Are You For Real? Surprising Pitcher Starts from Week 8

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

Memorial Day is seen by many as an unofficial marker for the baseball season, with stats and standings starting to feel a bit more "real" than they did even a week ago. This week we're looking at a trio of right-handers, some of whom have been around for quite some time, while others are just beginning their major league careers. We'll be diving deep into the recent performances of Cincinnati's Graham Ashcraft, Boston's Nick Pivetta, and San Francisco's Alex Cobb.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 5/30/22.

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Graham Ashcraft, Cincinnati Reds – 1% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 4.1 IP, 4.15 ERA, 3.83 FIP, 4.8 K-BB%

5/27 vs. SF: 6.1 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 2 BB, 1 K

Friday was just the second career start for Ashcraft, but the 24-year-old righty came up big for Cincinnati, going more than six scoreless en route to his first career victory. His opponent was no joke either, as the Giants are currently tied for the third highest wOBA as a club in the major leagues. The Reds’ rotation has been decimated by injuries, so if Ashcraft can pitch well a regular spot in the rotation is practically certain. Can the rookie hang on to be a positive contributor, or will he wash out like so many other Cincy arms?

Although Graham Ashcraft sounds like the name of a fourth-generation legacy admission to Harvard, Ashcraft actually attended Mississippi State and later UAB, where he was drafted in the sixth round by Cincinnati in 2019. Ashcraft never reached a national level of hype of fellow Reds pitching prospects Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo, but Ashcraft was considered a top-10 prospect within the Cincinnati organization thanks to his power fastball and slider combination. Ashcraft works with three pitches total; a cutter, sinker, and slider, and is best known for his velocity. Ashcraft’s fastball has sat in the high 90s and maxed out at 101.2 in this start.

The interesting thing about Ashcraft’s approach is that he throws both a cutter and a sinker at max velocity, and his 97.5 MPH average cutter velocity is 3 MPH harder than the highest qualified starting pitcher. Ashcraft also uses his cutter as his primary fastball, something rarely seen in today’s game. Ashcraft has thrown his cutter 43.5% of the time thus far, and only one qualified pitcher (Corbin Burnes) has thrown a cutter more than 40% of the time this season. Ashcraft is far, far from having a Corbin Burnes-like impact, but this abnormal usage points to the uniqueness of Ashcraft’s approach.

Ashcraft’s approach does have one big upside, and that’s groundballs. Ashcraft has had a groundball rate of at least 54% at every level of the minors and is at 58.3% through his first two MLB starts. He had a monster 71.4% groundball rate at Triple-A before his promotion. Ashcraft gets it done by pounding in high-velocity cutters and sinkers, two of the hardest pitches to elevate if located properly. Opponents have a 1-degree average launch angle off Ashcraft’s cutter and a -14-degree off his sinker thus far. While it would be hard to expect the sinker launch angle to hold over time, between his velocity, cutter/sinker-heavy approach, and previous track record, there’s every reason to believe Ashcraft can be an above average groundball pitcher in the major leagues.

The problem is the fun kind of stops at groundballs. Ashcraft’s strikeout rate has dwindled with each promotion throughout the minors, and he has a paltry 8.9% strikeout rate through his first two starts. His slider is his best strikeout pitch, but its style contrasts that of his hard cutter and sinker-heavy approach. Ashcraft throws his slider much softer (84 MPH) and it has big vertical movement, making it closer to a slurve than a traditional hard slider. Here’s an example from this start.

It looks like a really solid pitch there, and it does grade well in terms of spin and vertical movement. It does stand out in Ashcraft’s case because generally hard throwers like Ashcraft trend towards using harder, sharper sliders. Going from hard, sharp fastballs to slow, loopy sliders could make it easier for batters to read the pitch. Perhaps Ashcraft can make it work as the pitch does have positive attributes, but it’s worth noting that the GIF above was the only swinging strike he earned on the slider in that start, and he has a pathetic 2.2% swinging strike rate with the pitch thus far.

