Are You For Real? Surprising MLB Pitcher Starts from Week 20

August 24, 2022

Elliott Baas looks at starting pitchers who turned in surprising starts recently. These SP could emerge as waiver wire targets and sleepers for Week 20, or simply mirages.

Welcome back to "Are You For Real?", a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put them under the microscope to determine whether they're legit or just smoke and mirrors.

We're taking a trip to America's heartland this week, with two Central arms going under the microscope for a deeper look following some fine pitching. This week, we'll be looking at a strong start from Pittsburgh's JT Brubaker and the emergence of former top prospect Matt Manning in Detroit.

Roster percentages are taken from Yahoo and are accurate as of 8/22/22.

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JT Brubaker, Pittsburgh Pirates -- 7% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 113.1 IP, 4.45 ERA, 3.81 FIP, 13.9% K-BB%

08/18 vs. BOS: 7 IP, 2 H, 0 ER, 0 BB, 7 K

Brubaker turned in one of his best starts all year on Thursday, blanking the BoSox over seven innings while picking up his third victory of the season. Brubaker has been a mainstay in Pittsburgh’s rotation all season, quietly racking up innings on a last-place team while remaining off fantasy radars.

There just hadn’t been that much to like about a pitcher with a 3-10 record and an ERA over four, but that may be about to change after Brubaker’s dominant start on Thursday. Does Brubaker have what it takes to be an impact arm down the stretch, or will JT Brubaker turn into JK Brubaker, fooling us all?

Originally drafted in the sixth round by Pittsburgh back in 2015, Brubaker was never much of a high-profile prospect. He gained some notoriety in the Pittsburgh organization, but had zero presence on a national level and didn’t crack the majors until he was 26 years old. The righty works with a five-pitch mix but relies heavily on three of those five pitches. Brubaker leans on his sinker, slider, and curveball on the mound, and throws the occasional four-seam fastball and changeup.

Breaking balls have been the catalyst behind Brubaker’s success (when he’s had it), and there are some impressive underlying numbers on both his slider and curveball this season. We’ll start with the slider as Brubaker throws the pitch 31.2% of the time, almost double the usage rate of his curve. Brubaker has gotten decent results with this pitch, including a .247 AVG, .414 SLG, and .317 wOBA against his slider this season.

Those numbers are passable, but according to Statcast's expected stats, Brubaker has been rather unlucky with his slider thus far. He has a .215 MBA, .366 xSLG, and .288 xwOBA with his slider this year.

Those expected stats are believable as well thanks to a whopping 21.2% swinging strike rate and 40.7% chase rate with the pitch. It’s a hard, sharp pitch averaging about 86 MPH on the gun. Brubaker’s slider also has exceptional side-to-side movement, boasting 3.3 inches of a break above the league average. Here are two particularly nasty examples from a start earlier this season.

Brubaker made Miami’s Bryan De La Cruz take one of the most foolish-looking swings this writer can remember seeing at the big-league level. While not a mind-blowingly great pitch, Brubaker’s slider looks like a plus offering capable of generating whiffs regularly and ensuring he maintains a healthy overall strikeout rate.

Brubaker’s slider has a lot of strong attributes, but the real gem of his arsenal is the curveball. Coming in at 80.1 MPH, Brubaker’s curveball is a traditional, loopy bender that often drops in at the bottom of the zone or just below it. The numbers on this pitch are darn impressive, as opponents have managed just a .211 AVG, .296 SLG, and .238 wOBA with the pitch this season, along with a 14% swinging strike rate and 37.9% chase rate with the curveball.

What makes the pitch so special? Spin rate. Brubaker’s curveball averages 2817 RPM, putting him in the 89^th percentile of curveball spin in the major leagues. Here’s an example of the pitch from an earlier start this season.

That’s a classic curveball, with its rainbow arc allowing it to kiss the bottom of the zone. Between the curve and the slider, Brubaker has two above-average breaking balls, which is a very, very nice thing to have as a major league starter.

So, with two plus breaking pitches, it’s a wonder why Brubaker hasn’t been better this season. His sinker hasn’t gotten the best results (.281 AVG, .429 SLG against), but that’s hardly catastrophic. One of the biggest reasons behind Brubaker’s struggles seems to be plain old rotten luck. Brubaker has a .329 BABIP against this season.

Part of that BABIP is his own doing, as Brubaker has allowed a 22.3% line drive rate this year (league average is 20%) along with an 11.1-degree average launch angle. When you allow this many line drives, the hits are bound to fall.

Part of the reason, though, may lie in his defense. The Pirates rank 24^th in the majors in outs above average (OAA) this season at -18 and have put up similarly miserable metrics in other advanced defensive metrics, such as UZR (-7), DRS (-5), and FanGraphs dWAR (-14.3).

This is just a bad team with a bad defense, and unfortunately for Brubaker, that isn’t changing anytime soon. Other than Ke’Bryan Hayes at third, no Pittsburgh regulars are plus defenders. The outfield has been especially bad, with centerfielder Bryan Reynolds turning in an abysmal -8 OAA and -9 DRS this season.

Bad luck and defensive woes aside, there’s still a lot to like about JT Brubaker. Not only does he have two solid secondary offerings, but his fastball velocity was also trending back upwards in this start after a prolonged dip lasting about a month, and he has a relatively long leash for any given start. He completed seven innings in this start against Boston and seems to be allowed to go deep as long as he’s pitching well. Innings limits and pitch counts are one of the biggest drawbacks to many waiver wire arms, so Pittsburgh’s apparent trust in Brubaker is a valuable commodity.

Verdict:

Brubaker’s arsenal suggests he can be an effective major league starter. He has a decent sinker with a velocity that can touch 97 MPH and has a strong slider and curveball. One of his biggest faults is out of his control, which is the team he plays for. If Brubaker was on a better, more high-profile team, he’d likely garner a lot more fantasy attention and attain a sleeper status. Use the East Coast and outcome-driven biases of other fantasy players against them and grab Brubaker now for a helpful arm to use down the stretch.

He’s probably not quite standard mixed league relevant yet, but Brubaker is a fine addition in leagues deeper than 12 teams. He’s still not someone we should trust in every single matchup, which is why Brubaker should be avoided if possible in his next start, which is home against Atlanta on Tuesday.

Matt Manning, Detroit Tigers – 9% Rostered

2022 Stats (before this start): 25 IP, 3.24 ERA, 3.76 FIP, 8.6 K-BB%

08/19 vs. LAA: 7 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 6 K

There was some great pitching Friday in Detroit, and while Manning was upstaged by Patrick Sandoval’s absolute gem of a start, the young right-hander still turned in one of the better starts of his career to this point. Manning held Los Angeles to a lone run over seven innings while striking out six in the tough-luck loss. Following this start, Manning now owns a sparkling 2.81 ERA on the year, but is he ready to take the leap, or will this recent surge prove a fake-out?

The ninth overall pick by Detroit back in 2016, Manning was considered one of the top pitching prospects in all of baseball before his graduation. He, along with Casey Mize and Tarik Skubal, was supposed to remake the Tigers' rotation into something fierce.

The results on that have been mixed thus far, but Manning has started to pull his weight over his last few starts. Manning works with a five-pitch mix consisting of a four-seam fastball, sinker, slider, curveball, and changeup. It may be a deep arsenal for Manning, but there’s one pitch that has stood above the rest this season, and it’s his newest pitch, the slider.

When Manning was a prospect, scouts raved about his fastball-curveball combo, but those pitches proved ineffective when Manning reached Triple-A, where he posted an unbelievably bad 8.07 ERA the first time around. They were equally ineffective in the majors, which is why Detroit had Manning develop his slider in the first place.

At 83.5 MPH, Manning’s slider is relatively soft compared to his 93.5 MPH heater and comes in a little loopier than your typical slider. Batters have been stymied by this pitch, posting a measly .190 AVG, .238 SLG, and .200 wOBA off Manning’s slider this year.

Manning’s slider isn’t a standout in velocity or spin, but it has shown exceptional vertical movement, with 7.4 inches of drop on his slider compared to the league average. This was a huge leap from last season as well, as Manning gained five inches of drop on his slider between this season and the previous one.

The effect of this change can be seen in the underlying numbers as well since Manning’s swinging strike rate with the slider nearly doubled from last season (10.2%) to this one (19.1%). The chase rate also jumped by 11% up to 36.4%, and the zone rate dropped by 5% down to 53.2%. It’s perhaps most evident in the heatmaps. Here is a comparison of Manning’s slider heatmaps from last season (top) and this season (bottom).

We can certainly visualize that zone rate drop, as Manning is now putting the pitch exactly where it belongs in the low and away corner. While it would be difficult for Manning to sustain outcomes this good on his slider, there is evidence of tangible change here with a direct link to success.

A year ago, Manning looked lost on the mound, and this writer had serious doubts about his long-term viability as a starter. These slider improvements are a huge step in the right direction, and Manning may have something to give fantasy players after all. Of course, the remaining issues with Manning didn’t evaporate overnight. The issue of strikeouts remains, as Manning has a pitiful 6.47 K/9 despite such strong numbers on his slider.

That means his other pitches are providing nothing in the strikeout department, and that appears to be true once one dives into the peripherals. Outside of his show-me changeup (6.2% usage rate), none of his other pitches has a swinging strike rate above 7.2% or a chase rate above 31%.

Manning is getting decent results on his fastball and curveball, but that’s thanks in large part to a .263 BABIP. All of his pitches are rocking a BABIP of .271 or lower, and his sinker has a laughably unsustainable .154 BABIP against. A point in Manning’s favor may be his propensity for allowing soft contact, as he’s shaved more than four MPH off his average exit velocity against for a cool 87.1 MPH this year. This is a nice trend, but 32 innings is far too small a sample size to extract anything meaningful yet.

Verdict:

Manning has made huge strides with his slider, gaining over five inches of drop on the pitch in 2022. That pitch has been the catalyst for his success this season and represents the first plus pitch Manning has flashed in the majors. The rest of his stuff leaves something to be desired, and he’ll likely never be an above-average strikeout pitcher.

Still, there are some things to like, such as his improvements in soft contact rate. Manning has gone from someone this writer would never touch in fantasy to a low-end streamer. There’s still a lot missing from his game, but he is startable in the right situation. His next matchup is a neutral one, home against San Francisco. He’s not a must-have there, but you could do worse in a deep league.

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