Are You In Or Out? Kyle Pitts 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook

Rob examines Atlanta Falcons TE Kyle Pitts to discover what went wrong in 2022 and takes a deep dive into Pitts' fantasy football value to determine if you should be in or out for him in 2023.

Kyle Pitts. What an enigma when it comes to fantasy football. You bring up his name in talking circles, and you'll get people who are 100% committed — like how Jack "You jump, I jump," Dawson was to Rose. The others are completely out, like Leonardo DiCaprio and any woman over the age of 25. There are very few in the middle.

However, most people, even those who are out, appreciate his talent on the football field. That part is virtually undeniable. Why are so many vehemently against drafting him this season then?

Well, the Falcons certainly have yet to make things easy. Their offense from 2022 looked like it had jumped out of the DeLorean Time Machine from the 1980s, as it was incredibly run-heavy. Selecting Bijan Robinson eighth overall and committing to either Desmond Ridder or Taylor Heinicke at quarterback doesn’t exactly breed confidence. So what are fantasy managers to do with Pitts? We'll discuss whether you should be in or out on Pitts this season. Remember, with the draft season approaching soon, use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.

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The Kyle Pitts Experience

We're two years into Kyle Pitts' career and even though he recorded over 1,000 yards as a rookie, he has yet to be the tight end fantasy managers were hoping for. 2022 was a lost year with injuries and minimal team passing volume. Pitts' rookie season was thwarted by some horrible touchdown luck that made him nothing but a mediocre tight end. He would ultimately finish as the TE10 in half-PPR scoring leagues.

Despite the decline in fantasy production during his second season, there's a strong argument that Pitts was considerably better in 2022. Unfortunately, none of it translated to fantasy, but that had little to do with the former Gator. In his rookie season, he scored just one touchdown on 110 targets, a terribly bad outlier of a season. This past season, terrible quarterback play forced the Atlanta coaching staff to go with a very old-school, conservative offense.

It hasn't been easy rostering Pitts because while the talent is obvious and the upside is clear, factors outside of his control have held him back from being the dominant fantasy football tight end that in the right situation he could be. Realistically, the situation doesn't even need to be perfect because his immense talent can overcome some negatives, but there's only so much he can do. At some point, for him to reach his ceiling, he needs a better quarterback and a better offensive system.

Why, Oh Why?!

Per the table above, fantasy managers should note several changes between Pitts' first and second seasons. The first is his average depth of target. While you may see that he ranked first among tight ends with at least 50 targets this past season, his 14.1 average depth of target is far too high for consistent fantasy success. These deeper targets are more challenging to complete, creating more weekly volatility.

Not surprisingly, with the increase of his aDot, he racked up an enormous amount of unrealized air yards in 2022. In fact, despite missing seven games, he still managed to lead tight ends in this statistic. That's a testament to how Pitts was deployed and the catastrophically lousy quarterback play he received, which brings us to the second data point.

In 2021, 79.1% of his targets were deemed “catchable” by PlayerProfiler. This number cratered last season with Marcus Mariota at the helm. His 2022 rate of just 59.3% ranked 37th among qualifying tight ends, proving that Pitts' lack of fantasy success in 2022 had little to do with him. Unfortunately, this was just one obstacle he had to deal with.

For some reason, head coach Arthur Smith decreased the number of routes for Pitts last season. In 2021, he ran a route on 80.8% of the team's pass attempts, but this number fell to 73.3% in 2022. Considering Pitts' talent as a pass-catcher, his decreased number of routes didn't make much sense. However, with the reduced route participation and the significant decline in team passing volume, Pitts' opportunity this past season was decimated.

The “1980s” Atlanta Offense

With Mariota’s struggles throwing the football, the Atlanta offense had to adjust and adapt. They had to hide him, and to Arthur Smith’s credit, he implemented a competent offense despite the dreadful quarterback play. This should give fantasy managers optimism.

According to Pro Football Reference, just 70.6% of Mariota's throws were deemed to be on-target. This rate was the second-worst among 33 qualifying quarterbacks, and only Zach Wilson was worse at 67.1%.

It should come as no surprise that Mariota had the third-highest rate of off-target throws, as 22.5% of his throws received this distinction. With that poor accuracy came interceptions, as he finished with the fifth-highest interception rate at 3.0%. This kind of quarterback play did not allow Smith to run a traditional offense, so he didn't. He adapted.

As you can see from the table above, the 2022 Falcons' offense was better than the 2021 version under Arthur Smith. Fantasy managers should be encouraged by this. While the adaptation hurt Pitts in 2022, Smith recognized his team's inadequacy and adjusted to find what would work best for his team. That's an excellent quality for a coach to have!

