X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Gain Access Now

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

Dynasty Price Check - Adam Thielen

Phil Clark looks at Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Adam Thielen and his dynasty value heading into the 2020 fantasy football season. Is he a WR to buy, sell, or hold?

Many of you have already begun planning and building your 2020 rosters. This includes best ball owners who have assembled teams in that popular format. A number of owners in redraft leagues are inspecting the early rankings, while those of you who are involved in dynasty leagues have continued your process of relentless roster evaluation.

As the ever-present temptation to tweak your dynasty rosters remains intact, you must determine whether to proceed with the current components of your team or make modifications to your assortment of players. The team at RotoBaller is aware of your ongoing management process and is building an arsenal of material that will boost your efforts in constructing your teams.

Our growing collection of dynasty price check articles is designed to help your decision-making process when determining the current value of your players. That includes this breakdown of Adam Thielen, as he enters his seventh season. It is created with the premise that you are participating in a 12-team league with 0.5 PPR scoring, along with roster requirements that include starting 1 quarterback.

Be sure to check all of our fantasy football rankings for 2025:

 

Profile

Team: Minnesota Vikings
College:  Minnesota State-Mankato
Age: 29
Height/Weight: 6'2", 200 pounds
Undrafted Free Agent: 2013

 

From Practice Squad to Pro Bowl

Thielen’s pathway to relevance was not readily accessible when he signed with Minnesota in 2013. He remained on the practice squad throughout that season, before elevating to special teams on the 53-man roster during his second year. After accumulating just 31 targets, 20 receptions and 281 yards in 2014-2015, Thielen’s usage and production rose substantially during 2016 (92 targets/69 receptions/967 yards). He exceeded 1,000 snaps in 2017 (1,032) while vaulting to WR8 in scoring, ninth in targets (147), eighth in receptions (91), and fifth in receiving yards (1,276). Thielen also earned a selection to the first of two consecutive Pro Bowl appearances and was named second-team All-Pro.

His output improved further during 2018, as he finished sixth in targets (153), fourth in receptions (113), eighth in yardage (1,373) and eighth in touchdowns (9). He also led the league in targets (96/12 per game) entering Week 9, which was bolstered by double-digit totals during each of his first seven contests. But that average dropped to 7.1 per game from Weeks 9-17, including a precipitous plunge to 4.8 per game from Weeks 14-17. The reduction in targets also created a decline in his production from Weeks 1-8 (74 receptions-9.25 per game/925 yards-115.6 per game), to just 39 receptions (4.9 per game) and 448 yards (56 per game) from Weeks 9-17.

His season-long numbers remained highly favorable as he combined with teammate Stefon Diggs for 302 targets, 215 receptions, 2,394 yards, and 18 touchdowns during their 2018 matchups. But that did not alter the legitimate reason for concern about his diminished usage and production as the season progressed. 

The Vikings’ 67.3% pass play percentage dropped to 49.7% during the team’s last three contests, which corresponded with the ascension of Kevin Stefanski into the offensive coordinator position. This escalating penchant for the ground game foreshadowed the transformed run/pass ratio that would ensue during the 2019 regular season. It also presented one of two massive obstacles that Thielen encountered during 2019 which impeded his ability to match the numbers that he had attained in 2017-2018.

 

Career Ascension Is Halted

Minnesota’s preponderance of rushing attempts blended with a lingering hamstring injury to place a sizable constraint on his 2019 production. Only three teams ran the ball with greater frequency than Minnesota during 2019, as the Viking relied upon the ground game on 48.3% of their offensive plays. This resulted in an average of 29.8 rushes per game, which propelled the Vikings to sixth in rushing (133.3 yards per game). However, the consistent usage of Dalvin Cook (17.9 attempts per game) also decreased the team’s reliance on their passing attack, which ranked 23rd overall (220.2 yards per game).

