Alex Rodriguez: 2015 Fantasy Baseball Bust

January 2, 2015

Joe Gallina takes a look at New York Yankees third baseman Alex Rodriguez. This former top MLB and Fantasy Baseball pick is now a big draft bust candidate for 2015.

Farewell Derek Jeter and Hellooooo A-Rod!!!

Can there be any worse scenario for Yankee fans? Sadly for Bronx Bomber die hards, Derek Jeter won’t be the opening day Yankee shortstop for the first time since 1996. If that's not bad enough,  Alex Rodriguez and all of his extra baggage will be back in pinstripes when the Yanks’ spring training camp opens in Tampa in a couple of months.

I’m sure that Bronx Bomber aficionados loved not having to read the media’s daily accounts of ARod’s histrionics, but he is already starting to resurface in sports news items even though spring training is still two months away. Reportedly Rodriguez has been working out like a fiend in anticipation of rejoining the Yankee lineup this season, but GM Brian Cashman told reporters that ARod still has some weight to lose before he reports to Tampa in February. He also didn’t “think it's safe to just assume Alex can play third base", (hasn’t Cashman heard about that whole ass u and me thing?) and has since told reporters that Rodriguez would be a full time DH.

Many believe the Yanks, who owe ARod $61 million dollars through the 2017 season, secretly hope that the 39 year old demonstrates that he’s unable to play in spring training, so that their insurance policy would have to pay most of the remaining salary owed to their polarizing and over paid "superstar". The Yanks’ recent signing of third baseman Chase Headley to a four year deal tells us that Rodriguez can't expect to get any more than a few spot starts at first and third base.

What can the Yanks expect from Rodriguez in 2015? Based on his most recent on field efforts, they’ll most likely see a player who had a ton of talent but whose body is betraying him after years of abuse. It’s unlikely Rodriguez will ever approach 30 home runs in a single season again. His days of accumulating HR/FB ratios of 27%, like he posted in 2007, are long gone. Based on his history of PED abuse, those numbers weren’t "real" anyway. (A rate of 9.5% is considered average. Anything over 20% is considered excellent. Rodriguez eclipsed 20% seven times since 2002)

Although he still has enough patience at the plate to maintain a high OBP and BB%, since 2010 the average percentage of balls that he swings at that are outside of the strike zone is 27.45%, much higher than his career rate of 22.3%. In his last two seasons his strike out rates have jumped to 21.9% and 23.8% respectively, well above his 18.3% career average.

In Summary

Cashman has insisted that Rodriguez is “going to compete for at-bats and for a position”.  When it comes to Rodriguez’s 2015 season there are no guarantees. He won’t automatically get a significant number of at bats. There are no promises he will even be Headley's backup  at third base, and there is no telling if he can put up stats anywhere near what you’d expect from a career .299 hitter with 654 lifetime home runs.

The most appealing feature about Rodriguez as a fantasy baseball option is that he may eventually be eligible as both a third and first baseman. Rodriguez is like that annoying pimple that keeps coming back even after you thought you squeezed all of the puss out of it. Judging from his past selfish behavior, Rodriguez will probably refuse to quietly ride into the sunset. My prediction: Rodriguez will eventually spend some time on the DL, come to the plate about 450 times, mostly as a DH, and put up disappointing numbers to the tune of a .256 BA, with 15 HR and 68 RBI. This could be a long season in the Bronx.

Are you an ARod fan? Do you think he can be a sleeper or a bust this upcoming season? Reach out to me on Twitter @joegallina and let me know what you thought of this article.