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Brandon Murchison analyzes fantasy football draft strategy at the running back position by comparing the ADP of RB Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. Which RB should be drafted first based on potential return on investment for the 2019 NFL season?
The world of fantasy football comes with many peaks and valleys as trends continue to come and go. One of those is the importance of the running back position and how you should attack it during your drafts. With the rising popularity of "Zero RB" over the past several seasons, many owners would forego selecting this core position early on. This strategy became popular as the trend of the NFL geared towards high passing volume offenses.
As trends become popular, there will always be an uprising. That is exactly what we are seeing over the last couple of seasons as the importance of the "bell-cow" RB is proving to be vital to fantasy success. Now you could argue that players like Damien Williams and Justin Jackson were as important to owners winning titles in 2018. But truth be told, if you were well-stocked at the position early on in drafts then you stayed in title contention throughout the season. Keep that in mind as you begin to prepare for upcoming drafts. You will see that after the first big run at the position, the talent level at RB drops rapidly in the mid to late rounds. Don't be left hanging out to dry without getting yours early.
Two of those backs that you will be looking at in the second round will be Dalvin Cook and Nick Chubb. One player has been through two injury-plagued seasons (Cook) while the other finished the 2019 season on a high note (Chubb). The question is, which player should you go with if presented the chance at both in your draft? That is what we will find out as I dive into the numbers and let you know who to select in drafts this season.
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Dalvin Cook (RB, MIN)
ADP: 17 (RB11)
Playing in just 13 games into his third NFL season, Cook is becoming a player that is losing the faith of many fantasy owners. But there is a silver lining to him as an option. When he is healthy, he has handled a majority of the workload in the Vikings backfield (61 percent of the team's designed runs). After Week 12 last season, Cook was seventh in scoring at the position through the remainder of the year. Add in his semi-consistent value as a presence out of the backfield (24 receptions in the final six games), Cook has shown that he has what it takes to be that all-around three-down back that many fantasy owners covet.
But the key to Cook will always be tied to his ability to stay healthy. He is now a full year removed from the torn ACL and with the Vikings leaning towards becoming a more run-based attack, he is primed for a breakout. Facing the third easiest schedule for RBs should also add intrigue to him this upcoming season. With Latavius Murray now gone to New Orleans, Cook has a firm grasp on this job and should see a lion's share of the volume in this backfield. If he can manage to play a full season, the argument could be made that Cook could ascend into the upper echelon of RBs in fantasy football.
Nick Chubb (RB, CLE)
ADP: 18 (RB12)
It was somewhat of a tale of two seasons for Chubb in his rookie season. With only 16 carries in the first six games, he found himself on the chopping block of many fantasy teams. But once he assumed the lead back role in Week 7, Chubb became one of the more dominate backs in football (finishing as RB8 over that time). His 5.2 YPC and 2.41 yards after contact both ranked inside the Top 10 at the position, proving that Chubb was a hard player to bring down. The only knock on Chubb is his lack of involvement in the passing game (20 receptions). With the Browns looking to move into an "Air Raid" type offense, his potential could take a hit unless the targets rise.
Chubb will begin the 2019 season as the unquestioned starter for the Browns until Week 9. That is the time in which Kareem Hunt will be eligible to return from suspension and could prove to be a headache for fantasy owners everywhere. We have seen what both players can do in terms of production in fantasy. The question will be how the workload will be shared once Hunt returns? My guess is that you will see a pretty even split between the two, hindering Chubb's value down the stretch. If he can again prove to be dominant over the first half of the season, he could put pressure on the coaching staff to keep him on the field in order to stay competitive. But the nuisance that is Hunt will be on the mind of many fantasy owners during drafts, causing him to slide down draft boards.
Verdict
The decision between these two RBs could prove to be a tough one in Round 2. Both players are great in their own right and do things very well but for me, the choice is clear. Even though there is an injury history that clouds Cook's past, he is in line for a highly productive 2019. He has no obstacles in his way in terms of a shared backfield and has a higher ceiling in PPR formats with his abilities as a pass catcher. The offense for the Vikings will be geared more for Cook to become successful, while the Browns high octane passing attack will cost Chubb opportunities at times.
In conclusion, if you are staring at these two players in your draft and having a hard time with your decision, go with Cook and enjoy the 2019 breakout.
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