X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

DJ Moore 2023 Fantasy Football Outlook – Are You In Or Out?

Rob takes a deep dive into DJ Moore’s fantasy football value to determine if you should draft him in 2023. Will the Chicago offense improve enough for Moore to pay off his draft capital?

D.J. Moore’s trade to Chicago has elicited many vastly different opinions on what his fantasy football value is for the 2023 NFL season. There are questions about the team passing volume and if Justin Fields can throw the ball consistently. On the other hand, Fields showed a lot of potential last season — albeit a lot of which came via rushing — and Moore has been one of the better receivers in the NFL.

You can find previous editions of the "Are You In or Out?" series here:

Theoretically, the upside in Chicago should be higher. Of course, we did this same old song and dance when Sam Darnold was traded to Carolina. What should fantasy managers make of DJ Moore’s fantasy value and is he worth the price of admission? Don't forget, as draft season approaches, use the promo code "BOOM" at checkout for a 10% discount on any premium purchase.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

History Tends to Repeat Itself

Let’s just be frank here before we get too far, DJ Moore needs two things to happen for him to pay off at his current WR26 ranking, and 47.9 Underdog ADP — Justin Fields needs to take a step (or two forward) and the Chicago offense needs to drastically increase their passing volume. Just one of them will not be enough.

Let me explain. Chicago averaged 22.1 pass attempts per game in 2022. If that only increases to 25, the Bears will finish with 425 total attempts and if Moore has a 27% target share, that’s just 6.7 targets per game. Last year, that would’ve been 39th respectively among receivers. That just isn’t going to get it done if we expect him to pay off at his current WR26 price, especially if Fields is no more consistent than he was last year.

While it’s easy to say that the Bears will pass more in 2023 — that much is obvious — will the increase be enough? You have to go all the way back to 1990 to find the last time a team passed fewer times per game than the 2022 Chicago Bears!

Year Team Pass Attempts Per Game
2022 Chicago 22.2
2021 Seahawks 29.1
2020 Baltimore 25.9
2019 Tennessee 26.9
2018 Seattle 26.7
2017 Chicago 29.6
2016 Buffalo 29.6
2015 Minnesota 28.1
2014 Seattle 28.1
2013 Seattle 25.7
2012 Seattle 25.9
Average 27.07

In the table above, you’ll find the team with the fewest pass attempts per game in each of the last 11 years. As you can see, even against the previous 10 teams who finished last in pass attempts per game, Chicago still looks like the outlier. The closest team to the 2022 Bears was the 2013 Seahawks, who still threw it 3.5 times more per game. Over 17 games that’s 60 attempts, almost three full games worth of Chicago’s average. The 11-year average is 27.07. Chicago’s 2022 average would need to increase by 21.9% to get to 27.07. Maybe what’s more important than where Chicago’s 2022 club ranks historically is how much these other teams increased their passing the following year.

Years Team
Pass Attempt Per Game % Increase
2021-2022 Seahawks 16.1%
2020-2021 Baltimore 38.6%
2019-2020 Tennessee 11.8%
2018-2019 Seattle 20.2%
2017-2018 Chicago 10.1%
2016-2017 Buffalo 2.7%
2015-2016 Minnesota 30.9%
2014-2015 Seattle 11.3%
2013-2014 Seattle 9.3%
2012-2013 Seattle –0.77%
Average 15.0%

Looking at the table above you can see that nine of the 10 teams increased their pass attempt per game average, while one stayed exactly the same. Only two teams increased their pass attempts by more than 20%. The average was just 15.0%. Using this 15.0% increase for Chicago, we’d expect the Bears’ offense to finish with around 434 pass attempts. This would’ve finished 31st in the NFL last year. The median is 11.5%. Using that as our increase, the Bears would finish with 421 attempts and finish just barely ahead of Atlanta in 31st.

While the 38.6% increase we saw from Baltimore in 2021, we need to remember that J.K. Dobbins and Gus Edwards tore their ACLs and Justice Hill tore his Achilles. Whenever a team loses quite literally their whole backfield, they’re going to pass more, so that season’s increase should be taken with a grain of salt.