The Vikings’ penchant for the run also limited Minnesota to 29.1 passing attempts per game as San Francisco and Tennessee were the only two teams that averaged fewer passes per game. Kirk Cousins had launched 606 passes during 2018, which was the NFL’s fourth-highest total (37.9 per game). But 23 other signal-callers generated more attempts than Cousins’ in 2019 (444/27.8 per game). This dramatically impacted Thielen’s usage during the 10 matchups in which he was available.

Thielen’s target and yardage totals placed him third behind teammates Diggs and Cook during 2019, while Thielen dropped to sixth in receptions behind Diggs (67), Cook (62), tight ends Kyle Rudolph (39) and Irv Smith Jr. (36), and rookie wide receiver Olabisi Johnson (31). Thielen also registered an 11% team target share, along with a 17.8 share of his team’s air yards. Both averages decreased considerably from his 2018 averages (25.9/33.5).

Cousins’ red zone passing also diminished from the league’s 11th highest number of attempts (72) to 52 attempts last season - which placed him just 27th overall. That also impacted Thielen’s level of opportunity near the goal line, as he received just six targets (12.5%) after finishing sixth among all wide receivers with 21 targets in 2018 (29.6%). Cook ascended into the preferred red zone option, as he finished fifth overall with 47 rushing attempts inside the 20. This was a substantial increase from the team-best 22 carries that had been allotted to Latavius Murray in 2018.

This unwavering commitment to the rushing attack also had an immediate effect on Thielen’s ability to deliver fantasy points, as he entered Week 4 averaging 5.3 targets and 3.7 receptions per game. Those averages did rise in Weeks 4-6 (7.3 targets/5.0 receptions per game). But Thielen’s hamstring issue emerged during the first half of Minnesota’s NFC North matchup with Detroit in Week 7. This kept him affixed to the sidelines for six different games while limiting him to only 16 snaps from Weeks 7-14. The degeneration of Thielen's usage and production from 2017-2018 to last season are displayed below.

 

Year Targets Per Game

Targets

Receptions Yards

TDs

2019

4.8

48 30 418 6

2018

9.6 153 113 1373

9

2017 8.9 142 91 1276

4

 

Competition For Targets

While Thielen is firmly rooted as an integral component within Minnesota’s aerial efforts, Diggs also remains a vital component within the team’s passing attack. He led the Vikings in each major category (94 targets/63 receptions/1,130 receiving yards) and did not experience the same degree of a statistical downturn as Thielen. But the extensive dependence on rushing did result in a decline with Diggs' numbers when compared to his 2018 results. He still managed to finish 15th in receiving yardage and was second overall in 12.0 yards per target (12.0), and percentage share of team’s air yards (41.6). Diggs also finished 10th in targeted air yards (14.9). However, he was just 34th in targets and 30th in receptions.

Despite some conjecture regarding the prospects of a trade involving Diggs, he remains under contract after signing a five-year extension in 2018. Minnesota would also absorb a $9 million cap hit by moving Diggs to another team. This increases the likelihood that he will remain with the Vikings unless the relationship between Diggs and the organization degenerates considerably.

Minnesota’s running backs were fourth in team target share percentage (28.1), while Cook was ninth among backs in targets (63), eighth in receptions (53), and fourth in receiving yards (519) before being sidelined in Weeks 16-17 (shoulder). Cook also led the Vikings in targets (26/6.5 per game), receptions (21), and receiving yards (235) during a four-game stretch (Weeks 8-11).

Only three tight ends accumulated more touchdowns than Rudolph during 2019 (6). But he was only 29th at his position in targets (48), 19th in receptions and 25th in yardage (367). Smith was second among rookie tight ends in receptions (36). and fourth in targets (47), and receiving yards (311).

 

Thielen’s Current Value

The stability and high production that Thielen provided for his owners in 2017-2018 were not sustained during 2019. While the protracted hamstring issue clearly impacted his season-long numbers, the results that he had accrued prior to the injury (38 targets/26 receptions/366 yards) placed him considerably behind the league-leading pace that he had forged through the same Week 1-6 span in 2018 (79 targets/58 receptions/712 yards).

