RADIO
Texas Rangers outfielder Adolis Garcia is a fantasy baseball bust and overvalued draft target for the 2022 season. Kipp Heisterman explains why Garcia should be faded in fantasy drafts at his current ADP.
The Texas Rangers finished the 2021 season with a record of 60-102, which ranked them in last place in the AL West division. The 60 wins were the third-lowest total in Major League Baseball but were not all that surprising as the Rangers were expected to struggle for much of the season.
Although the Rangers had an abysmal season in 2021, they did have some bright spots on their roster in terms of young talent. Guys like Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Nathaniel Lowe, and Adolis Garcia all performed above expectations. The Rangers have since added pieces to the mix, including Kole Calhoun, Marcus Semien, Jon Gray, and most notably Corey Seager. These signings along with the youth movement created last season are what gives the Ranger faithful hope heading into 2022.
One of the biggest outbreaks for the Rangers in 2021 was the emergence of Adolis Garcia. He was largely unknown heading into 2021 and ended up finishing the season with a whopping 31 home runs, 90 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. The question for Garcia and fantasy players heading into 2022 is whether or not he can repeat or even improve upon his 2021 season. A deep look into his advanced metrics should be able to tell us whether 2021 was his coming-out party or if he is just another flash in the pan.
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Adolis Gar-see-ya?
Adolis Garcia burst onto the scene in 2021 by slashing .243/.286/.454 with 31 home runs, 90 RBI, 16 stolen bases, and 77 runs scored. This performance was strong enough to rank him fourth in AL Rookie of the Year voting. The problem is that his season was the tale of two halves.
Garcia had a tremendous first half of 2021 in which he slashed .270/.312/.527 with 22 home runs, 62 RBI, and eight stolen bases before the All-Star break. He then followed that up with a pedestrian .211/.256/.370 slash line with just nine home runs and 28 RBI after the All-Star break. This appears to be the case of a player who was figured out by pitchers in the second half as he was unable to adjust down the stretch.
On the season. he posted a miserable .186 AVG and .310 xBA against offspeed pitches while also posting a 38.4% whiff rate against the pitch. Overall, he posted a K rate of 32.1%, which was ranked in the bottom five percent of the league. He also paired this with an abysmal 5.1% walk rate, which ranked in the bottom six percent of the league. He then continued to post an xBA that ranked him in the bottom 11% of the league as well as an xwOBA in the bottom 20% of the league.
We are talking about a guy that had a breakout first half of the season, but has a ton (!) of swing and miss in his game and does not counteract that in the slightest with the ability to get on base via the walk; a terrible combination.
We also do not have much of a track record to go off of in the majors with Garcia as he posted just a combined 24 plate appearances before 2021. In the minors, Garcia was a career .266 hitter with a K rate of 26% and a walk rate of just five percent. This tells us his first half of 2021 could likely be an outlier. He also plays in a stadium that ranked 22nd in the league in terms of overall park factor. While the lineup will be improved in 2022, it is not likely enough to give Garcia the boost we would want to justify selecting him at his current ADP.
Conclusion
Overall, Garcia showed a lot of promise in the first half of the season but struggled mightily in the second half. This is a guy that does not have a superb track record in the minors for us to rely on for those first-half results moving forward. While he may not be as bad as his second half of 2021 suggests, he almost certainly is not as good as his 2021 first half.
Garcia is currently boasting an ADP of 156 and is the 45th outfielder off the board. This means he is being selected in the 13th round of 12-team mixed leagues, which quite frankly, seems a bit too early given his second-half struggles. He should be faded at this ADP and fantasy managers should look to select a guy like Akil Baddoo who is going a full round later in drafts.
