Atlanta Falcons: 2014 Fantasy Football Analysis & Team Outlook

It’s no secret that the Atlanta Falcons were one of the most disappointing teams in all of football last season. They had an unusually poor win / loss for the Mike Smith/Matt Ryan era, emerging victorious just four times. Most of Atlanta’s woes, though, weren't due to lack of performance, but rather to the consistency with which players fell victim to injury. Julio Jones, Roddy White, Steven Jackson and Matt Ryan’s offensive line all suffered from injuries at one point or another, some more severe than others. An injury-plagued season like that might well be considered anomalous, and I believe that is precisely the case for Atlanta. It’s probably best to just throw out all the stats from last year’s team since the offense was so banged up. All the key fantasy players should bounce back and could actually be steals given their current rankings.

Offseason Changes

Offseason Acquisitions – WR Devin Hester

No Longer on the Roster – TE Tony Gonzalez

Atlanta Falcons Quarterback

Although Matt Ryan wasn’t spectacular last season, he had pretty much been as safe as they come in fantasy. It is extremely difficult for any quarterback to overcome losing his most talented receiver, let alone having to deal with a multitude of injures scattered throughout the offense. Losing Julio Jones and having to deal with a hobbled Roddy White, as well as the lack of a running game and a leaky line, provide the foundation for Ryan’s 2013 struggles.

Luckily for Ryan, all the players involved have had a lengthy offseason to nurse their wounds, which should result in a major bounce back. Ryan has consistently been ranked outside the top ten at quarterback heading into this season, and I fear many will regret that decision. Both Russell Wilson and Colin Kaepernick are in run-heavy offenses that don’t exactly favor breakout fantasy years. Tom Brady’s Patriots were not the high-octane offensive machine to which we'd grown accustomed last year. Nick Foles had an unbelievable run as the starter in Philadelphia, but it’s risky to invest in a guy who has only been a starter for one season.

Matt Ryan is by far the safest late-round quarterback around. He could very well be this year’s Philip Rivers, in that most people forgot or chose to ignore Rivers after his struggles mounted, but he bounced back tremendously. You can get Ryan at a bargain, and with his talent, he has the greatest chance of being a top five QB out of anyone currently ranked outside the top ten.

Atlanta Falcons Wide Receivers

The organization's greatest concern going in to 2014 is the health of Julio Jones. He is without question their most talented offensive weapon, and losing him to a foot fracture devastated the offense last year. Julio actually has a history of foot problems, so it is fairly concerning to consider that this is the same foot he had problems with in 2011.

That said, the guy is unbelievably talented. Talent like that doesn’t just disappear after missing one season. Currently ranked just outside the top five at wide receiver, Julio should be targeted in the late-second/early-third round. As the season approaches, more information will become available with regard to his healing foot, but as long as the reports are positive, he should be all set to return to form. It’s possible that your leaguemates back off of Julio Jones out of fear of his previous injury, allowing him to slide further in your draft. There is some risk attached to taking him, but when it comes down to it, the man is simply too talented to pass up.

As for Julio’s tag-team partner, Roddy White suffered from ankle and hamstring injuries throughout the 2013 season. Roddy managed to play through most of his ailments, but he did miss two games, marking the first time in his entire nine-year career that Roddy White had missed a game. That’s an unbelievable feat for a player as physical as Roddy, so it should be reassuring to know it’s rare for him to get injured. At the moment, Roddy is extremely undervalued, and his stock will likely rise as we get closer to the start of the season. There are, of course, concerns about his age, but given the nature of the Falcons (typically) high-powered offense, he will almost certainly bounce back. It’s conceivable Roddy will be the biggest steal among all wide receivers this year.

Moving to the other receivers on the team, the Falcons did add a fresh face in Devin Hester. Hester has never really been a usable wide receiver in standard leagues, as he has historically been a return expert. It’s possible that the Falcons decide to use Hester more as a receiver than he was in Chicago, but it’s not something I would look into just yet. He’s the type of guy you want to see actually do it first before you think about adding him. Yes, Harry Douglas is still on this team as well, but he’s basically a Julio/Roddy handcuff at this point. If you’re really worried about either wideout's inability to bounce back this season, stash Douglas in the event one of them gets re-injured.

Atlanta Falcons Running Backs

In case you haven’t noticed, the common theme among fantasy contributors on the Atlanta Falcons is that they're all potential steals. Running back Steven Jackson just so happens to fit that bill, as well. Jackson was also hurt toward the beginning of the season, but managed to recover and turned it on late in the year, finding the endzone six times in his last seven games.

Steven Jackson is the perfect candidate to be the second running back on a team that goes for a wide receiver or quarterback early. It’s not uncommon for draftees to panic once they see running backs fly off the board early. This leads to overdrafting backs just for the sake of having a second one, passing on the top-tier receivers. The wiser thing to do would be to load up on all those great receivers and wait until the time is right to grab a guy like Jackson. He’s ranked fairly low, with most touts having him outside the top 20. If there’s any back out there with something to prove given his age and disappointing 2013 campaign, it’s Jackson. He’s sort of like a poor man’s Frank Gore, in that he has something left in the tank but has to prove it before we can buy in. Expect Jackson to become a trendy sleeper as the new season approaches.

Now normally, Jackson would be a prime candidate for handcuffing. But the problem is that there’s no real number two guy at the moment. Sure, Jacquizz Rodgers has been serving as the backup in Atlanta for years, but we kind of already know what we’re getting out of him (not much). Jacquizz isn’t really worth a roster spot at this point, given his inability to become relevant in Jackson’s absence last year. If the breakout were coming, it would have happened by now.

Atlanta Falcons Rookies & Tight Ends

Future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez has retired from the NFL, leaving the door open for someone new to step up into the position for the Falcons. The most likely candidate is second-year player Levine Toilolo, who possesses an enormous 6'8'' frame. If Toilolo can prove himself even somewhat talented, he could be a major redzone threat for Atlanta.

It’s difficult to project Tollolo having Gonzalez’s numbers right away, but he could still be useful for a bye week fill-in. The most interesting aspect of this transition will be figuring out where Gonzalez’s 121 targets end up. I doubt Tollolo sees that many, but it could mean more opportunities for guys like Harry Douglas and Devin Hester. Tollolo is a name to keep an eye on, as is any other tight end the Falcons trot out this season.

Running back Devonta Freeman out of Florida State is an intriguing option, if for no other reason than as the potential handcuff to Steven Jackson. As mentioned previously, it’s unclear who the clear-cut number two back is right now, but it could very well be Freeman. Even if there is no clarity between now and the time of your draft, if Jackson ends up in your starting lineup, it would be wiser to take Freeman over Jacquizz as your handcuff, given Freeman's upside as a rookie. It’s no sure thing that he’ll be any good, but you never know. For all we know, Steven Jackson may regress some more, leaving room for a Doug Martin-esque emergence from Freeman.

Aside from Freeman, the Falcons went fairly defense-heavy in their draft. The only other noteworthy addition was number six overall pick Jake Matthews out of Texas A&M, whose job will be protecting Matt Ryan on the offensive line. That should serve as a positive for Ryan due to the shaky O-line play from last season.

In Summary

I expect these Falcons to make every list of “bounce back players” this season. The offense has traditionally been fantasy-friendly, so you can pretty much disregard all of last year’s numbers. There’s just no way the team can be that bad again if everyone is healthy. Matt Ryan, Roddy White and Steven Jackson could all end up as draft-day steals, and a player the caliber of Julio Jones will almost certainly live up to the hype. Overall, the Falcons are a team with a lot of fantasy appeal and players that should be targeted by fantasy owners everywhere.