Just to get Chicago to 30 pass attempts per game, they’d need a 35% increase on last season’s pass attempts, which would be an enormous outlier compared to what we’ve seen from the past 10 years. It’s easy to say the Bears are going to pass more. That much is a given, but figuring out just exactly what that means is a different discussion altogether. History tends to repeat itself and based on what we’ve seen historically, expecting an increase of more than 20% seems unlikely, but that’s just one requirement.

 

Can We Trust Justin Fields?

The second issue in regards to Moore and his fantasy value is Justin Fields. If you’re a DJ Moore fan, then you’re no stranger to quarterback play tanking his value, like it did most recently in 2022. While he’s been able to overcome that issue in previous years (2019–2021), he had passing volume on his side.

In 2019, Moore finished with 135 targets and Carolina averaged 39.6 pass attempts per game, the second-most in the NFL. Carolina averaged 34.4 attempts per game in 2020, the 22nd-most, and he finished with 118 targets. Then in 2021, they averaged 35.2 attempts per game and he finished with 163 targets. For Chicago to get to 34.4, the lowest pass attempt per game average in three of Moore’s good seasons in Carolina, they’d have to increase their passing volume by 54.9% or 12.2 attempts per game, which is completely unprecedented.

TD % Int %  Comp % On-  Target % YPA QB  Rating  Sk %
 5.3% (6th) 3.4%  (32nd) 60.4% (31st) 71.1% (28th) 7.1 (17th) 85.2 (25th) 14.7% (32nd)

The numbers above are based on a 33 quarterback sample and they certainly do not generate much confidence. However, it should be noted Fields was throwing to the worst group of pass-catchers in the NFL last season in a brand-new offensive scheme. There’s no denying the numbers are bad. There’s also no denying Fields had very little to no help. How each fantasy manager weighs those two facts will be up to them.

According to Football Outsiders, Fields had a DVOA of -34.05%. This was 34th among 34 qualifying QBs. In fact, the next closest QB wasn’t even all that close, -22.5%. Per Football Outsiders, “DVOA or Defense-adjusted Value Over Average, represents value, per play, over an average quarterback in the same game situations.”

Fields was given a 54.4 passing grade via PFF. This ranked 31st out of 34 quarterbacks with at least 250 dropbacks. He also had the third-highest turnover-worth play rate at 4.4% in this sample. So, can we trust Fields as a passer? If anyone says yes, they’re lying. The only two answers are no, based on the stats and film from 2022 or we don’t know yet because the environment last year was so unfavorable, it wouldn’t be fair to judge him off of it.

Last year, the Panthers attempted 26.9 passes per game, 4.7 more than the Bears, and Moore finished with just 118 targets despite an elite, 27.7% target share. An increase to 26.9 attempts per game for Chicago would consist of a 21.1% increase, more than six percentage points higher than the 10-year increase average noted earlier. Even if that happens, will Moore’s results be any different in Chicago than they were last year in Carolina? Not if Fields doesn’t dramatically improve.

Quarterback Comp % TD % Int % YPA On-Target % QB Rating
Team Passing DVOA
J, Fields 58.4% 5.3% 3.4% 7.1 71.1% 85.2 -11.0%
Panther QBs, 2022 60.4% 3.5% 2.8% 7.1 70.2% 80.2 -6.1%

Looking at the table above, there’s very little difference between Fields last season and the array of Panther quarterbacks, which brings us back to the very beginning. We don’t need just one thing to happen — Fields improving or more team passing volume — we need both.

 

What DJ Moore Brings

The fantasy football community has long been pounding the table for Moore to get to play with a real quarterback. Based on what we’ve already covered, the jury is still very much out on that one, but it’s hard to dispute the talent Moore brings to the field. The following chart is courtesy of Reception Perception and you can find his free profile here.