Verdict:

Ashcraft reminds me a bit of fellow Cincy arm Tony Santillan in that he throws hard, but his repertoire is limited and he might be best served in the bullpen long term. Ashcraft is basically working with two fastball variations and a slurve and is battling control issues. He had an 11.3% walk rate before promotion and has an 8.9% walk rate through his first two starts. The velocity and groundballs are nice, but not enough to make up for an otherwise unexciting profile. Players should be hesitant to deploy Ashcraft in all but the most desperate of circumstances.

Nick Pivetta, Boston Red Sox – 56% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 48.2 IP, 4.25 ERA, 3.90 FIP, 15.1 K-BB%

5/29 vs. BAL 6 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 5 K

After getting off to a rocky start, Pivetta has been rolling as of late, posting a 1.59 ERA over his last five starts with a monster 5.0 K/BB ratio over that period. He’s gone from an absolute joke in the fantasy community to a strong, positive contributor. Pivetta has burned many a fantasy manager in the past with phony hot stretches and juicy underlying stats that never quite reach the surface, but the 29-year-old is showing a start-to-start consistency we’ve never seen before. Has Pivetta finally turned the corner, or will the clock strike midnight on him yet again?

Pivetta became a fantasy darling back in 2018 when he posted an unsightly 7-14 record and 4.77 ERA with Philadelphia, but his 3.51 SIERA and 10.32 K/9 had many thinking stardom was in his future. Unfortunately, Pivetta suffers from a deep and innate inability to throw strikes along with a chronic case of gopheritis, and it’s tough to ascend when you walk everybody and can’t keep the ball in the yard. Pivetta works mostly with three pitches: his four-seam fastball, a slider, and a curveball. He does throw the odd changeup once in a while, but it’s mostly about the fastball, slider, and curveball for Pivetta.

Interestingly, not much has changed in terms of pitch sequencing for Pivetta during his hot stretch. He’s favored his curveball a bit more over his slider in recent starts, but it’s hardly indicative of a shift in approach or style. Where things have changed is in the control department, as the normally wild Pivetta has a 4.7% walk rate over his last five starts. His zone rate is about the same during his hot stretch compared to his career, so it’s a bit puzzling as to how Pivetta is achieving this. The closest thing I could find to a tangible change is a greater emphasis on high fastball usage. Here is a heatmap comparison of Pivetta’s fastball location for his career (top) compared to his last five starts (bottom).

Pivetta is really hammering the high fastballs, which tend to induce more whiffs compared to middle and lower heaters. Pivetta’s fastball has a 31.7% chase rate this season versus a 26.6% chase rate for his career, so while he’s not throwing more pitches in the zone, he is having a better time inducing hitters to swing at bad pitches. This increase in chase rate might be attributed to his focus on high fastballs, especially ones above the strike zone. This is a positive shift for Pivetta and it should prove him well should he find a way to sustain it.

The problem is that the changes end there for Pivetta. As mentioned earlier, he isn’t doing much else different with his pitch sequencing or approach other than throwing his fastball up more frequently. Perhaps that’s the only change Pivetta needed to take the next step, but the more likely scenario is a string of good fortune has blessed the 29-year-old righty. Over his last five starts, Pivetta has a .202 BABIP and 86.6% LOB rate. His 0.5 HR/9 rate during that period is also quite suspect since Pivetta still served up a 42.9% flyball rate and has a career 1.5 HR/9. The walks have started to come back a bit for Pivetta as well, as he walked three batters and allowed eight baserunners in this start. He was quite fortunate to have only allowed one run, perhaps thanks in part to a matchup against the punchless Orioles. A more formidable opponent may have been able to capitalize on Pivetta’s mistakes.

Verdict:

Sure, he’s walking fewer batters and throwing high fastballs, but not much else has changed for Pivetta. The biggest driver of his success appears to be BABIP luck, as he still has a meager 9.7% swinging strike rate and an ultra-low 34.6% groundball rate. Pivetta has not posted an ERA below 4.53 in any season of his career, and maybe that changes this year when it’s all said and done, but it’s hard to envision him sustaining an ERA much lower than four. He was a much more interesting fantasy option when he was racking up strikeouts, but a 22.8% strikeout rate just isn’t that special anymore. Pivetta is a high-risk streaming option and someone who should be sold off while his value is high, if possible.

Alex Cobb, San Francisco Giants – 46% Rostered

2022 Stats (prior to this start): 31.2 IP, 6.25 ERA, 2.76 FIP, 21.3% K-BB%

5/29 @ CIN: 6 IP, 4 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 8 K

Cobb had been getting knocked around ahead of this start, having surrendered a whopping 13 earned runs over his last two starts combined. In fairness, one of those starts did take place in Coors Field, but managers of Cobb were certainly sweating over his recent performance, many even dropping him in standard leagues. The underlying numbers still look great on Cobb and he seems to have righted the ship to a degree on Sunday against Cincinnati, racking up eight strikeouts over six innings in a no decision. Is this start enough to trust Cobb again, or should we be concerned he’ll have another blowup shortly?

A 34-year-old veteran of ten years, Cobb was once a highly regarded prospect in Tampa Bay’s farm system. The right-hander was known primarily for his wicked splitter, an offering many thought (and one could still make the case) was among the best splitters in all of baseball. Cobb pairs it with a sinker and curveball, but make no mistake, it’s been all about the splitter for Cobb, especially in the more recent stages of his career. Cobb was floundering in Baltimore, but the Angels had him putting greater emphasis on splitter usage and throwing his curveball less often, leading to a mid-30s renaissance for Cobb last season.

Based on his pitch sequencing thus far, it appears that Cobb is still leaning heavily on that splitter in 2022, throwing the pitch a career-high 40.8% of the time. Heavy splitter usage is the right path for Cobb, as opponents are hitting just .231 with a 19.8% swinging strike rate off the pitch this season. This approach was working reasonably well for Cobb through his first five starts, as he had a 3.98 ERA and 2.20 FIP, but things went totally sideways for him after that as his ERA ballooned to over six after two rough outings. One of those outings was in Colorado as previously mentioned, and Cobb only used his splitter 18.5% of the time in that start.

The thin Colorado air does affect breaking ball movement and effectiveness, so perhaps Cobb did not have a feel for that pitch in the environment. Prior to 2022, Cobb has spent his entire career in the American league and therefore has little experience with Coors Field, so perhaps we can chalk that one up to unfamiliarity along with the typical Coors shenanigans. His bad start against the Mets is a bit more concerning because Cobb used his splitter 50% of the time and it was at home, but Cobb’s been prone to blowups at previous points in his career, primarily due to his overreliance on one pitch. While we shouldn’t write off that outing completely, it should be considered an occupational hazard when it comes to rostering Alex Cobb.

Cobb’s splitter is a strong pitch, one of the best strikeout offerings in the game today. It boasts above-average movement and low spin, which is ideal for a split-change like Cobb’s. That being said, Cobb is something of a one-trick pony on the mound. His fastball velocity is up to 94.6 MPH this season, which is a good sign, but his fastball has been rocked at times in his career, including this season where batters are hitting .299 off the pitch. He does have a 64% groundball rate with his sinker this season, but his career groundball rate is 45%, so one would expect regression on that front. All told, Cobb’s fastball isn’t a special offering even with the increased velocity.

Cobb’s curveball isn’t much to get excited about either, as batters are pulverizing the pitch for a .600 AVG and 1.200 SLG. He’s only used the pitch 15% of the time, but it’s a bad sign when your third pitch is practically unusable due to how badly opponents have crushed it. Of course, we’d also expect some positive regression for Cobb’s curveball, but at best this is a mix-things-up pitch that Cobb cannot rely on consistently for outs.

Verdict:

Utilizing pitchers like Cobb in fantasy can prove quite beneficial if the manager understands taking a calculated risk. Cobb is a high-risk, high-reward type of player because he’s so dependent on one excellent pitch. When he’s on he can have dominant, high-strikeout games as we saw on Sunday. When things aren’t working, look out below because he can’t get anyone out. He touches each end of the extreme every season, and he will continue to be a volatile, high strikeout arm going forward. I’d certainly be more interested in adding Cobb than Nick Pivetta, both of whom are available in about the same percentage of leagues. I don’t think Cobb can get his ERA to match his 2.34 xFIP, but putting up a season similar to last year (93.1 IP, 3.76 ERA, 9.45 K/9) seems entirely possible despite recent hiccups. Avoid using Cobb in Coors Field or against particularly difficult matchups and the results should mostly be positive.

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