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Who to draft? Justin Carter compares ADP of tight ends Kyle Pitts and Noah Fant to determine which player is a better draft value at TE for the 2021 fantasy football season.
Shh. Listen. The wind laps against the rusted-out husk of a windmill. In the distance, you think you hear footsteps, but it can't be. You're alone here. There is no one left.
This is the barren, post-apocalyptic wasteland that is Tight End World, where barely anyone has survived. Travis Kelce hides in a bunker. George Kittle wanders endlessly through what used to be a parking lot. But there's hope out there. Rumors abound that some new faces are emerging, crawling from the rubbage. They could save us all, if we just believe in them.
Anyway, enough of the metaphors. Tight end is a rough position when it comes to fantasy, but there are some young players who could be emerging at the position. Today, we're going to look at two of them: Kyle Pitts of the Falcons and Noah Fant of the Broncos. Which one is the better pick at their current ADP?
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Where The ADPs Sit
The first thing we want to look at is where the current ADPs of the players sit, because that matters a lot when deciding who to draft. For example, if Pitts saw his ADP rise to, like, 1.12 or something in redraft, this article would be pretty short. I'd say "don't use a first-round pick on a rookie tight end in redraft, just wait and take Noah Fant later on."
So, what are their current ADPs?
According to FantasyPros and their Half PPR ADP, Pitts is going as the TE4 right now with an overall ADP of 47th, which puts him at the end of the fourth round. Fant is going as the TE7, with an overall ADP of 77th. That puts Fant as a seventh-round pick.
So, that leaves us with this question to answer: would you rather draft Kyle Pitts in the fourth, or wait and take Fant in the seventh?
One thing that needs to be considered when making that decision? What other players can you get around there.
Drafting Pitts at his ADP means drafting him around where Adam Thielen, Cooper Kupp, James Robinson, and Kareem Hunt are going. So, you're missing out on a good receiver, but at running back, you are missing out on guys who aren't in the top-20 at the position.
As for Fant, picking him at his ADP is taking him over running backs like Damien Harris, Leonard Fournette, and Melvin Gordon, and over wide receivers like Tee Higgins and JuJu Smith-Schuster.
That information might make your decision easier? You might be thinking "alright, if that's who's available at the end of the fourth, I'm just going to take the risk on Pitts."
But, let's get some more information first.
Is Kyle Pitts The Rookie Hero We Need?
Kyle Pitts is the most exciting tight end prospect since...I don't even know. There's plenty of talk from reputable analysts about how Pitts is the greatest tight end prospect ever. PFF already ranks him as the NFL's fourth-best tight end, despite the fact that Pitts has played exactly one NFL game.
Why all the hype?
Well, maybe his PlayerProfiler workout metrics can be a clue:
Those are very, very good numbers.
At Florida, Pitts was the ultimate mismatch. Able to play in-line, in the slot, and split out wide, Pitts' mix of size and speed made him impossible to stop. He caught 43 passes in just eight games, finishing with 770 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Doing that kind of damage in so few games plus having that athletic profile? Well, you can see why Pitts is expected to be so good.
Is there something to be concerned about?
Well, there's the whole "rookie tight end" thing. Tight end is an incredibly tough position to transition to in the NFL. Since 2010, just two rookie tight ends have finished in the top-12 at the position in fantasy, and one of those was Rob Gronkowski.
With Pitts, you're betting that he's a historical outlier when you're drafting him as the fourth tight end off the board.
Now, if any tight end is the guy you bet on to be that kind of outlier, Pitts is the guy. With Julio Jones gone, Pitts is going to see a lot of time out wide at receiver, which should help his numbers. But we can't just ignore the troubling history at the position, right?
Noah Fant Taking A Leap SZN?
So, what about Noah Fant? Like Pitts, he entered the league with a lot of hype because of his physical build. Will he put everything together this year? Should you draft someone with some actual NFL experience over drafting a rookie?
Depends a lot on what you want out of the tight end position.
Fant is probably the safer option over Pitts because he's played 31 NFL games already. Last year, he saw 93 targets, catching 62 of them for 673 yards and three touchdowns.
The touchdown numbers are lower than you'd like, but getting a guy who'll flirt with 100 targets at a position where the fantasy value dries up quickly is really, really nice.
And look, PlayerProfiler's "best comparable" tool says that Kyle Pitts' workout metrics are best comparable to Fant. In fact, Fant's numbers might look more impressive than Pitts' do:
At some point, workout metrics mean nothing if you don't put all that potential to use.
Fant seems like he's on the way to fulfilling a lot of that promise, though his ceiling is pretty clearly not as high as Pitts because, well...Kyle Pitts, y'all.
Some Conclusions
So, after all of this, what should fantasy managers do? Take Pitts at his ADP? Wait and take Fant instead?
It probably depends on how chalky the fantasy draft board goes. If Pitts is on the board late in the fourth and the players also available are the ones who are currently around his ADP, I'm taking Pitts.
But drafts are weird. Maybe there's a quarterback run. Maybe a few people take some risks on some unexpected guys.
If a top-20 running back happens to still be on the board in the fourth, then I'm going to take that player and after that, I'll take someone like Fant later on.
Pitts definitely has the better ceiling. I don't think you can deny that. But Fant's a fine option if you see a non-TE who you really need to have.
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