X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ADP Champ or Chump Spotlight: Gleyber Torres

Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the prospects of New York Yankees 2B/SS Gleyber Torres in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Does he project to provide value based on current ADP?

When people think of Gleyber Torres, the first thing that springs to mind is the fact that he completely obliterated the Baltimore Orioles in 2019 to the tune of .394/.467/1.045 with 13 HR. His supporters claim that the Orioles are still terrible, so Torres will be able to fatten up his stat line again. His detractors argue that performing that well against a single team is a fluke and shouldn't be expected regardless of how terrible the Orioles may be. In truth, we should be analyzing Torres's performance, not the Orioles, in predicting his 2020 fantasy value.

Torres has about as much prospect pedigree as an owner could hope for, ranking as baseball's second-ranked prospect per MLB Pipeline before 2018. He lost out to Shohei Ohtani, a player who already had a successful professional career in Japan at that point. The 23-year-old also has two strong big league seasons under his belt, first slashing .271/.340/.480 with 24 HR in 484 PAs in 2018 and then hitting .278/.337/.535 with 38 big flies in 2019.

Fantasy owners are expecting big things if his 29.4 ADP is any indication. Torres is definitely a good player, but can he live up to being a top-30 fantasy asset?

Be sure to check all of our fantasy baseball lineup tools and resources:

 

Gleyber Days on the Farm

It's tempting to look at any 23-year-old's MiLB performance to try and substantiate his big league numbers, but it doesn't work in the case of Torres. The Yankees promoted him aggressively after acquiring him from the Cubs, giving him 139 PAs at Double-A (Trenton) and 152 PAs split between two seasons at Triple-A (Scranton/Wilkes-Barre). That's not much of a sample size to work with.

Furthermore, his MiLB stat lines bear little resemblance to the player he's been in the Bronx. Torres hit .273/.367/.496 with five homers and five steals in 139 PAs at Double-A (Trenton), walking nearly as often as he struck out in the process. He hit .309/.406/.457 with two homers and two steals in 96 PAs at Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre that season, but a sliding injury cut his season short. He briefly returned to Triple-A in 2018, hitting .347/.393/.510 with a homer and a steal in 56 PAs, but was soon summoned to the Show. There's little evidence for the power hitter Torres has become in these numbers.

 

Digging Deeper into Torres' Pop

With little MiLB data to work with, we'll have to use Statcast to try to estimate Torres's true talent. Torres posted an impressive 17.9% HR/FB in 2018 and improved it to 21.5% last season, but his Statcast power indicators weren't as strong in either campaign. His 91.2 mph average airborne exit velocity in 2018 was a smidgeon below-average that season, while an increase to 92.8 mph last season was only barely above. His overall exit velocity totals of 88.7 mph (2018) and 89 mph (2019) tell a similar story.

Likewise, both his 9.2% rate of Brls/BBE in 2018 and his 10.1% mark a season ago were more good than great. If you prefer Brls per plate appearance instead of batted ball event, Torres's 6% rate in 2018 was only average while his 7.1% rate in 2019 was above-average but not elite. Here are all of the players who finished with the same Brls/PA mark in 2019:

Muncy's a nice guy to see, but the rest of them are a little worrying to see for a guy taken inside the top-30.

Of course, this doesn't mean that Torres will suddenly turn pumpkin and give his owners nothing. Torres plays in a very hitter-friendly park, hits a lot of fly balls (41.9 FB% last season), and pulled a whopping 27.7% of his flies last season. The combination makes him what this author likes to call a compiler: a guy who only has league-average oomph but hits 25-30 HR anyway due to his sheer volume of fly balls.

Torres was also buried in a deep Yankees lineup last season, finishing with only 96 runs and 90 RBI despite nearly hitting 40 bombs. Roster Resource currently projects Torres to hit third in 2020, a slot that would likely allow him to pace for more R+RBI even if his HR totals decline. In short, Torres is likely to continue to produce homers for fantasy owners moving forward, but is unlikely to approach a 40 HR pace again.

 

Does Torres Bring Anything Else to the Table?

Much analysis about Torres talks about batting average or stolen base upside to go with his homer totals, but this author doesn't really see either. Some analysts see upside in Torres's .296 BABIP last year considering his .321 mark in 2018, but the latter mark was predicated on a 24.5 LD% that likely won't repeat. For reference, it was a league-average 20.9% last year. All of the fly balls that are good for his power numbers are bad for his average, and his 8.5 IFFB% suggests that he may have a little bit of a pop-up problem to sort out if he wants to be a batting average asset.

