👉 TAP TO SAVE 30% WITH CODE NEW
X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

All-Star Break Rest-of-Season Strategy: Head-to-Head Leagues

Happy All-Star Break to all you fantasy baseball nerds out there. As we sit through what seems like the longest four days of the summer, I thought it might be helpful to discuss some general season-long strategy for the rest of the year. Of course, strategy can differ greatly based on your league type, so I'll be supplying some thoughts for both rotisserie and head-to-head leagues.

In head-to-head leagues, the goal is to find a way into the playoffs while also preparing for them. I'm going to assume we are working with a weekly matchup, redraft format in which points are accrued weekly, walks and HBPs help batters, and strikeouts hinder them. At the end of the week, you get a win, loss, or tie for that week, and a certain number of teams make the playoffs. This format is much like the majority of fantasy football formats. With that in mind, it's much more likely that a middle-of-the road team  can find it's way to the championship than in a roto league (which I've discussed in depth in a previous article). Likewise, it's very possible that the best team in the regular season can lose in the first week of the playoffs. While this nerve-racking amount of parody and varience disturbs me, there are plenty of fantasy baseball players who enjoy it.

So, let's look at three different, general scenarios that you may be in right now in your head-to-head league and talk about how you might effectively go about making the playoffs and continuing your success through to the championship matchup. If you have specific questions or you want to chat more strategy, I'm always open. You can find me on Twitter @BellRoto. Best of luck to you in the home stretch!

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball draft tools and resources:

 

H2H League Strategy Rest-Of-Season

Top 33% - Two Games or Less Out of First Place

The variations of head-to-head leagues that exist make specifics very difficult in this type of article, but there are a few main foundations that need to be taken into account at this point in the year if you'd like to have success in these next few months. First, the playoffs allow for more owners to be in the running for money and the championship. Thus, as long as owners don't give up on their teams, there should be more competition for a longer period of time than in roto leagues. Second, the fact that the playoffs exist means there is a shorter regular season. This means that h2h leagues are likely close to 65% or 70% over by now instead of roto's 55% or so. Lastly, the fact that you're matching up against one player each week provides variance in that you could both go on a huge run, winning five or six weeks in a row against poor opponents, or go on a cold streak, playing the top point-scorer three times in a row and losing mulitple weeks despite your team performing well compared to the league as a whole.

This is why I no longer play head-to-head fantasy baseball, and it's also why I would jump at the chance to play in a sensible roto-type fantasy football league. Even still, there is plenty of strategy that goes into h2h leagues, allowing for us to analyze such strategy for the rest of the year.

Let's assume, for simplicity's sake, that you're in a 12-team head-to-head points league (no divisions) that has six playoff spots. This category, then, would likely identify the top four teams in the league at the All-Star Break. These teams are likely going to make the playoffs by season's end, so their main concerns right now are getting as high as possible in the standings, but also preparing for the (likely) three weeks of playoffs. In this case, the top two teams would likely receive a first-round bye. That concept can also bring in a whole different bundle of strategy.

Aside from picking up high-upside waiver fodder to fill your bench, DL, and NA spots, you should also be looking to handcuff important pieces of your team if you're in this position. An example of this, similar to picking up the back-up running back in fantasy football, is stashing the set-up man for your closer. This move makes more sense in some scenarios than others (possible trade, closer struggling, set-up man really good numbers, etc.), but it should be mentioned regardless. If there is not an opportunity to handcuff one of your closers, perhaps picking up a speculative, future save-getter like Archie Bradley would be a good move.

Another non-trade piece of advice that makes sense for a team like this is fine-tuning strategy and studying opponents. Depending on the restrictions in your league, you may be able to successfully deploy a zero-RP or zero-SP approach, altering the types of players you start each week dramatically. Perhaps you're beginning to notice that speedy, stolen base threats constantly have better weeks than streaky home run hitters. Now is a good type to explore those strategies to ensure you aren't leaving points on your bench or on the waiver wire. If you can begin to guess who your first playoff game will be against, you can try to undermine their strategy as well. The list goes on in terms of mini-strategies that you can use to incrementally better your winning chances once the meaningful matchups begin.

Lastly, trading is an obvious method of improving your team, and you can amplify the waiver wire strategy above by trading risky players for predictably reliable players that better compliment the foundation of your team. You can also begin to look ahead to the playoff weeks and cater trades for those matchups specifically. This works great for starting pitchers, as you might be able to trade Jon Gray at home against the Diamondbacks for Sonny Gray at home against the Angels.