Pretty self-explanatory here — green is good and there is quite a bit of green above. Matt Harmon of Reception Perception wrote in his profile, 

“Moore has hovered between 70 and 71.9% success rate vs. man coverage in each of the last three seasons and has cleared 80% success rate vs. zone in three of the last four. His 72.2% success rate vs. press coverage from 2022 is the best mark of his career… Despite long stretches of poor production, you could argue that 2022 was one of D.J. Moore’s best seasons. He showed consistent separation across the route tree, something he hadn’t always strung together in previous seasons. In addition, teams knew Moore was the only game in town for the Panthers. He was doubled on a whopping 17.5% of his routes (more than double his previous career-high) and still posted some of his best success rate vs. coverage scores.”

Unfortunately, for as good of a player as Moore is, it hasn’t translated to fantasy football success, especially in the past two seasons.

Year Targets Receptions Yards TDs Half-PPR PPG
2022 118 63 888 7 10.4 (WR29)
2021 162 93 1,157 4 11.1 (WR26)
2020 118 66 1,193 4 11.9 (WR22)
2019 135 87 1,175 4 12.5 (WR19)

There’s no denying the talent, but due to poor quarterback play and bad team offenses, we haven’t seen Moore become a true impact player in the fantasy world. Unfortunately, a lot of those same concerns — poor quarterback play and bad team offense — exist in Chicago. You’d have to go back all the way to 2020 to find the last time Moore would’ve provided plus value at his current WR26 price tag, which isn’t to say he should be avoided, just that there may not be as much upside.

While some are quick to look at the Stefon Diggs trade to Buffalo and what it meant for Josh Allen, as well as Tyreek Hill to Miami for Tua Tagovailoa, and A.J. Brown to Philadelphia for Jalen Hurts, the difference here, as noted by Reception Perception is that Moore is not on their level. All of those receivers were elite while Moore is merely just very good. That's not a shot at him at all, but if you're making that comparison and expecting the same results, you're going to get in trouble. Not only is Moore not as good, but the volume these original teams were working with, was much higher than Chicago's.

 

So… Are You In or Out?

The answer to that question likely falls on how optimistic you are about the Chicago offense and Justin Fields. We know who DJ Moore is as a player, but what we don’t know is how much the team passing volume increases and if Fields improves as a passer.

While Moore is undoubtedly very good, there’s also more target competition in Chicago than he’s had to deal with in Carolina. Darnell Mooney, Chase Claypool, and Cole Kmet are significantly better than the secondary pass-catchers that have played behind him in Carolina, which is just one more concern to be cognizant of.

In 2022, the three leading target-earners behind Moore were Terrace Marshall Jr., Christian McCaffrey (only six games), and Shi Smith. In 2021, the three highest target-earning players behind him were Chosen Anderson and two running backs, Ameer Abdullah (11 games) and CMC (seven games). I think we can all appreciate that the threesome in Chicago is significantly better than that lot.

If we give the Bears a 20% increase on their 2022 pass attempts (a very generous projection based on historical trends) they’d finish with around 450 total attempts. If we give Moore a 26% target share, a slight decrease from his 2022 mark of 27.7% due to the increased target competition, which seems fair, he’d finish with 117 targets. He finished as the WR29 last year on 118 targets.

Moore’s price tag isn’t high enough where fantasy managers need to avoid him, but it’s fair to wonder just how much upside there is at his price. If you’re in or out really comes down to how much you think the Bears increase their pass attempts per game and how much you think Fields increases. Moore’s price tag at this time feels like fair market value considering the things that need to go right for him to exceed his cost and how quickly things could unravel if the passing volume stays low or Fields continues to struggle.

He's best valued as a high-end WR3, which is exactly where the market currently has him. If you’re more bullish on the Bears’ increasing their volume and Fields’ improvement as a passer, you could target Moore as a backend WR2. However, anything higher than that and you’re most certainly overpaying and getting into a situation where it’ll be difficult for him to provide surplus value, if at all.

As a reminder, please use promo code "BOOM" at checkout for 10% off any premium purchase.



Download Our Free News & Alerts Mobile App

Like what you see? Download our updated fantasy football app for iPhone and Android with 24x7 player news, injury alerts, rankings, starts/sits & more. All free!

