Browns Ready to Break Out?

October 6, 2019

The Cleveland Browns made headlines over the offseason with the moves they made and find themselves top of the AFC North- but Baker Mayfield has started 2019 slow as have the Browns. Richard King takes a look at the fantasy pieces for Cleveland at QB, RB, and WR to assess their fantasy football outlook for the season.

The Cleveland Browns are currently leading the AFC North division, but that doesn't mean everything is going well for the team, as fantasy owners will be able to tell you. The offseason was full of hype for the Browns, especially after the team traded for Odell Beckham Jr.

Certainly, the team is performing a lot better than in previous seasons - that's the reason they are top of the division. They've also scored some impressive victories on the road, none more so than last week's win over divisional rival Baltimore. However, the team has struggled to perform in front of their own fans and is yet to beat an opponent at home.

The opening game against the Tennessee Titans highlighted that the season might not be smooth sailing as it seemed in the offseason, but what does that mean for the fantasy value of their players?

Quarterback Play

Baker Mayfield is a talented quarterback but that doesn't always translate to fantasy value. Mayfield took the reigns of the offense in the early part of last season, replacing Tyrod Taylor in Week 3 last season. In that game he threw for 201 yards, leading the team to a comeback victory over the New York Jets, kick-starting Baker Mania. Mayfield finished the season with a number of plaudits, surpassing the rookie touchdown passing marks of both Peyton Manning and Russell Wilson. The signal-caller may have lost out on the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, but he had set the bar high and ended the seemingly endless search the Browns had for a franchise quarterback.

Mayfield this season doesn't look like the same player. After four weeks, he has thrown 1,147 yards, ranking seventh in the league but still feels like a disappointment. The difference is that he has only thrown four touchdowns this season, which is far below his rookie pace and below the expectations of the offense in general.

Looking at above Next Gen Stats charts (both from matchups against the New York Jets) shows a change in how Mayfield is throwing the ball; there are far more throws downfield and dump-offs this season compared to his rookie year. The downfield targets are the main driver for his increased yards total, but equally converting those downfield throws has been the concern. This season all of Mayfield's touchdowns have been thrown for 10 yards or less from the line of scrimmage. Last season 13 of his 24 touchdowns were beyond that mark, but the number of attempts downfield has increased. Clearly, with Mayfield's ability that should return to the mean his touchdown number rises.

Verdict: Dogging it. The Browns are entrusting Mayfield far more this season, but until the downfield attempts are converted into touchdowns there are question marks over his fantasy value at a competitive position.

Emergence Of Chubb

Part of the reason for the reduction of passing touchdowns for Mayfield has been the emergence of running back Nick Chubb. Chubb is a big-bodied back who can turn on the jets if he breaks a tackle or two. According to NFL Next Gen Stats, Chubb was the second-fastest player this season on his 88-yard rushing touchdown- clearly no slouch! A running back breaking free of defenders and going deep downfield is one of the purest sights in football, and looking at Chubb's Next-Gen charts, it's something he has managed to do throughout his career.

Chubb may have started out his rookie season as a backup to Carlos Hyde, but once he was given the opportunity he took it with both hands with his running style and big-play ability. That led to the team choosing to move Hyde on mid-season, and entrusting Chubb to lead the backfield. This offseason the team picked up Kareem Hunt, leading to doubts that Chubb would be given the reigns for the season.

However, this season Chubb has been given all of the carries he could have wanted, second in the league behind only Christian McCaffrey. Chubb has taken his 78 carries for 398 yards and four touchdowns (although three of those came in last week's game). Currently, the Browns have entrusted Chubb to lead their backfield, and at this rate, it looks like Hunt won't be walking into a big role once he is able to be selected. The Browns are within touching distance more often in games than they were last year, allowing the Browns to utilize Chubb's skill set far more

Verdict: Dawg Pound! Chubb is currently the only show in town and looks to play Hunt into a backup role with each effective performance. The improvements that the team made on their roster has enabled them to be in a position to increase the carries that can be afforded to their running backs.

Distraction Of Beckham

Odell Beckham is one of the most talented wide receivers to have entered the league, but he does bring a lot of attention with his off-field antics. Beckham's temper was on full show during his time in New York, and we saw another glimpse of that against the Baltimore Ravens with a clash with Marlon Humphrey. What makes that bearable for teams though is the production on the field. However, Beckham seems to be struggling to have the same impact he did during his time with the Giants. Expectations were sky-high for Beckham once he was traded to the Browns, with Mayfield a clear quarterback upgrade on Eli Manning.

Opposition defenses are clearly scheming to limit his opportunity to do something with the ball in his hands. Something that is easily seen in his Next-Gen charts:

With the exception of his lone touchdown in Week 2, Beckham has been unable to break any long runs and has been immediately shut down upon catching the ball. However, so far this season Beckham has had tough cornerback matchups with the exception of that matchup against the New York Jets. Beckham is still running routes the same way as he always has, he is just attracting more attention than before, limiting his upside.

Verdict: Dawg Pound! Beckham may be making headlines for the wrong reason, but his talent should hold out and he should bounce back once he faces some easier man matchups. Beckham is still an elite player and his route running ability hasn't diminished.

Improvements On Defense

The Browns added decided to go all in this season and added multiple defensive pieces. The team added Sheldon Richardson in free agency, picked up Olivier Vernon in a trade as well as adding cornerback Greedy Williams in the draft.

Those additions to a unit that already the talents of Myles Garrett and Denzel Ward stacks a lot of talent on defense. While that hasn't truly translated that to the field, the Browns have been able to limit the opportunities that have been given to their opposition (with the exception of the opening matchup against the Tennessee Titans) giving up an average of just 16 points per game.

Verdict: Dawg Pound! The additions in defensive personal have allowed the Browns to keep opposing teams in check and enabled the team to pound the clock with its effective running game.

Conclusion

The Browns have a lot of new additions on their roster, making multiple headlines in the offseason with the moves they made. Those changes will take time to embed within the offensive and defensive schemes.

The team has shown some signs of improvement after a statement victory over the Ravens. But the schedule isn't too kind to the team with some tricky matchups against the San Fransisco 49ers and Seattle Seahawks before their bye week in Week 7.

If you are able to buy-low on any of the offensive pieces (which is unlikely with Chubb) I would consider making a move and awaiting the team to truly get rolling.

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