advantage of prime resume-building matchups against teams like Nevada, Appalachian State, North Carolina, and Virginia. However, Steph Curry's old squad won five conference games in a row to turn their season around. After a loss to Rhode Island on the road in early February, Davidson went 5-1 to end the year, including a triple overtime loss to the Bonnies and a big redemption win against the Rams on the last day of the regular season.
Along with Aldridge's 21.3 ppg, 7.8 rpg, and 35.8% 3pt shooting, freshman guard Kellan Grady (17.9 ppg) and sophomore guard Jon Axel Gudmundsson (13.4 ppg) have grown exponentially as the season has worn on. Aldridge and Grady combined for 84 points in their loss to SBU, and it felt like they couldn't miss from the field or the charity stripe. Because of their rough non-conference schedule, a lack of signature wins, and a laundry list of inexcusable losses, the Wildcats are worlds away from an at-large bid. However, I'm willing to put them into the conversation solely based on the growth of their guards and the fact that they can put up points in buckets. It would not surprise me at all if Davidson wins the automatic bid and spoils a top seed in the NCAA tourney. In fact, I'm hoping for the sake of the conference that three A10 teams get invited to the dance.
The Rest of the Field
The most likely outcome is that one of the three teams mentioned above wins the A10 tournament crown. However, there's still a chance that an outsider comes to play this weekend. St. Joes seems like the most likely candidate to challenge Rhode Island on Saturday, as they will also get a double-bye and just anhilated the Rams last week on Rhode Island's senior night. Another senior tandem in Shavar Newkirk and James Demery certainly have the talent to do it, but something tells me Rhody would bring a little extra revenge to that game.
No one else stands out as a team that should be able to outscore or outlast the four aforementioned teams, especially because they'll be tasked with playing an extra game. However, VCU, Dayton, and St. Louis have all had their moments this season (and have been top dogs in the conference in reecnt years), ultimately failing to put everything together in 2018. If they can catch one of top four seeds on a cold shooting night, they could build enough momentum to make things interesting. If I had to choose one cinderella outside of the top four, it would probably be the balanced attack of St. Louis over the other two.