More Fantasy Football Analysis




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Brice Matthews

Joining Astros
MLB

White Sox-Guardians Postponed on Thursday
Brandon Aiyuk

Likely to Begin Season on PUP List, but Not Ruled Out for Week 1
Jameson Williams

Not in the Team's Long-Term Plans?
Tallison Teixeira

Set For His First UFC Main Event
Micah Parsons

Plans to be Present for Start of Training Camp
Derrick Lewis

Set To Headline UFC Nashville
Ikem Ekwonu

Next Up for Extension in Carolina?
Jalen Thompson

Heading into Last Year With Cardinals?
Gabriel Bonfim

Looks For His Third UFC Win
Najee Harris

Suffers Eye Injury in Fireworks Mishap
Stephen Thompson

Returns At UFC Nashville
Steve Garcia

Looks To Extend His Win Streak
Calvin Kattar

In Dire Need Of Victory
Morgan Charrière

Morgan Charriere A Favorite At UFC Nashville
Nate Landwehr

Aims To Bounce Back
MMA

Austen Lane Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Vitor Petrino

Set For His Heavyweight Debut
Tuco Tokkos

Set To Open Up UFC Nashville Main Card
Junior Tafa

Set For Light-Heavyweight Bout
Alex Bregman

Will Return to Red Sox This Weekend
Chris Sale

Braves Won't Consider Trading Chris Sale
Clarke Schmidt

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery on Friday
Nick Nash

Unlikely to Make Falcons Active Roster
Lane Johnson

in No Rush To Retire
Jalen Williams

Signs Contract Extension With Thunder
Blake Corum

has "Gotten His Speed Back"
Jarquez Hunter

Picking Up Rams Offense Quickly
Alijah Martin

Agrees to Two-Way Deal With Raptors
Tristan Vukcevic

Set to Return to Washington
Kirk Cousins

Feels Misled by Falcons
Bijan Robinson

Says Falcons Have "Outlandish Goals" for the Running Game
Luther Burden III

Bears Expect Luther Burden III to be Ready for Training Camp
Cole Kmet

an Unlikely Trade Piece
Tony Pollard

Titans Hope to Balance Rushing Attack With Tony Pollard, Tyjae Spears
Byron Buxton

Sitting Thursday
Quentin Johnston

Not Assured of Starting Role
Cordarrelle Patterson

on the Roster Bubble in Pittsburgh?
Shedeur Sanders

Not Assured of Roster Spot in Cleveland?
Wan'Dale Robinson

Hoping For More Downfield Opportunities
Anfernee Simons

Celtics Are "Actively Trying to Trade" Anfernee Simons
NBA

Alex Ducas Heading to Australia
Dominick Barlow

Inks Two-Way Deal With 76ers
Jordan McLaughlin

Spurs Re-Sign Jordan McLaughlin to One-Year Deal
Dylan Harper

Out Thursday, Expected to Play Saturday
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Homers Twice on Wednesday
Mike Trout

Homers Twice in Win Over Rangers
Jazz Chisholm Jr.

Leads Yankees to Victory
Salvador Perez

Crushes Two Homers in Win
Cleveland Browns

Greg Newsome on the Trade Block?
VJ Edgecombe

Diagnosed with a Sprained Thumb
Zach Tom

An Extension Candidate in Green Bay
Devin Booker

Agrees to Extension with Phoenix
Trevor Williams

to Undergo Season-Ending Elbow Surgery
Byron Buxton

Exits After Hit-by-Pitch, X-Rays Negative
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. Playing on Wednesday
Alex Bregman

has "Really Good Chance" to Return Before All-Star Break
Teoscar Hernández

Teoscar Hernandez Expected to Return on Friday
Walter Clayton Jr.