Similarly, Torres's 21.4 K% looks solid until you consider the 13.2 SwStr% and 35.1% chase rate that accompanied it last year. He struck out 25.2% of the time in 2018 with similar underlying metrics (34.4% chase, 14 SwStr%), and a rate between his 2018 and 2019 figures is likely the best projection for 2020. Notably, Baseball Savant's xBA suggests that Torres deserved to hit .262 last season and .257 the season before, so there is at least as much batting average downside as upside in his profile.

Quite frankly, this author has no idea why some owners see SB potential in Torres. He was never a huge base thief on the farm, and his Statcast Sprint Speed declined from 27.1 ft./sec in 2018 to just 26.5 ft./sec last season. That's below the MLB average! Considering his move to the heart of the Yankees order rather than the periphery of it, it wouldn't be surprising if manager Aaron Boone gave him a red light when the likes of Aaron Judge or Giancarlo Stanton are up, either.

 

Conclusion

Torres looks like a good bet to reach 25-30 HR with a batting average that won't hurt you in 2020, and his prime slot in one of MLB's best lineups should help him punch above his weight in R+RBI. That's a valuable fantasy asset, but he may not justify his current draft day cost without repeating last year's homer totals or adding average and/or steals to his line. Considering where he is going in drafts, you might be better off taking Pete Alonso (26.2 ADP) if you want a 40-HR pace or Jose Altuve (31.8) if you want a middle infielder who contributes across the board.

Verdict: Chump (based on high draft day cost and subpar Statcast metrics)

More 2020 Fantasy Baseball Advice




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Compare Any Players
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Griffin Conine

To Have Shoulder Surgery On Tuesday
Luke Keaschall

Twins Prospect Luke Keaschall Suffers Broken Forearm
Logan Gilbert

Leaves Friday's Start With Forearm Tightness

Vikings Select Tai Felton To Finish Day 2

Seahawks Select Quarterback Jalen Milroe With The 92nd Pick Overall

Browns Select Dillon Gabriel 94th Overall

Packers Pick Savion Williams At No. 87 overall

Steelers Snag Kaleb Johnson In Round 3

Broncos Select Wide Receiver Pat Bryant With The 74th Overall Pick

Texans Select Jaylin Noel With 79th Pick

Lions Select Wide Receiver Isaac TeSlaa With The 70th Overall Pick
Jack Leiter

To Start On Sunday

Patriots Add Wide Receiver Kyle Williams In Round 3

Browns Draft Harold Fannin Jr. With 67th Pick
Garrett Mitchell

Makes Early Exit
Luke Keaschall

Removed Early On Friday
Blake Snell

Likely Avoids Major Injury
Cole Ragans

Dealing With Mild Groin Strain

Broncos Add RJ Harvey To Backfield With 60th Pick

Raiders Select Jack Bech With 58th Pick

Chargers Add Wide Receiver Tre Harris In Round 2
Detroit Lions

Lions Acquire 57th Pick From Broncos

Seahawks Draft Elijah Arroyo 50th Overall
Carolina Panthers

Panthers Acquire 51st Pick From Broncos
Arizona Cardinals

Cardinals Snag Will Johnson At No. 47

Jets Add A Pass-Catcher With Mason Taylor At No. 42

Rams Select Terrance Ferguson With 46th Pick
Houston Texans

Texans Acquire 48th Pick From Raiders, Draft Aireontae Ersery

Saints Snag Tyler Shough At No. 40
Brenton Doyle

Out For Personal Reasons On Friday
Brandin Podziemski

Not On Injury Report For Game 3
Jimmy Butler III

Warriors Optimistic About Jimmy Butler III Playing Saturday
Jae'Sean Tate

To Remain Out Saturday
Jock Landale

Unavailable For Game 3
Terry Rozier

Out On Saturday
Jrue Holiday

Ruled Out For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Orlando
Kevin Love

To Miss Saturday's Game
Jaylen Brown

Available For Friday Night's Game 3 Against Magic
Gary Payton II

Iffy For Saturday's Action
Jayson Tatum

Officially Available On Friday For Game 3 Against Magic
Will Smith

Back From Injury On Friday
Luke Kennard

Questionable For Game 4 On Saturday
Darius Garland

Listed As Questionable For Game 3
Ja Morant

To Miss Game 4 On Saturday
Rui Hachimura

Available For Game 3 In Minnesota
Aaron Ekblad

Available To Return Saturday
Erik Swanson

Ryan Burr Progressing
Daulton Varsho

To Return On Tuesday At The Latest
Max Scherzer

Takes Positive Step On Friday
Aleksander Barkov

Questionable For Saturday
Gabriel Landeskog

Set For Larger Role In Game 4
Calvin Pickard

To Start Game 3 For Oilers
Randy Arozarena

Resting For First Time This Year
Jonas Siegenthaler

To Play Limited Minutes In Game 3
MLB

Red Sox-Guardians Game Postponed On Friday
Luke Hughes

Remains Out On Friday
MLB

Tigers-Orioles Postponed On Friday
Patrik Laine

A Game-Time Decision Friday
Yainer Diaz

Out On Friday Against Royals
Iván Herrera

Ivan Herrera Hopes To Start Rehab Assignment Next Week
Salvador Perez

Sitting Out For First Time This Season
Jaylen Brown

Questionable For Game 3 On Friday
Brendan Donovan

Back In Action On Friday
Jimmy Butler III

Could Miss Game 3 On Saturday
Coby Mayo

Getting On A Roll At Triple-A
Carlos Prates

Looks To Remain Undefeated In The UFC
Ian Machado Garry

Set For UFC Kansas City Main Event
Cade Cunningham

Collects Double-Double In Loss
Jalen Brunson

Drops 30 Points In Game 3
Karl-Anthony Towns

Leads All Scorers In Game 3 Victory
Zhang Mingyang

Scheduled For Co-Main Event
Anthony Smith

Set For His Final UFC Bout
David Onama

Set For Featherweight Bout
Giga Chikadze

Looks To Bounce Back
Abus Magomedov

Looks For His Third Consecutive Win
Michel Pereira

Returns To Action At UFC Kansas City
Nicolas Dalby

An Underdog At UFC Kansas City
Randy Brown

A Favorite At UFC Kansas City
Andre Muniz

Set To Open Up UFC Kansas City Main Card
Ikram Aliskerov

Looks To Get Back In The Win Column
Sergei Bobrovsky

Shuts Out Lightning In Game 2
Cam Fowler

Finishes Thursday's Win With Five Points
Robert Thomas

Posts Four Assists In Game 3 Win
Pavel Buchnevich

Celebrates Hat Trick During Four-Point Performance
Dylan DeMelo

Battling An Illness
Marcus Johansson

Exits Early Thursday
Aleksander Barkov

Hurt In Game 2
Jrue Holiday

Tagged As Questionable For Friday
Jayson Tatum

Likely Out Again On Friday
Anthony Cirelli

Good To Go Thursday
Andrei Vasilevskiy

Looks To Bounce Back In Game 2
Rasmus Ristolainen

To Miss Training Camp
Jonas Siegenthaler

Returns To Practice
Aliaksei Protas

Traveling With Capitals
Gabriel Vilardi

Still Out On Thursday
Max Pacioretty

Set To Join Maple Leafs Lineup For Game 3
Cam Davis

Looking For Better Fortunes At TPC Louisiana
Adam Svensson

Making Third Apperence At Zurich Classic
Max Greyserman

Aiming For Similar Success At TPC Louisiana
Lee Hodges

A High-Upside Player In New Orleans
PGA

Nico Echavarria Looks To Ride Off Of Elite Putting In New Orleans
Gary Woodland

A Player Worth Watching In New Orleans
Max McGreevy

Returns To The Zurich Classic Of New Orleans
Rasmus Hojgaard

In Search Of Consistency Ahead Of Zurich Classic
Sam Stevens

A Boom-Or-Bust Candidate In New Orleans
Nicolai Hojgaard

Looking To Turn Season Around At Zurich Classic
Christiaan Bezuidenhout

Looks To Sway A Hot Putter In Teams Favor At Zurich Classic
Akshay Bhatia

Looking To Bounce Back At TPC Louisiana
Carson Young

Looks To Turn Things Around At TPC Louisiana
Erik Van Rooyen

Looking For Momentum In Louisiana
Andrew Novak

Making Start At TPC Louisiana After Near Miss At Harbour Town
Ben Griffin

Making Third Career Start At Zurich Classic
Taylor Moore

Competing With A New Teammate In New Orleans
Wyndham Clark

Making Return To New Orleans
Kurt Kitayama

Teeing It Up Again In New Orleans
Collin Morikawa

Back At Zurich Classic For Fifth Time
Thomas Detry

Making Third Appearance At New Orleans Team Event
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF