ADP Champ or Chump: Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Webb, and Maikel Garcia

March 15, 2024

Are Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Webb, and Maikel Garcia fantasy baseball sleepers, busts, or neither? Rick Lucks' deep dive into the 2024 fantasy value of three players.

Welcome to another year of Champ or Chump! In this column, we take deep dives into fantasy baseball player profiles to determine whether the player is a "Champ" worth adding or a "Chump" better left to someone else. We'll look at each player's NFBC ADP and whether they will likely justify their cost in this preseason version.

We'll also cover three players at a time, providing more of a "quick hit" format than the in-season version. We'll still provide a complete picture of every player covered.

Let's begin with a closer look at Giancarlo Stanton, Logan Webb, and Maikel Garcia.

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Giancarlo Stanton (OF, NYY) ADP: 309.71

Stanton struggled through an injury-marred 2023 season, slashing .191/.275/.420 with 24 homers over 415 PAs. Fantasy managers are dismissing the 34-year-old as injury-prone and over-the-hill, but that's not entirely true. Yes, he's injury-prone. No, he isn't "done."

Stanton has one signature skill: he hits the ball harder more consistently than anyone else. Baseball Savant's hardest-hit ball lists are dominated by Stanton. If we want to know if Stanton still possesses this skill, we need only consult the 2023 leaderboard:

Stanton appears six times in the top 13. The only other players appearing more than once are sure first-rounders Ronald Acuna Jr. and Shohei Ohtani, putting Stanton's contact quality in elite company.

Stanton's special contact didn't show in last season's numbers, but it should have. His .219 expected batting average wasn't good, but it's much better than his actual average of .191. Similarly, his .466 xSLG bested his actual slugging percentage by more than 40 points.

There were even signs of growth in Stanton's game. His 44.4 FB% was his highest since 2015, giving him more chances to go yard. He also logged 33 games in the outfield, so fantasy managers don't need to clog a utility slot to roster him.

The Yankees lineup is as powerful as ever and Stanton is expected to occupy a key role within it, boosting his counting stats. Any player with playing time and a chance to slug 40 homers is a Champ with an ADP outside the top 300.

Logan Webb (SP, SF) ADP: 61.24

Webb was great in 2023, pitching to a 3.25 ERA over 216 innings. Fantasy managers look at that shiny ERA and say, "ace." Sadly, a closer examination reveals that Webb's performance is likely unsustainable.

Webb only posted 11 wins against 13 losses last season, suggesting he won't get the team support fantasy managers would like. The team made some additions in Matt Chapman, Jorge Soler, and Jung Hoo Lee, but Chapman and Soler will see their power evaporate in San Francisco while Lee faces a huge adjustment. The Giants offense is still bad.

Next, Webb's stuff is nowhere near ace quality. His most-thrown pitch was his change, posting a 44 Zone%, 50.9% chase rate, and 12.8 SwStr% in 2023. The chase rate was sexy, but it still failed to generate swing and miss.

Webb's sinker was generally a strike with a 64.3 Zone%, but its 3 SwStr% was embarrassing. His third and final pitch is a slider that fails to impress with its 39.3 Zone%, 24.8% chase rate, or 9.7 SwStr%.

The result was a below-average 22.8% K%. If your league uses K/9 or imposes an innings cap, Webb's volume of low-K innings actively hurts you. Webb offset that somewhat with his 3.6% BB% last year, but all major projection systems agree it'll regress.

Similarly, Webb probably won't enjoy the defensive support he did last season. The Giants compiled 15 Outs Above Average in 2023, and Webb benefited from nine of them. That tied for fifth among all MLB pitchers.

Lest you think that Webb has some sort of contact suppression ability, he doesn't. Look at this:

An incredible 94% of pitchers allowed less hard contact than Webb, explaining how he allowed a .302 BABIP despite his defensive support. The result was a 3.66 xERA much closer to what we should expect from him in 2024.

Webb doesn't throw strikeouts, won't get much run support, and is not guaranteed to provide ratio help. He's an easy Chump at the price point of an ace.

Maikel Garcia (3B/SS, KC) ADP: 227.25

Garcia had a successful rookie campaign in 2023, hitting .272/.323/.358 with four homers and 23 steals in 515 PAs. The 24-year-old also possesses a solid prospect pedigree, entering the season as ESPN's 78th-ranked prospect and FanGraphs' 67th. Yet he's an afterthought on draft day because he doesn't have power and plays for the Royals.

Garcia maxed out at 11 HRs in a single season in MiLB (2022), and his 27.4 FB% as a Royal was way too low for a slugger. His 3.9% rate of Brls/BBE was also pathetic, though his average airborne exit velocity of 95.5 mph ranked a respectable 49th among qualified hitters when he hit something in the air. If you're looking for power, look elsewhere.

If you're looking for anything else, Garcia has you covered. Let's start with steals. Since the pandemic, Garcia went 35-for-41 on SB attempts (85% success) in 2021, 39-for-47 (83%) in 2022, and 27-for-37 (73%) last season. He was 23-for-30 (77%) at the MLB level last year, and his 28.2 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed suggests he should keep running.

Next, batting average. Garcia flashed excellent plate discipline with a 24.4% chase rate and 7.7% SwStr%, giving him room to improve his 22.3% K% and 7.4% BB%. Naturally, fewer strikeouts would help his average rise. Garcia's 91.8 mph average exit velocity ranked in the 87th percentile, so he hits the ball hard enough to work his share of walks.

Garcia also projects as a high BABIP guy thanks to his plus speed and low number of fly balls. He consistently posted high LD% marks on the farm, making his 24.6% LD% and .344 BABIP with the Royals look more sustainable, too.

Garcia projects as Kansas City's leadoff man, so he should score plenty of runs while logging the PAs needed for batting average and on-base percentage to help a fantasy team. Kansas City's offense is better than you think, so being a Royal isn't a downside.

Garcia offers positional flexibility as well with 104 games at 3B, 14 at SS, and four at 2B. The overall package feels a lot like Whit Merrifield when he first came up, except Garcia is younger with more prospect shine. He's a Champ outside the top 200.

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