FanDuel, DraftKings Showdown Slate - DFS Lineup Picks for Bills vs. Chiefs

January 24, 2021

Jorge's top NFL DFS lineup picks for FanDuel, DraftKings, and the AFC Conference Championships showdown slate featuring the Buffalo and Kansas City. His daily fantasy football advice and value plays.

Championship Weekend has arrived and this article is focusing on the AFC Championship matchup that features the Buffalo Bills and the Kansas City Chiefs. We have seen these two teams square off earlier this season as the Chiefs beat the Bills by a score of 26-17.  This game features an over/under of 50.5 with the Chiefs being favored by 3.5 points.

In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for AFC Championship Slate Showdown on January 24rd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.

If you have any questions you can follow me on Twitter @jorgepucks and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with myself and other NFL DFS analysts any time you'd like!

DFS Quarterbacks

Let's be real, this game is going to come down to the status of Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes left Sunday's game with what it looked like to be a concussion and has entered the NFL concussion protocol. Should Mahomes not be able to go, Chad Henne will get the nod for the Chiefs and quarterback this Chiefs offense. If Henne gets the start, he could be viable for showdown lineups but he will certainly not offer the upside that Mahomes will. Henne came in and completed 75% of his passes in relief of Mahomes but also attempted a deep shot pass that got picked off in the end zone. If Mahomes is good to go, he will provide a huge spark to this Chiefs offense while also providing a solid floor for your fantasy lineups.  Mahomes has hit 20+ DK points in 16 of 17 total games played this season and produced 20.6 DK points against the Bills in their Week 6 matchup. Mahomes completed 80% of his passes that game while tossing for 225 yards and two touchdowns so Mahomes has found success against this Bills Defense before.

Josh Allen has been playing on another level right now and it will be tough to not want to roster him in all formats. Allen had a tremendous season as he has thrown for over 5,000 yards and had 40 passing touchdowns while only tossing 10 interceptions. Allen is throwing the ball around quite often as he has attempted 35+ passes in three out of his last four games and has also tossed multiple touchdowns in three of those four games as well. The matchup against the Chiefs is a solid one as they hold opponents to 245 passing yards per game which is 11th best in the league while also holding opponents to 22.2 points per game which is 12th best in the league. In their lone matchup earlier this season, Allen produced 16 DK points as he threw two touchdown passes and one interception while only throwing for 122 passing yards.

Analysis: If Mahomes is good to go, he is viable in all formats. Allen is also a high upside play that could easily match the output that Mahomes could produce in this same matchup. Fitting them in the same lineup could be viable but it will force you to search for good value from a roster construction standpoint. The quarterbacks would be the preferred option at the MVP position while other players at other positions could have higher upside at the captain slot due to the PPR nature of DK.

DFS Running Backs

Both offenses really rely on the passing game so the running game does tend to get lost in the shuffle at times for both teams. For the Bills, Devin Singletary has absorbed most of the carries once Zack Moss went down with an injury as he was placed on Injured Reserve. Singletary has been used in both the passing game and ground game lately which makes him a standout on both sites, especially if he can find the end zone. Backing up Singletary is T.J. Yeldon but Yeldon only saw two carries for four yards in their game against Baltimore so it doesn't seem like his involvement will lead to much fantasy production. Yeldon has been known to be a solid pass-catching back which makes him a better play on DK than FD if you choose to roster him in hopes he gets a few catches should the Bills fall behind and are forced to throw. The matchup against the Chiefs is as solid as it gets from a running game standpoint as the Chiefs allow 121.5 rushing yards per game to opposing teams, and while the Bills aren't a heavy running team, they have a strong running duo in Allen and Singletary as they run the RPOs almost as good as anyone in the league.

For the Chiefs, Clyde Edwards-Helaire was inactive for their game against the Browns and it doesn't seem as if he will be healthy enough to go this weekend against the Bills. If CEH is out, it seems as if Darrel Williams will be taking over the workload as opposed to Le'Veon Bell. Bell only saw two total carries against the Browns while Williams saw 13 total carries and Williams also saw four targets in the passing game as well. Williams would be the top running back option on this slate and would be a lock on both sites if CEH were to miss the conference championship. If Henne is starting, the Chiefs could rely more on the ground game than in prior weeks which would give a slight bump to Williams overall. The Bill's run defense has not been as good as in years past as they are allowing 123 rushing yards per game to opposing teams.

