RADIO
Every fantasy owner has a blind spot or team(s) that they do not know as much about as they should. Bad teams on the West Coast are likely examples for owners based on the East Coast, as the games are on so late that the weaker teams are just not worth staying up for. This has become prevalent enough that such teams are often mined as a source of sleepers on Draft Day.
I'm guilty of that myself, so I know more about the Padres than I need to. Somehow, the Houston Astros slipped through the cracks for me. I know their bigger names, but not enough about them to formulate an informed fantasy opinion.
After doing some research, I decided to share my findings with the rest of the class. Care to join me for a closer look at promising young players Carlos Correa and George Springer, both of whom are going off the board in the first three rounds of fantasy drafts?
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The Fantasy Jury is Out
Carlos Correa (SS, HOU) ADP: 17.3
It says a lot about the current golden era of shortstops that one can hit .274/.361/.451 with 20 dingers and 13 steals and actually disappoint his fantasy owners. Correa hit more homers in roughly two-thirds of the PAs in 2015, while his speed fell precipitously from the 32 swipes he recorded across three levels that year. Is there hope for a rebound?
There is always hope for a 23-year old to improve, but it does not seem like the most likely outcome in 2017. His power in 2015 was the result of a 24.2 percent HR/FB that predictably regressed last season to a more sustainable 16.5 percent rate. Considering that the league's HR/FB increased last year, Correa could lose more of his HR/FB if overall homers return to their historic rate.
That would devastate Correa's roto value, as he rarely hits fly balls. His 29.1 percent FB% was low in 2015, and it actually declined to 27.4 percent last year. He also doesn't pull too many of them (13.2 percent last year), and Houston is a terrible park to try to hit one out to dead center. Last year's 20 HR may have been more of a ceiling than a floor.
Correa's strong plate discipline (11.4 percent walk rate, 29.4 percent O-Swing%) gave him many opportunities to run, but he only attempted 16 steals. The MLB sample trumps the minor league one, so owners should only expect a handful of bags this year. His .328 BABIP also has room to decline, as his plus LD% of 22.4 percent may not be sustainable while his .214 BABIP on fly balls seems a tad high. His slot in the middle of Houston's order is nice, but not enough to justify a borderline first round price tag. He's still a work in progress.
Verdict: Chump
George Springer (OF, HOU) ADP: 34.8
Springer led baseball with 744 PAs last year, which he used to compile a .261/.359/.457 triple slash line with 29 big flies and nine steals. The steals are almost certainly not repeating, as his 10 CS and sub-50 percent success rate are grounds for an immediate red light. If you draft Springer, you should expect a slugger and nothing more.
Springer can murder baseballs, as last year's 19.7 percent HR/FB was under his career rate of 21.4 percent. Statcast buys into his pop too, as both his 11.5 percent rate of Barrels per Batted Ball Event and 47 total Barrels rank well above average. A 40 HR campaign is possible if everything breaks right.
Yet it probably won't. Much like Correa, Springer does not hit enough balls into the air (31.5 percent FB%). The true power breakout everyone knows he is capable of depends on an adjustment that produces additional airborne contact, something most players struggle to achieve. His current price suggests bankable power, but it really is not if Springer doesn't improve his FB% or lead the league in PAs again.
Speaking of which, why does Springer bat leadoff? The first slot is meant for an OBP machine with little pop, as the value of leadoff homers is decreased by a general lack of baserunners. Springer walks enough (11.8 percent BB%, 27.2 percent O-Swing%) but hits too many solo shots as a leadoff man. If only the Astros had an elite contact guy with the wheels to steal 30+ bases every year. Or a shortstop with a slightly better OBP than Springer but much less power. As it stands, I can't buy Springer at his current cost.
Verdict: Chump