I could go on for hours on how to prepare for the playoffs, and still it might not be relevant for your specific combination of rules and regulations. My point with this section is simply that you should begin looking forward to the playoff weeks as soon as you can without hindering your chanecs at a good regular season finish. Variance and parody makes things very interesting in head-to-head points leagues that include playoffs, so preparing for those weeks when your opponents are just trying to make the playoffs can give you a slight advantage.

 

Middle 33% - Between Three and Five Games Out

It's go time, folks.

If you're in this category (likely between sixth and eighth in the specific league we outlined above), you can't afford to wait any longer for regression to come. Perhaps the player who's still barely making the playoffs can wait-and-see for another week or two. But remember that playoffs cut down the regular season tremendously, and you would rather not have to "win-or-go-home" in the final week of the season if you can avoid it.

Fantasy owners in this category should be seeking out possible consolidation trades in order to buy stud players that can help you big time on a weekly basis. You should be able to find some solid replacement value on the waive wire, and hopefully the move you made to get Manny Machado in Week 16 pays off in the first round of the playoffs in the form of five home runs and 12 RBI. Don't be afraid to be risky here, either. The owners in the section above might be looking to get rid of what we thought were slow starters because they would prefer a safer bat in the playoffs. Rougned Odor, Nick Castellanos, and Yoenis Cespedes are three relatively risky hitters that I could realistically see hitting 20 home runs between now and the time your playoffs start. If they don't, you might miss the playoffs by one game. But if they do, you might be looking at a first-round upset on your way to a big payout.

Streaming should become more prevalent for fantasy owners in this category as well, as you can no longer afford to trot out John Lackey with the hope that the Cubs score enough runs to at least get you a win. Choosing hot, lesser-known hitters with good matchups over veterans who might sit out a game can be a viable strategy to steal a few extra points as well. Whatever you can do, risky or not, to potentially steal you a win each week should be considered. You are not at the all-or-nothing stage yet, especially in the leagues that send a lot of teams to the playoffs, but you're not sitting pretty either. Buck up and make some moves if you still want a legitimate chance at winning this league.

There's not nearly as much to say about these teams because the path they should be taking is pretty clear at this point. Good luck to those of you in playoff-limbo right now, and please don't be the guy who misses the playoffs by one game because he refused to trade (or drop) the fading player on his favorite team.

 

Bottom 33% - More Than Five Games Out

While I still will promo RotoBaller's great fantasy football content that is already pouring onto our great website, there might still be time for these folks in head-to-head fantasy baseball leagues. Depending on the playoff size in your league, a nice winning streak could put you right in the thick of things. On the other hand, if you're seven games out of a playoff spot with seven games left, you can probably rip the band-aid off now and hit that "Football" tab up top.

With that being said, and this is even more important here than it was in the roto write-up, please do not completely forget about your team now that you're mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. With weekly matchups determining playoff status each week, you need to at least check-in every Sunday to make sure there aren't any injured players on your roster and that the best players on your team are starting. If you don't want to touch waivers or field trade offers, fine. But don't ruin everyone else's fun by giving the sixth place team a free win in the second-to-last week.

For those cellar dwellars that still do have a chance at a playoff spot, you better hit your league's group chat platform now and start talking some trades. Make some risks, buy some players that nobody wants, and pretend like every week is a must-win week... Because it pretty much is. I shouldn't have to tell you much more than that. The majority of fantasy advice on podcasts and in articles will be catered towards the owners in the two sections above, but you don't have to be reasonable anymore. If you think Luis Castillo and Joey Gallo could explode the next two months, go trade Jake Arrieta and Jonathan Lucroy for them. You can't afford to wait on those guys at this point. YOU NEED TO WIN NOW!

You get the gist. Rankings or buy-low/sell-high trade advice won't help you now. Go with your guy and try to make a movie-worthy miracle happen in the next handful of weeks. Good luck, soldier.

 

Conclusion

Again, hit me up on Twitter with any questions or comments you may have (@BellRoto). I love talking strategy about fantasy baseball.

