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Kyle Ringstad analyzes the rest-of-season prospects for Atlanta Braves rookie 2B Ozzie Albies and OF Ronald Acuna for the 2018 fantasy baseball season.
No, this isn’t an article analyzing which player has the more uncommon first name in the storied 115-year history of the MLB – Ronald is rarer than Ozzie, by a tally of five to nine for those who are wondering. This article is about taking a stand on one of the Braves two ultra-talented young prospects and their rest-of-season fantasy production.
Ozzie Albies leads off and Ronald Acuna hits second for the upstart Braves, who are unexpectedly leading the National League with a 29-18 record. Albies and Acuña actually played together at Triple-A Gwinnett in 2017, and were close friends and roommates during the season. “I didn’t think how quickly it could happen,” Albies said, “but we had plans to work out every day for our dream to come true, to play together in the big leagues.”
Now, before either of them are old enough to rent a car in most states, they are living their dream. They jump start one of the best offenses in all of baseball that ranks in the top-three in Runs, Runs/Game, Hits, Total Bases, SBs, RBIs, AVG, OBP, SLG, and OPS. After concluding the research for this piece I have to say, the fantasy prospects between these teammates are extremely close – maybe the closest I’ve ever seen in comparing two players. Having the luxury of choosing between these two is like a street racer with a Bugatti and a McLaren at their disposal. You really aren’t going to go wrong choosing either option, but one just might give you that extra MPH edge you need to cross that finish line.
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A New Wizard of Oz?
Note: all statistics and standings valid as of 5/23/18
Ozhaino Jurdy Jiandro “Ozzie” Albies started playing baseball at just six years old in his home country of Curaçao. At just 17 years old, Ozzie was discovered by the Curaçao-based scout Bargello Lodowica. He caught the attention of the Atlanta Braves a short time after and signed as an international free agent on July 2, 2013 for $350,000. He made his professional debut in 2014 with the Gulf Coast Braves and went on to post impressive AVG, OBP, SLG, and SB numbers as he made his way up the minor league ranks.
In 2017, Albies was crushing Triple-A pitching to the tune of .285/.330/.440 with nine home runs and 21 steals before his official call-up to the big league club on August 1, 2017. He continued his hot-hitting in the MLB, swatting .286/.354/.456 with six home runs, 28 RBI, 34 runs scored, and eight steals in just 244 ABs. This year, he is out to prove that not only is he one of the most exciting young players in the major leagues, he’s quickly on his way to becoming one of the sport’s biggest stars, period.
To this point in the season, Ozzie has been the best or second-best second baseman in fantasy baseball. In my standard-scoring points league, Albies slots in at third overall – behind probable 2018 MVP Mookie Betts and perennial MVP Mike Trout. He’s hitting at a respectable .286 AVG, with absolutely incredible .915 OPS, .586 SLG, and .300 ISO numbers. Ozzie is tied for third in the MLB with 14 bombs, second in the MLB with 30 XBH, second in runs scored with 45, and he has also chipped in six steals.
Dig a little deeper, and you’ll find a few interesting nuggets that could shape how the rest of his 2018 season is going to go. His Batting Average on Balls In Play (BABIP) sits at just .291, which is a poor number that suggests his batting average is due to rise a bit as more of his is batted ball events find grass rather than gloves. One discouraging aspect of Ozzie’s fantasy outlook, though, are his advanced hitting metrics. Despite his impressive surface power numbers, he ranks outside the top-100 qualified hitters in Barrels/PA (113th), Barrels/Batted Ball Events (145th), Hard Hit % (266th), and AVG Exit Velocity (255th).
Even Better Than Advertised?
Ronald José Acuña Blanco Jr. followed a very similar path as Albies to the major leagues, as the Venezuelan-born prospect signed with the Atlanta Braves as an international free agent in July 2014. He made his professional debut in Rookie League with the Gulf Coast Braves in 2015, one year after Albies. Over three full years across Rookie League, A, A+, Double-A, and Triple-A ball, Acuña compiled some very impressive numbers. He routinely hit for at least a .300 AVG while registering double-digit SBs and increasing his HR total every year. In his final minor league season, Acuña hit an impressive .344/.393/.548 with a .204 ISO over 243 ABs in Triple-A.