However, you can see a significant decrease in passing volume from 2021 to 2022. Pass attempts dropped by about nine per game, while passing yards dropped by about 60. While fantasy managers shouldn't expect great quarterback play from Ridder or Heinicke, the hope is that either player helps increase the volume in 2023.

While Ridder made just four starts, it is noteworthy that he averaged 5.7 more attempts per game. And over 17 games, that represents 97 additional targets. That's excellent news for Pitts' 2023 value, although the volume is just one of two problems.

Take Heinicke's pass attempts per game with a grain of salt, as he was with a different club in 2022. However, his previous history indicates that he could increase the team's passing volume if he were named the starter.

How could that be? Because both Ridder and Heinicke were more accurate and careful with the football. Each had a higher on-target and completion percentage while having a lower interception rate. That could provide confidence to the coaching staff to dial up more passing plays.

It is worth noting that Ridder and Heinicke each had a much lower average depth of target than Mariota. As previously mentioned, Pitts' 14.1 aDot in 2022 was much too high for weekly consistency. If Ridder or Heinicke can help decrease that number into the 11–12 yard range, it'll help Pitts' catch rate and ultimately increase his overall yardage.

As we previously noted, there are two issues at play here. One is the aforementioned passing volume, and the other issue is the quarterback play itself. It's hard to know what Ridder could bring to the team in 2023 after being a third-round rookie last season; however, what Mariota put on the field in 2022 is a low bar to cross.

Fantasy managers certainly shouldn't fear worse quarterback play. It may not be any better, but imagining it'll be worse is hard. The likelihood is that Ridder is a slight upgrade from last season, and at the very least, it seems Pitts will have more volume to work with.

What Kyle Pitts Brings

In the table above, fantasy managers can look at Pitts' counting stats from his first two seasons. These are the only ones that matter for fantasy purposes, but many other factors come into play, as we've already discussed. While all his numbers (except air yards per game) decreased, there's a strong argument that Pitts was better in his second year.

While his yards per route run and yards per team pass attempt decreased from 2021 to 2022, it's important to remember the quarterback play he was working with. Specifically, the drastic difference in his catchable target rate between the two seasons as he went from 79.1% in 2021 to 59.3% in 2022. Considering the substantial drop in catchable targets, the statistical differences between 2021 and 2022 appear less drastic. The high marks in 2022 are ultimately more impressive based on what Pitts had to work with.

However, what should have fantasy managers excited about Pitts' 2023 is his jump in target share and target per route run rate. He went from very good to elite. These two numbers will surely pay dividends this upcoming season with the anticipated increase in passing volume. On an efficiency basis, there have been few tight ends as good as Pitts over their first two seasons, and that talent is worth betting on. Especially when the two factors that have held him back reflect so minimally on his own skillset. 

It was horrible touchdown luck in his first year that held him back. Pitts finished with 14 red zone targets in 2021 (tied for 41st among all players), seven targets inside the 10-yard line (36th), and 110 total targets (31st). Despite that, he finished with just one touchdown, tied for 178th! That's just bad luck. If you want to say he's not a scorer, remember Miles Sanders scored zero touchdowns in 2021 and then 11 this past season. Crazy outliers happen, so try not to take too much away from them.

In his second year, Pitts was limited by an incredibly inaccurate quarterback, which forced the head coach to adjust his offense into one of the most run-heavy systems we've seen in recent memory. None of that has stopped Pitts from being incredibly talented. In each season, his efficiency metrics indicate such.

So Are You In or Out?

Pitts is currently being drafted on Underdog as the TE5 with an ADP of 65.1, costing fantasy managers a mid-sixth-round pick. Is Pitts worth that to you? Assuming the Falcons increase their passing volume to the 28.5 attempts per game Ridder and Heinicke were at last season, Pitts could reasonably see between 112 targets (23% target share) and 128 targets (26.5% target share).

Based on his career's 56.8% catch percentage, we could expect between 64 to 73 receptions. Using his career 14.4 yards per reception average would give him between 922 to 1,051 yards. However, Pitts could easily catch more than 56.8% of his passes. He was at 61.8% as a rookie but dropped to 47.5% this past season, primarily due to Mariota's epic inconsistency.

Using that same target range but giving Pitts just a 60% catch rate, we'd have a range of 67 to 77 receptions, increasing his yardage from 965 to 1,109 yards. In conclusion, fantasy managers should be in on Pitts again this season. The talent is immense, as is the upside. For this reason, fantasy managers should once again be in on Kyle Pitts.

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