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Rick Lucks takes a deep look into the prospects of 2B Cavan Biggio (Toronto Blue Jays) and 3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (also Blue Jays) in fantasy baseball redraft leagues for 2020. Do they project to provide value based on current ADP?
The Toronto Blue Jays are an intriguing team. Projections don't love them, but their lineup is filled with young guys who have the potential to exceed them. Their rotation also looks solid if healthy, something that may be more likely now that a full workload will be more like 120 IP than 200.
Needless to say, this upside translates well to the fantasy arena. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is likely the first name that comes to mind, but his underlying peripherals suggest that 2020 may not be his breakout year. Owners in redraft leagues may be better served by looking at some of the team's other players, such as Cavan Biggio.
Biggio's ADP is twice Vladito's at the time of writing, so it seems as though the fantasy community still prefers the latter. Here is why this author disagrees.
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Cavan Biggio (2B, TOR)
ADP: 127
Biggio had a great under-the-radar 2019 season, slashing .234/.364/.429 with 16 HR and 14 SB (against zero CS) in 430 PAs. He added another six homers and five steals in 174 PAs at Triple-A last year, suggesting that a 20/20 pace is well within Biggio's reach this season.
Biggio put up loud numbers throughout his MiLB career, but he never got much traction on prospect lists because scouts didn't like him. Here are his scouting grades on the 20-80 scouting scale according to FanGraphs:
The league-average for each tool is 50, so Biggio is projected to offer league-average power and below-average everything else. Statcast suggests that scouts missed on his speed, as his 28.3 ft./sec Sprint Speed was already above-average. Another problem with the scouting consensus is that it completely overlooks Biggio's elite plate discipline.
Biggio walked at an astounding 16.5% rate a season ago, a number completely supported by a 15.8% chase rate that led all big leaguers with at least 400 PAs. His strikeout rate was ugly (28.6%), but that had more to do with passivity at the plate (35.9 Swing%) than a problem making contact (8.7 SwStr%). Biggio also walked (19.5 BB%) more often than he struck out (16.1 K%) at Triple-A. Passive batters tend to strikeout more often than their SwStr% suggests they should, but Biggio should still be able to dramatically improve his K% in 2020.
Biggio's power indicators weren't special last season, as his 91.8 mph average airborne exit velocity ranked below the league-average while his 9% rate of Brls/BBE was slightly above. However, Biggio makes up for a lack of raw oomph with an incredibly high FB% (47%). The Rogers Centre helps average power play up, as does Biggio's 28.4 Pull% on fly balls. Biggio has a good chance of producing at a 20-25 HR pace but minimal upside beyond that. Considering he should produce steals as well, that's more than enough to make him a worthwhile fantasy asset.
Biggio's high FB% hurts his BABIP potential, but he still posted a .307 mark last season thanks to a 27.6 LD%. Biggio is probably not a true-talent 27 LD% guy, so regression should be expected. That said, Biggio posted a very low 3.7 IFFB% that should mean his FB% doesn't hurt his average as much as a guy like Joey Gallo or Rhys Hoskins. Biggio pulls enough grounders (72.9% of them) for the shift to hurt his average as well, but his wheels should help in this regard (.308 in 186 PAs against the shift last year).
Biggio is slated to hit second in Toronto's lineup, so he should have plenty of opportunities to rack up counting stats. His 127 ADP puts him in a price range with question marks on the mound (Dinelson Lamet, Eduardo Rodriguez, Shohei Ohtani) and one-dimensional sluggers (Yuli Gurriel, Trey Mancini), making Biggio a great four-category producer at a price point where that can be tough to find.
Verdict: Champ (based on a blend of power, speed, and OBP outside the top 100)
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (3B, TOR)
ADP: 64
Vladito led MLB in hype last season, but his season (.272/.339/.433 with 15 HR in 514 PAs) will not be cited as an example of a minor leaguer who is ready for the bigs by the MLBPA. Toronto promoted their prized prospect aggressively, so much so that opposing pitchers never really had a chance to develop a book on him until he reached the Show. As a result, Vladito will likely need at least a couple of years to blossom into the guy scouts see.
To be clear, scouts love Vladito. Here are his FanGraphs scouting grades:
Unfortunately, his peripheral stats don't come anywhere close to living up to these excellent grades. His 93.2 mph average airborne exit velocity and 7.7% rate of Brls/BBE were only slightly above average last year. Both numbers also played down due to a low 33.1 FB% and high 14.5 IFFB%, suggesting that a swing change will be necessary to unlock Vladito's power potential.
Vladito also posted a low 17.3 LD% in 2019. While it's too soon to say that he is definitively a low-LD% guy, a low rate may prevent him from reaching the BABIP heights he achieved on the farm. Likewise, his plate discipline looked good (8.9 BB% against 17.7 K%) but was backed by only middling peripherals (31.6% chase rate, 10.6 SwStr%). Vladito only had an xBA of .263 in 2019, so batting average growth will not be automatic.
Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is currently being taken around aces like Yu Darvish (61 ADP) and Tyler Glasnow (68.4), slugging first basemen like Paul Goldschmidt (60) and Matt Olson (62), and unique talents like Max Muncy (68.4) and Joey Gallo (73). Vladito will need to hit more homers than he did last season to match these guys, but he doesn't have the batting average cushion to add flies to his profile without dragging down the category. He can't run at all (26.3 ft./sec Statcast Sprint Speed), so steals likely won't be a part of any breakout either.
He is slated to begin the year as Toronto's cleanup hitter, but they won't hesitate to make a switch if he struggles again. While you're better off taking Vlad over Biggio if they both reach their full potential this year, most scenarios involve Biggio outperforming his teammate in fantasy this year.
Verdict: Chump (based on the growth required just to break even on his current cost)