For those of you looking for roto strategy advice, there should be an article posted nearby with a very similar title but a very different body. I wish you all the best of luck, except of course my fellow writers and editors here at RotoBaller with whom I share a very important set of standings.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

#1 Expert Projections
Save 30% Now
Import Your Leagues
Top-Rated Accuracy
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Aaron Rodgers

Steelers Expect Decision From Aaron Rodgers Before the Draft
Joe Pyfer

Extends His Winning Streak
Israel Adesanya

Loses Fourth Consecutive Fight
Nick Suzuki

Collects Three Points Against Hurricanes
Maycee Barber

Suffers Her First Knockout Loss
Frank Nazar

Scores Twice on Sunday
Alexa Grasso

Scores Highlight-Reel Knockout
Niko Price

Retires After UFC Seattle Loss
Keyonte George

Isaiah Collier Still Out Monday
Michael Chiesa

Victorious In His Retirement Fight
Max Strus

to Sit Out Monday's Game
Jarrett Allen

Won't Play Monday Night
Julian Erosa

Suffers First-Round Knockout Loss
Graham Gano

Giants Releasing Graham Gano
Jaylen Wells

Expected to Miss Rest of Season After Toe Procedure
Lerryan Douglas

Scores First-Round Knockout Win In His UFC Debut
Bub Carrington

Exits Early Sunday Due to Cramping
Will Richard

Won't Suit Up Sunday
Seth Curry

Active Against Nuggets
Quinten Post

Back in Action Sunday Night
Aaron Gordon

Won't Play Sunday
Trent Williams

49ers Making Headway With Trent Williams on Potential Extension
Mykel Williams

Expected to be Back for Training Camp
Nick Bosa

49ers Expect Nick Bosa Back for Training Camp
Myles Garrett

Browns GM Confirms Myles Garrett isn't Being Traded
Quinshon Judkins

Browns Hopeful Quinshon Judkins Will be on the Field "in Some Form" This Spring
Alex Bregman

Clobbers First Two Homers in Sunday's Loss at Wrigley
Tobias Harris

Likely to Sit Out Monday's Game
Yandy Díaz

Yandy Diaz Records Five Hits, Drives in Four in Win Over Cardinals
Ausar Thompson

Uncertain for Monday
Jalen Duren

Unlikely to Play Monday
Trey Murphy III

Out on Sunday
Dejounte Murray

Available Against Rockets
Miles McBride

to See Limited Minutes Sunday
Jaden McDaniels

Won't Play Monday
Anthony Edwards

Listed as Questionable for Monday
Collin Murray-Boyles

Misses Sunday's Action
Brandon Ingram

a Late Scratch on Sunday
RJ Barrett

Good to Go Sunday
Robert Williams III

Ready to Play Sunday
Jeremy Swayman

Remains in Bruins Crease Sunday
TB

Nicholas Paul Available Against Predators
Nikita Kucherov

Remains Out Sunday
Mason Lohrei

Unavailable Sunday
Dmitri Voronkov

Considered Week-to-Week
Artyom Levshunov

Out With Fractured Hand
Sidney Crosby

Practices Fully on Sunday
Geno Smith

"No Doubt" That Geno Smith is Jets' Starting Quarterback
George Kittle

49ers Hopeful George Kittle Will be Ready for Week 1
NFL

Eric McAlister Diagnosed With Fractured Foot
Zach Charbonnet

Could Return to a Wide-Open Backfield
Brian Thomas Jr.

Uncertain Future Could Make Him a Buy-Low Candidate
Kyle Larson

Is Likely to Pay Off for DFS at Martinsville
Luke McCaffrey

Is Luke McCaffrey Still Worth Stashing on Dynasty Benches?
Christopher Bell

Could Have Another Top-10 Performance At Martinsville
William Byron

Is A Threat to Win Again at Martinsville
NFL

Elijah Sarratt's Contested-Catch Ability is a Double-Edged Sword
Chase Elliott

is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Roman Wilson

a Cut Candidate for Dynasty Managers Facing Roster Decisions
Chase Briscoe

has Plenty of Upside for DFS Lineups at Martinsville
Patrick Mahomes

Andy Reid Doesn't Offer Timeline on Patrick Mahomes
Carlos Estévez

Carlos Estevez Unlikely to See High-Leverage Opportunities in Near Future
Tre' Harris

The Buy-Low Window for Tre' Harris Could Be Closing
Dont'e Thornton Jr.