Heading into the 2018 season, Baseball America had Acuña ranked as the number one Major League Baseball prospect. MLB.com ranked him second only to Japanese two-way prodigy Shohei Ohtani – the guy dubbed the “Japanese Babe Ruth” by some scouts. Pretty lofty company to be a part of. Acuña played just 17 games with Triple-A affiliate Gwinnett to begin the season and was quickly summoned to the big league club on April 25th. Upon his promotion, he became the youngest active player in the MLB at the time, ahead of…you guessed it, Ozzie Albies.
Through 25 games Acuña hasn’t let his foot off the gas in the slightest, as he’s slashing .260/.324/.450 with four home runs, 12 RBI, and 16 runs scored. He is also walking at a decent rate (8.1%) and his solid ISO (.190) reaffirms that his power is very real. The only negatives I can see with Acuña’s fantasy outlook are that his strikeout rate (27%) is very high, he has only two steals out of three attempts, and that his BABIP (.328) suggests some negative regression could be coming. However, all of these negatives could be mitigated in the coming weeks, as the numbers could be somewhat skewed due to his limited plate appearances and should be viewed with a slightly different lens because of this.
Who Is More Valuable?
One very interesting aspect when comparing Acuña and Albies is the stark difference in their batted ball profile. Though the sample size of 71 Batted Ball Events is small, Acuña’s metrics far exceed Albies’s. Acuña ranks in the top third of all qualified hitters in Barrels/PA (61st), Barrels/BBE (58th), Hard Hit % (14th), AVG HR Distance (4th), and AVG Exit Velocity (10th). The elite Hard Hit % and AVG Exit Velocity numbers are especially encouraging, as those are statistics normally reserved for the most accomplished hitters in the league. Maintaining these advanced metrics throughout the season will be paramount if he wants to exceed expectations and unlock his immense upside.
The average projections for the two players are scarily similar (averaging ZiPS, Steamer, Depth Charts, and THE BAT):
Albies’s rest-of-season projections: .271/.326/.448, 14 HR, 62 runs scored, 53 RBI, and 15 SB.
Acuña’s rest-of-season projections: .269/.324/.443, 15 HR, 56 runs scored, 51 RBI, and 18 SB.
Given the similarity in their player profile and rest-of-season projections, it is crucial to look at underlying factors to determine who the better fantasy prospect is for the remainder of the 2018 season. One of the main factors to look at when comparing players of different positions is position scarcity. Outfield is one of the deepest positions in fantasy baseball with many fantasy managers having solid top-tier talent as well as depth at the position. This also means there are likely more outfield options on the waiver wire as opposed to second base.
According to current RotoBaller rankings, Acuña is ranked 71st overall and 26th among outfield-eligible players. On the contrary, second base is easily one of the weakest and most shallow positions for fantasy purposes. RotoBaller has Albies ranked 44th overall and sixth among second baseman, though an argument can be made that he deserves to be ranked higher among his positional peers. These rankings signify that Ozzie Albies’ production is that much more valuable, because if you have him you’re one of the only managers in your league that is seeing elite production from the second base position. On the other hand, most competent fantasy baseball managers should be boasting one (if not two) elite outfielders due to the talent pool being that much deeper at the position.
The second factor to consider is sample size. Albies has registered 103 more ABs than Acuña in 2018, and he also had 244 additional ABs at the MLB level in 2017. This means that while projections have the two players producing almost exactly the same numbers, Albies’s current statistics and future projections are much easier to trust because he has proven it over a longer period of time. Lastly, Acuña’s high BABIP and Ozzie’s low BABIP lead me to believe that Ozzie has some good luck coming his way in terms of batted balls falling in for hits instead of outs.
Conclusion
To summarize, position scarcity, a more proven MLB track record, and some luck reversal are the main reasons I would choose second baseman Ozzie Albies over outfielder Ronald Acuña. Still, at the end of the day, choosing between these two studs is like Gordon Ramsey choosing between whipping up a bacon-wrapped Filet Mignon or an immaculate Beef Wellington for one of his cooking shows. Whichever young stud you choose to roster is sure to exceed expectations in 2018 and for many, many years to come. Watch out, MLB.