Leads Jazz to Summer League Win
Carter Bryant

Struggles in Summer League Loss
Kyle Filipowski

Drops a Double-Double in Summer League Action on Tuesday
Oklahoma City Thunder

Malevy Leons Logs Impressive Summer League Outing on Tuesday
Dalton Knecht

Collects 25 Points in Lakers Summer League Win
Los Angeles Lakers

Darius Bazley Drops 27 Points in Summer League on Tuesday
Gary Woodland

Looking to Find Rhythm at Scottish Open
Aaron Rai

Brings Consistent Play to Scottish Open
Maverick McNealy

a Solid Value Play at Scottish Open
Aldrich Potgieter

Making Scottish Open Debut
Tom Kim

Looks to Rebound at Scottish Open
Brian Harman

a Safe Option at Scottish Open
Luke Clanton

a Sneaky Value Play at Scottish Open
Sam Burns

Looking to Stay Hot at Scottish Open
Chet Holmgren

Agrees to Rookie Max Extension
Alex Bregman

Not Returning Wednesday
Jhoan Duran

Unavailable Due to Illness
Shane McClanahan

Tosses Clean Frame in First Rehab Appearance
Jacob Wilson

Day-to-Day After HBP
Nicolai Hojgaard

May Feel More at Home in Europe
Harry Hall

Showing Fine Form Heading to Scotland
Ronald Acuña Jr.

Ronald Acuna Jr. to be Reassessed Wednesday
Ryan Fox

Playing Well Since Early Spring Struggles
Malaki Branham

Traded to Washington
Max Greyserman

has Solid History at the Genesis Scottish Open
Blake Wesley

Moves to Washington
Harris English

Aims High for Scotland Next
Corey Conners

Primed for the Genesis Scottish Open
Kelly Olynyk

on the Move Again
Daniel Brown

Attempts the Scottish Swing Again
Anthony Davis

Recovering From Eye Surgery
Jacob Bridgeman

Needs Putter to Work at Genesis Scottish Open
Cal Raleigh

Continues Historic Homer Pace Tuesday
Scottie Scheffler

Headlines Field at Genesis Scottish Open
Rory McIlroy

a Smart Play for Scottish Open
Adam Scott

Looking to Build on History at The Renaissance Club
NASCAR

Sepp Straka Not Likely to Find Momentum at Scottish Open
Justin Rose

Hopes Month Hiatus Helps Him Bounce Back at Scottish Open
NHL

Tyler Johnson Retires After 13 NHL Seasons
Jack McBain

Inks New Five-Year Deal with Mammoth
Cam York

Re-Signs with Flyers for Five Years
Jake Knapp

Fits the Mold for Success at The Renaissance Club
Ty Gibbs

Finishes Second at Chicago and Advances in In-Season Challenge
Alex Bowman

Defeats Bubba Wallace in In-Season Challenge, but Not Without Controversy
Alex Bowman

Bubba Wallace Wrecked by Alex Bowman Again, Putting Playoffs in Doubt
Michael McDowell

Throttle Failure Ends Michael McDowell's Chances to Win at Chicago
Austin Hill

Earns First NASCAR Cup Series Top Ten at Chicago
Tyler Reddick

Scores a Strong Third-Place Run at Chicago
Kyle Busch

Matches his Best Career Finish At Chicago on Sunday
Denny Hamlin

Fights his Way to a Top-5 Finish at Chicago
William Byron

has his Worst Weekend of the Season at Chicago
Sonny Milano

on Track to Be Ready for Training Camp
Jakub Dobes

Signs Two-Year Deal with Canadiens
NHL

Hendrix Lapierre Signs One-Year Deal with Capitals
Carson Hocevar

Should DFS Players Consider Carson Hocevar for Chicago Lineups?
Tye Kartye

Kraken Re-Sign Tye Kartye for Two Years
Ross Chastain

May be A Decent DFS Option for Chicago Lineups
Dmitri Voronkov

Signs Two-Year, $8.35 Million Extension with Blue Jackets
Ryan Preece

Should DFS Players Roster Ryan Preece at Chicago?
Austin Dillon

Is Too Great of A Risk to Add to Chicago Lineups
Zane Smith

Is A Value Play Worth Rostering At Chicago
Austin Hill

is A Favorable Value Option for Chicago DFS Lineups
Ty Dillon

Is Ty Dillon A Decent Driver to Add For NASCAR DFS At Chicago?
William Byron

Qualifying Crash Makes William Byron a Likely DFS Must-Have
Alex Bowman

Should Finish Well, but Probably Costs Too Much for Serious DFS Consideration
Joey Logano

Has Been Relatively Mediocre on Road Courses Lately
Ryan Blaney

Doesn't Really Fit Neatly into Optimal DFS Lineups
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF