Alek Thomas Outlook: Fantasy Baseball Champ or Chump?

May 10, 2022

Is Arizona D-Backs OF Alek Thomas a fantasy baseball sleeper, bust, or neither in redraft leagues? Is he another overhyped prospect or will he thrive? Rick Lucks's deep dive into Thomas's 2022 fantasy value.

Two well-regarded prospects were called up over the weekend, but the response to their arrival couldn't be more different. George Kirby put in a scintillating effort in his big league debut for the Mariners, inspiring multiple fantasy-focused articles. Alek Thomas hit a double in his MLB debut for the Diamondbacks, but he hasn't seen as much fanfare.

It's actually kind of surprising, as scouts love Thomas and his skills have a chance of translating well to the fantasy game. Taken 63rd overall in the 2018 Amateur Draft, Thomas came into the season as the 18th best prospect in the sport per MLB Pipeline and 24th per FanGraphs. His FanGraphs scouting grades include a solid 50/55 hit tool, 50/55 raw power, and 60/60 speed: ranking at least MLB average in all of the categories fantasy managers care about.

At age 22 by less than a month, Thomas is also quite young to have earned an MLB opportunity, though his numbers on the farm are exceptional. It feels like the hype train is a little late coming to the station, but its arrival is imminent. Let's take a closer look to see if he might be a fit for your roster.

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Alek Thomas MiLB Domination

Thomas's single game of MLB experience is nowhere near a large enough sample to draw worthwhile conclusions from, but thankfully he has over 600 PAs of high minors experience we can work with. He first cracked Double-A with Amarillo in 2021, slashing a robust .283/.374/.507 with 10 homers and eight swipes over 329 PAs. That's nearly a 20/20 pace over a full season, and players who can do that always command fantasy attention.

Thomas walked a lot with an 11.2 BB% and didn't strikeout often with a 19.8 K%, suggesting an advanced feel for the strike zone that should prevent him from being completely overmatched at the big league level. His 10.6 SwStr% was a little higher than you'd like to see but wasn't bad by any means. His 24.8 FB% was also low considering his 18.5% HR/FB, but the low FB% and foot speed were likely contributors to his .335 BABIP.

The performance earned Thomas a promotion to Triple-A (Reno) where he put up even better numbers: .369/.434/.658 with eight homers and five steals across 166 PAs. His SwStr% jumped to 14%, but the corresponding increase in K% to 20.5 wasn't that bad. He still walked at a solid 9% clip and did major damage with a 29.6% HR/FB, though his 23.5 FB% was again low enough to limit his in-game power.

Thomas returned to Reno to begin the 2022 campaign and his surface stats weren't quite as strong: .277/.362/.495 with four homers and three steals in 116 PAs. However, many of his peripherals improved year over year. For example, he cut his SwStr% down to 9.7%, leading to a 13.8 K% that was nearly equivalent to his improved 11.2 BB%. You also have to think that he deserved better than his .293 BABIP, especially since flies only represented 24.7% of his batted balls. His HR/FB was still excellent at an even 20%.

It's rare for a player so young to have earned a shot in the Show, but Thomas has. His MiLB performance is impeccable, though it should be noted that he played in two of the most hitter-friendly parks to get there. Amarillo sits about 3,600 feet above sea level and is known for strong winds and dry heat that make baseballs fly. The park had a 151 runs factor, 228 HR factor, and 127 hits factor in its inaugural 2019 campaign per MiLB.com.

Likewise, Reno is a classic example of what used to be known as the Pacific Coast League. From 2017-19, the park had a 114 runs factor, 99 HR factor, and 113 hits factor. It still takes talent to put up the numbers Thomas did when he was so young for the level, but the caveat should be considered.

Opportunity in the Desert

With Carson Kelly going on the IL and Daulton Varsho moving from center field to catcher (as unlikely as that sounds), Thomas should get a few weeks to prove that he's ready to stick with the D-Backs as an everyday outfielder. He debuted in the eighth spot in the club's batting order, but it's been fluid enough that promotion should be possible if he performs.

The upside here is 20/20 with a strong average and even stronger OBP, and that alone means that he should probably be rostered in more than 16% of Yahoo! leagues. There are two major obstacles to realizing that upside however. First, Thomas doesn't hit enough flies to produce the power numbers his tools are capable of. A mechanical adjustment that produces more loft could do worlds of good.

Second, Thomas was not an efficient base thief on the farm. He went 8-for-13 at Amarillo (62%), 5-for-9 at Triple-A in 2021 (56%), and 3-for-5 at Triple-A this year (60%). Those success rates would earn a red light on many clubs, but the rebuilding D-Backs might let him learn by doing even if his success rates aren't great. Of course, it's also possible that a coach gets in his ear and helps Thomas become a better base stealer.

The Final Verdict

Thomas is raw and inexperienced, but his natural gifts are undeniable. He has the potential to contribute power and speed to fantasy managers, though growth will likely be necessary on both fronts. That said, his plate discipline and foot speed should at least give him a reasonable average, helping him stay in the majors as he works on other aspects of his game. The upside is too high to ignore at this stage of the season, making him a Champ despite the risks involved.

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