Analysis: Williams took the majority of the rushing attempts for the Chiefs and looked very solid doing so. With all of the other weapons that the Chiefs have, Williams could go under the radar and is one of the better plays on the entire slate. He and Singletary are viable in both formats and Williams is way underpriced over on FD which makes him a lock for FD lineups.

DFS Wide Receivers

The wide receiver position will be very crucial to nail on this showdown slate. Tyreek Hill and Stefon Diggs are the top receivers to consider as they offer the best floor and best upside at the position for their respective teams. Hill is an explosive receiver that can take any pass to the house and that was on display this year as he hauled in 17 passing touchdowns and had over 1,300 receiving yards. Diggs was one of the highest-targeted receivers this year as he saw 186 total targets and hauled in 141 of those for catches. In addition, Diggs amassed 1,70 receiving yards on the season and had 10 receiving touchdowns. Diggs had a very solid game against the Chiefs in Week 6 as he hauled in six catches for 48 receiving yards and a touchdown while Hill remained relatively quiet as he had three receptions for 20 total yards. The weather certainly played a factor in this game which had a negative effect on the overall passing game for both teams.

Outside of these two stud receivers, there are several other receivers to consider rostering on this slate. Cole Beasley really emerged as a secondary receiving target for this Bills offense and has thrived as the slot receiver for Josh Allen. Beasley saw the second-most targets on the team throughout the regular season and has monster PPR upside. Outside of Beasley, John Brown looks to be healthy and good to go for the playoffs and he offers big-play ability as he has the speed to stretch the field vertically and Gabriel Davis offers a big red zone target for Allen once the Bills get into the red zone. For the Chiefs, a lot of their depth relies on the health of Sammy Watkins. Watkins is a great compliment but he has always dealt with health issues and is currently dealing with a calf issue which kept him out of the divisional round. In his absence, the Chiefs have relied on Mecole Hardman, Demarcus Robinson, and Byron Pringle to be secondary options in the passing game. They all see between three to five targets a game and can pop off for a touchdown so they look to be more tournament type of plays.

Analysis: Diggs and Hill are the best pay up options at the receiver position with Diggs offering the best floor on DK but Hill offering the highest ceiling would benefit him over on FD. Hill has the highest ceiling but a lot of his success this weekend will be tied to if Mahomes will play. Beasley, Brown, and Watkins (if healthy) would be the next tier that could be used in cash games but they do carry some risk. Davis, Hardman, Robinson, and Pringle would all be more tournament plays especially if entering more than one lineup.

DFS Tight Ends

One of the best receiving options on this slate is tight end Travis Kelce. Kelce is the best tight end in the league and is the true top receiving option in this Chiefs offense. He has seen double-digit targets in seven out of his last eight games and has recorded a receiving touchdown in seven out of his last nine games played. During that nine-game stretch,  Kelce has hauled in eight or more receptions in eight of those games and makes for a top play for the captain spot on the slate. On the other side of this game, the Bills rely on Dawson Knox to fill the pass-catching tight end role in their offense.  Knox offers a really low floor since his target volume is inconsistent so he should be rostered in tournaments only.

Analysis: Kelce is a top play on this slate and is viable in all formats on both sites while Knox should be included in your tournament pool but not be a main target to roster.

DFS Defense/Special Teams

This matchup carried a solid overall game total and with both of these offenses being some of the best offensive units in the league, it might be best to fade both defenses in tournaments. If Mahomes does get ruled out, this would be the lone exception where the Bills defense finds themselves back into both cash and tournament consideration. With Chad Henne at the helm, this offense would almost look like a version of the Chiefs offense with Alex Smith at the helm which doesn't scare you from a defensive perspective.

From the kicking game perspective, both Tyler Bass and Harrison Butker have proven to be reliable kickers as they both have above an 80% field goal made percentage on the season and are not afraid to kick it from deep. This game should feature plenty of back and forth opportunities which could lead to both kickers getting chances.

Analysis: If Mahomes is out, the Bills defense moves into consideration but if he is in, it is best to fade both defenses. With it being a potential back and forth kind of game, both kickers are in play since they should get opportunities.

Good luck, RotoBallers, and remember to mix it up and don't be afraid to be different in these large field GPPs!

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