Is Dont'e Thornton Jr. Still Worth Rostering in Dynasty Formats?
Braelon Allen

Has Clear Buy-Low Upside Coming Off a Lost Year
Michael Mayer

Is Michael Mayer a Sneaky Buy-Low Candidate for Dynasty Managers?
KaVontae Turpin

Blocked Off from a Significant Offensive Role in Dallas
Jacob deGrom

Feels "Much Better," Hopeful he Can Start This Week
Cole Hutson

Delivers Two Assists Saturday
Mikhail Sergachev

Ties Mammoth Record With Four Assists
Connor McDavid

Reclaims Scoring Lead With Three-Point Effort
Dmitri Voronkov

Unavailable Sunday
Aliaksei Protas

Suffers Upper-Body Injury Saturday Night
Ty Gibbs

Should Fantasy Managers Roster Ty Gibbs at Martinsville?
Josh Anderson

Limited Due to Illness Saturday
Ryan Preece

Is A Solid DFS Option for Martinsville Lineups
Josh Berry

Could Josh Berry Pay Off for Tournament DFS Lineups At Martinsville?
DAL

Nathan Bastian Makes Early Exit Saturday
Carson Hocevar

May be Too Inconsistent to Start in Martinsville DFS Lineups
Austin Cindric

Is Austin Cindric Worth Rostering for DFS At Martinsville?
Denny Hamlin

the Favorite to Win at Martinsville
Ryan Blaney

Should Contend at Martinsville
Tyler Reddick

Should Come Back Down to Earth at Martinsville
Joey Logano

Will Be Strong at Martinsville
NASCAR

Bubba Wallace Looking to Rebound at Martinsville
Shane Van Gisbergen

Shane van Gisbergen Showing Progress, Qualifies Fifth at Martinsville
Gabriel Vilardi

has a Two-Point Performance
Ivan Demidov

Collects Two More Points on Saturday
Dylan Cease

Fans 12 in Blue Jays Debut on Saturday
Shane Wright

Exits Early Saturday
Connor Zary

Remains Out Saturday Night
Noah Laba

a Game-Time Call Sunday
Andrew Vaughn

Needs Hand Surgery, Expected to be Out 4-6 Weeks
Jacob deGrom

"Confident" he Will Make his Next Start
Jacob deGrom

Scratched From Saturday's Start Due to Neck Stiffness
Jeferson Quero

Brewers Calling Up Catching Prospect Jeferson Quero
Deyvison De Los Santos

Marlins Promote Deyvison De Los Santos to Major Leagues
Shea Langeliers

Hits Two Home Runs on Opening Day
Kevin Gausman

Picks Up No-Decision But Strikes Out 11 on Opening Day
Tanner Bibee

Day-to-Day, Could Make his Next Start
Shane Baz

Orioles Agree to Five-Year Extension
Jeremy Peña

Jeremy Pena Making Season Debut on Friday Against Angels
Tiger Woods

Involved In Rollover Car Crash
Tanner Bibee

Shoulder Issue Not Considered Serious
Joe Pyfer

Set For UFC Seattle Main Event
Israel Adesanya

Returns At UFC Seattle
Maycee Barber

Looks To Extend Her Win Streak To Eight
Alexa Grasso

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Dominic Canzone

a Top Pickup After Two-Homer Game
Niko Price

In Dire Need Of Victory
Michael Chiesa

Set For Retirement Fight
Chase DeLauter

Launches Two Home Runs, Emerges as Top Waiver-Wire Target
Lerryan Douglas

Set For His UFC Debut
Julian Erosa

Looks To Bounce Back
Tanner Bibee

Leaves Opening Day Start Early With Shoulder Inflammation
Cristopher Sánchez

Cristopher Sanchez Makes a Statement on Opening Day With 10 Strikeouts
Kevin McGonigle

has Four Hits in Impressive MLB Debut
Ryan Fox

a High-Upside Value in Houston
Marco Penge

a Boom-or-Bust Option in Houston
Aaron Rai

Looks to Bounce Back in Houston
Jason Day

a Volatile Option at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Harris English

Eyes a Bounce-Back at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Ben Griffin

Looks for Turnaround at the Texas Children's Houston Open
Rickie Fowler

Brings Strong Form Into Texas Children's Houston Open
Ryan Gerard

Can Continue Rolling at Texas Children's Houston Open
Pierceson Coody

Bounces Back at Valspar Championship
Rasmus Hojgaard

Trying to Get Back on Track at Texas Children's Houston Open
Michael Thorbjornsen

Playing Well Heading to Texas Children's Houston Open
Harry Hall

Looking for Consistency at Texas Children's Houston Open
Brooks Koepka

Continues Building Momentum
Scottie Scheffler

Withdraws From Texas Children's Houston Open
Luke Clanton

Might Have a Problem in Houston
Sam Stevens

Happy to See Houston This Week
Keith Mitchell

Tries to Rebound After The Players Championship
Will Zalatoris

Returning This Week at Houston
Wyndham Clark

Trending in the Wrong Direction Heading to Houston
Shane Lowry

Seeking Better Luck in Houston This Weekend
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF