Andrew Benintendi and Franchy Cordero Trade - Fantasy Impacts

February 19, 2021

Frank looks at the MLB trade sending Andrew Benintendi to the Royals and Franchy Cordero to the Red Sox - their 2021 fantasy baseball values, outlooks and where to draft them.

We've seen a few blockbuster trades so far this offseason. Francisco Lindor and Carlos Carrasco went to the Mets, while Yu Darvish and Blake Snell went to the Padres. These trades have significant fantasy implications, but it's important to also consider the impact of a minor trade that went down about a week ago, where the Red Sox and Royals swapped young outfielders Andrew Benintendi and Franchy Cordero.

The Mets were the third team involved in the deal, receiving prospect Khalil Lee, but the focus of this article will be on Benintendi and Cordero. Both of these players have the potential to make an impact as a sleeper target in your fantasy drafts. Benintendi has a track record of early success and is now entering his age-26 season. Cordero is now playing for his third team in three years, but he crushes the baseball.

In this article, we'll review each hitter's track records while exploring the changes in team context and how it impacts their fantasy values going forward. We'll also provide a recommendation on who is the preferred target in your fantasy drafts. Let's dive in to find out more about the skills profile of each of these two young hitters.

Track Record Review 

Andrew Benintendi

Benintendi had a lost 2020 season, totaling only 52 plate appearances due to a season-ending rib injury in early September. Prior to that, this was a player who could be relied upon for a solid average while chipping in with double-digit home runs and stolen bases. It seems that Benintendi made an effort to hit the ball harder in 2019, as evidenced by his improvements in Barrel% and wOBAcon, which was detrimental to his batting average.

While his numbers were on a downward trajectory, we still have to give credit for his strong production in his age-23 and age-24 seasons from 2017-2018. There aren't too many hitters who have put up a 20-20 season at such a young age. According to Stathead Baseball, since 2010, the following players posted 20-20 prior to their age-24 season: Mike Trout, Ronald Acuña, Mookie Betts, Jason Heyward, Justin Upton, Manny Machado, and Andrew Benintendi - pretty impressive company.

Benintendi looks like a player who got an early taste of big league success, which caused Boston media to hype him up into their next superstar. Once he started to struggle, the pressure that comes with playing for the Red Sox could have impacted his production. This looks like a player who desperately needed a change of scenery. Kansas City is the perfect spot for him, as he'll now be out of the limelight, trying to rediscover his form on a small market team.

Franchy Cordero

Cordero has been a favorite of the fantasy baseball community for several years now because of how hard he hits the baseball. This is a hitter who has shown the ability to barrel the ball at a high rate. The problem is that he's been unable to secure consistent playing time and will now be playing for his third team in the last three years. Perhaps teams are put off by his high strikeout tendencies, but it's clear that there's upside for power production.

Last season, Cordero's max exit velocity was 111.8 MPH, ranking 43rd in MLB. His career-high is 116.9 MPH, which would have ranked 2nd last season, behind Pete Alonso. This is a hitter with 90th-percentile exit velocity, so it's easy to see why so many observers are excited about his potential. Cordero also has 68th-percentile sprint speed, stealing 15 bases in 419 plate appearances in Triple-A back in 2019. This is a player with legit 30-15 upside.

Like Benintendi, this is a hitter who needed a change of scenery. Cordero struggled to find his footing in Kansas City, which is understandable given the tumultuous nature of the shortened 2020 season. He'll now be hitting in a strong Red Sox lineup, surrounded by talented hitters like J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, and Rafael Devers. Having said that, it's now or never for Cordero, who really needs to find a home and turn this exit velocity into production.

Changes in Team Context

It's clear that Cordero gets an upgrade at Fenway, while Benintendi gets a downgrade at Kauffman, but Benintendi isn't much of a power hitter anyway. He should still be able to hit 15-20 home runs in Kansas City. Cordero's power will play well in the bandbox that is Fenway, but keep in mind that the Red Sox added a humidor last season, so it remains to be seen if that will suppress power production once we see a larger sample.

The good news for Benintendi is that the Royals love to turn it loose on the basepaths. Last season, they ranked 4th with 49 stolen bases, while the Red Sox came in 11th with 31. In 2019, the Royals put up 117 steals (2nd) and the Red Sox put up 68 (16th). Benintendi has a good chance at setting a new career-high in steals this season.

Outlook

Benintendi is the safer pick because he has more of a track record than Cordero, but the latter has more upside due to his elite ability to barrel the baseball. I think that both hitters will benefit from the change of scenery, making them each worth a look as flyers in your drafts. In NFBC leagues, Benintendi is currently being selected at a 229 ADP and Cordero has a 406 ADP. While I prefer Benintendi, I would suggest drafting both of these players because I think they're each ready to set career-highs - Benintendi in steals, Cordero in home runs.

More Fantasy Baseball Analysis