ADP Cost Analysis: Trey Mancini vs. Christian Walker

First basemen Trey Mancini and Christian Walker are similar in fantasy baseball value but have a wide gap in ADP. Frank Ammirante examines the difference between these 1B to determine which is the better draft option for 2020.

One of the most important skills in a fantasy draft is the ability to identify a player with similar value at a lower ADP. When you're able to find similar production at a lower cost, this allows you to use an earlier pick to fill out other areas of your roster, resulting in a stronger fantasy team.

The focus of this article will be on two first basemen who can provide power. One player is coming off a career year and might experience some regression, while the other player showed flashes of potential who has room for growth in 2020. Trey Mancini (104 NFBC ADP) and Christian Walker (203 NFBC ADP) are two first basemen with potential to return similar value, but different ADPs. Mancini demonstrated his ability to combine power with contact and Walker excelled at barreling the baseball. The risk with Mancini is that his line-drive approach could result in fewer home runs, while Walker's superior exit velocity suggests we could see an increase in power output. 

The disparity between these two skillsets is not worth the 99-pick difference in their current draft positions. Mancini has a weak supporting cast, which could hinder his counting stats. Walker is hitting in an improved lineup that should provide plenty of opportunities for run production.  Let's take a deep dive to demonstrate why Walker is the better value at his current ADP.

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Counting Stats

It’s evident that Mancini had the better fantasy season due to his superior AVG, R, HR, and RBI. He was able to accumulate more counting stats partly because he occupied a prime spot in the O’s batting order, with 678 of his 679 PA in the two, three, or four slots.  It’s likely that Mancini sees some decline here since the Orioles lost a key piece to their lineup in Jonathan Villar, who was able to set the table for the O’s as their leadoff hitter.

Conversely, Walker hit in the fifth, sixth, or ninth (as a pinch-hitter) slot in 342 of his 603 PA, which limited his counting stats. If Walker is able to cement his position in the five-hole, we could see him approach 100 RBI this season. The Diamondbacks also added a stud in Starling Marte, which bodes well for Walker’s RBI production. Lastly, we should draw attention to Walker’s advantage in stolen bases, particularly due to the current climate of speed scarcity. Those extra seven stolen bases would go along way in providing more value for your fantasy team.

Expected Stats

Here’s where Walker starts to shine. While Mancini still has the better expected AVG, Walker is superior in xSLG and xwOBAcon. This is because the Diamondbacks’ slugger is able to generate harder contact than his counterpart in Baltimore. It’s generally a strong strategy to target Statcast darlings in your fantasy drafts because these are the types of players that usually have some untapped power potential.

Batted Ball Profile

Walker has a significant advantage in launch angle and fly ball rate, which bodes well for his power outlook. He hits the ball harder than Mancini, so it’s likely that with similar PAs, Walker would finish with more home runs. Mancini is more of a line-drive hitter, so we can probably pencil him in for the better AVG. The main takeaway here is that barring a change in approach, it’s likely that we’ll see a decline in Mancini’s power output, while Walker's home run total should increase.

2020 Projection

The Orioles project to be one of the worst lineups in baseball, so we can expect a decline in counting stats for Mancini, along with similar AVG production due to his strong line-drive rate. Walker’s batted-ball profile suggests that there is some untapped power potential, so it’s safe to say that with enough PAs, he will eclipse the 30-HR plateau. Walker also has a chance to beat Mancini in counting stats, due to the addition of Startling Marte in Arizona, and the loss of Villar in Baltimore. 

Conclusion

According to Rotoballer's Expected Draft Value, my projection for Mancini would yield a value of about 107.5, which is right around his ADP. Mancini is a fair value. However, Walker’s value would be approximately 84.8, which is over 100 picks earlier than his current ADP. Even if Walker doesn't meet his projection, there is plenty of room for profit.

While Mancini should be a safe bet for a high AVG, it’s possible that his 2019 total will end up as his career high in HRs. You would be wise to chase Walker’s power upside in the 200 range. If you’re in an OBP league, this decision becomes even easier, due to Walker’s superior walk rate. It’s also important to remember that Walker is entering only his second full season in the big leagues. Late bloomers are often faded in fantasy drafts because many have a hard time trusting in their unexpected breakouts. However, judging by Walker’s ability to barrel the baseball, it’s likely that the best is yet to come.

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