This supplies the rationale for a level of uneasiness as he enters his seventh season, as Thielen’s statistical decline has ushered his value to a region below the high-end WR2 territory that had been attained previously. That is also indicated by his Round 6 ADP (62) after he had attained an ADP in 2019 that approached the periphery of Round 2 (25). Thielen will also turn 30 in late August and is running routes within an offense that is dedicated to running the ball.

However, Thielen remains entrenched as a starter for Minnesota and should regain his status as a primary receiving option for Cousins. He does not have a track record of protracted injuries and is a candidate to improve upon last year’s disappointing results. This remains the case even if he only matches the pace that he attained prior to his injury, as that would have placed him 29th in targets and 27th in yardage throughout 16-games last season (101 targets/976 yards). That presents you with justification for retaining him on your roster. However, if you are predisposed toward trading him, you should not do so unless you can procure a pick in the middle of Round 1.




POPULAR FANTASY TOOLS

Expert Advice
Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Draft Rankings
Draft Simulator
Enter League Settings
Value Picks
Compare Any Players
News and Alerts

REAL-TIME FANTASY NEWS

Hunter Cranton54 mins ago

Sidelined With Concussion
Ryan Lasko1 hour ago

Hits Seven-Day Injured List
Francis Pena1 hour ago

Headed To Extended Spring Training
Matt Vierling2 hours ago

Cleared To Start Throwing Program
C.J. Culpepper2 hours ago

Hits Injured List, Having Trouble Increasing Workload
Bryce Eldridge2 hours ago

Placed On Double-A Injured List
Gleyber Torres2 hours ago

Might Not Need A Rehab Assignment
Jake Rogers2 hours ago

Scratched With Oblique Tightness
Manuel Margot2 hours ago

Tigers Place Manuel Margot On 10-Day Injured List With Knee Inflammation
Jonny DeLuca2 hours ago

Rays Place Jonny DeLuca On 10-Day Injured List With Shoulder Strain
Royce Lewis2 hours ago

Weeks Away From Starting Rehab Assignment
David Peterson2 hours ago

Lined Up To Start On Saturday
Cody Bellinger2 hours ago

Out Tuesday With Food Poisoning
Zach Neto4 hours ago

Continues Strong Rehab Assignment
Adam Ottavino4 hours ago

Designated for Assignment
Walker Jenkins5 hours ago

Off To Slow Start After Ankle Injury
Fernando Tatis Jr.5 hours ago

Goes Yard To Secure Victory
Termarr Johnson5 hours ago

Healthy To Start Double-A Season
Robert Suarez5 hours ago

Earns League-Leading Fifth Save
Gabriel Gonzalez5 hours ago

Swinging A Hot Bat At High-A
Mark Vientos5 hours ago

Is Struggling Early In The Season
RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP
10
10
11
11
12
19
13
22
14
24
15
25
16
29
17
39
18
40
19
41

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Jordan Lawlar - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookies

Top 25 Fantasy Baseball Prospects to Stash (Redraft): Eric Cross' Rookie Rankings for Week 2

With Low-A, High-A, and Double-A starting this past Friday, we now have all four minor league levels in full swing as thousands of players aim to become fantasy-relevant players. Or just reaching the Majors in general. Same thing. We had several notable prospect promotions last week, including Chase Dollander and Zac Veen getting the call […]


Dylan Cease - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB DFS Picks

MLB DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel Expert Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Today (4/8/25)

It's a cold day, RotoBallers, and I'm ready with the Tuesday edition of our MLB DFS picks. I'll be giving my insight every week on this day to help you cash in your DFS contests, and hopefully, I will be able to provide more as the summer comes. Tonight, we have 10 games to look […]


Chris Sale - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Starts and Sits - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball (April 7 - April 13)

The MLB season is off and running, and so are we with our starting pitcher starts/sits for fantasy baseball Week 2- Monday, April 7 through Sunday, April 13. We've gotten a couple of looks at most pitchers by now, but the sample size remains small, which means we remain diligent! Bookmark us for every start/sit option […]


Dennis Santana - Fantasy Baseball Closers, Waiver Wire Pickups, Bullpens and Saves

Champ or Chump: Dennis Santana, Jonathan India, Clay Holmes Fantasy Baseball Outlooks

We've reached the second week of the 2025 MLB season, and as expected, Rafael Devers is not the worst player in the league. Players have twice as many games played (or more) than they did this time last week, but we're still working with tiny samples. You shouldn't blindly overreact to this season's stat lines. […]


Kris Bubic - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Are You For Real? Surprising Fantasy Baseball Pitcher Starts From Tyler Mahle, Kris Bubic, Kumar Rocker

Welcome back to the "Are You For Real?" series as we dive into Week 1 of the 2025 fantasy baseball season. It feels so good to be back! For those who are not familiar, this is a weekly column where we take starting pitchers who had surprisingly good starts over the past week and put […]


Quinn Mathews - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Draft Sleepers, MLB Rookie Rankings

Top-5 MLB Pitching Prospects To Stash For Fantasy Baseball Redraft Leagues - Week 2 (2025)

Welcome back to our top starting pitcher fantasy baseball prospects to stash for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. Even though the regular season has just started, there is no better time to look ahead and identify high-upside stashes. Last season, we saw several prospect pitchers become league-winners as soon as they reached the […]


Luis Garcia - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

The Cut List - Time to Let Go? Who To Consider Dropping for Fantasy Baseball (Week 2)

Welcome back to a new season of The Cut List as we head into Week 2 of the 2025 season. For every add, there is usually also a drop. For those who are not familiar, this is our weekly article looking at players whom fantasy managers might be considering cutting from their teams and struggling […]


When Will Grayson Rodriguez, Brandon Woodruff, George Kirby Return? Fantasy Baseball Injury Update

We are over a week into the MLB regular season, and fantasy baseball is off to a flying start for many squads. Like MLB teams, it's been a bumpy start for some fantasy teams. One contributing factor to many slow starts is injuries to key players. Specifically, starting pitcher injuries can be hard to overcome […]


Tyler Soderstrom - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News

Dynasty Fantasy Baseball Risers, Fallers and Buys/Sells - Chris Clegg's Outlooks for Week 2

Welcome back RotoBallers to my dynasty fantasy baseball risers, fallers and buys/sells for Week 2 of the 2025 MLB season. We are just one week into the MLB season and three games into most minor league levels, but there is still plenty of baseball to talk about. I mean, we have already had some prospects […]


Corbin Carroll - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB News, Draft Kit

MLB DFS: DraftKings, FanDuel Expert Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks For Today (4/7/25)

Welcome back, RotoBallers! My name is Brandon, and this is my debut with the MLB team! You can find me and my work with the NHL and Soccer teams, respectively! Tonight, we have a seven-game slate, and the currently live top-three highest implied team totals are: San Diego with 4.7, Arizona with 4.5, and New […]


Riley Greene - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB News

Fantasy Baseball Players To Watch For The Week Ahead (April 7 - April 13)

With the first week in the books, welcome back to my weekly Players to Watch for the Week Ahead series for 2025 as we look ahead to the week of April 7 - April 13. In this article, I'll look at players like Logan O'Hoppe, Riley Greene, Spencer Schwellenbach, and others. For those who are not […]


Felix Bautista - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Well-Known Fantasy Baseball Players - Drop, Hold, or Sell Low for Week 2? (2025)

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our weekly article about well-known fantasy baseball players. During each week of the fantasy season, we will identify which big-time players are in a slump and determine what we should do with them in fantasy (drop, hold, or sell low). These difficult decisions could be the difference in winning your matchups every […]


Ben Rice - Fantasy Baseball Prospects, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Fantasy Baseball Frauds? Buy/Sell On Standout Performers Including Chris Bassitt, Ben Rice, Kris Bubic, Carson Kelly, more

Welcome, RotoBallers, to our weekly fantasy baseball frauds and buys/sells article. Each Monday, we go through several players coming off a solid week in fantasy. Then, we'll determine if we should be buying or selling these players heading into the following week. The first edition of this article saw several players get off to fast starts, including Wilyer Abreu, Spencer […]