Adam Koffler's PPR Rankings vs. RotoBaller Consensus

Adam Koffler provides his preseason draft rankings for PPR fantasy football leagues in comparison to RotoBaller consensus for 2021 to explain who he is higher or lower on.

Adam Koffler's PPR Rankings, updated as of 8/13/2021. Below you'll find my tiered rankings by position compared to the RotoBaller consensus staff rankings.

In this article, I'll highlight a handful of players at each position that I like more than the consensus and a handful of players I like less than the consensus. I'll explain my reasoning for each player and hopefully provide you with another perspective as you head into your fantasy football draft.

Remember, these are full-PPR rankings, thus bumping up high-volume pass-catchers and running backs that are utilized in the passing game.

Editor's Note: Access RotoBaller’s trusted fantasy football rankings for PPR, Standard, Dynasty, Super Flex, and Best Ball formats. Get tiered cheat sheets, expert analysis, and player outlooks to dominate your draft from every angle.

Quarterback Rankings

QBs I'm Higher On

Kyler Murray (+3) should be the first quarterback off the board in fantasy football leagues, especially those that reward just four points per passing touchdown. Last season, Murray rushed 133 times for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. That alone netted him more fantasy points per game than Chase Edmonds, Leonard Fournette, Latavius Murray, Devin Singletary, and Gus Edwards. The Cardinals ran the third-most plays per game in 2020 (67.7), meaning Murray should have plenty of opportunities to produce both on the ground and through the air. Arizona also bolstered its wide receiver corps, adding veteran A.J. Green and rookie Rondale Moore to the mix.

Head coach Kliff Kingsbury said recently he wants Murray to get back to "running more" in 2021. It's not out of the realm of possibility Kyler becomes the first quarterback in NFL history to pass for 4,000 yards and rush for 1,000 yards in the newly extended 17-game season.

Trey Lance (+9) would be a sure-fire QB1 in most people's rankings if he were named the starting quarterback for Week 1. That's why I have him so high in my rankings. It's only a matter of time before Jimmy Garoppolo falters or gets hurt and Lance takes over. Not only is Lance a polished passer, but he's also got the rushing upside similar to Jalen Hurts. In his sophomore season at North Dakota State, he rushed 169 times for 1,100 yards and 14 touchdowns. Granted it's the Missouri Valley Conference, but Lance can still scoot. Recall, Cam Newton finished as the QB16 last season despite throwing just eight touchdowns and 10 interceptions.

Cam Newton (+4) falls into the same category of dual-threat quarterbacks that don't have a "perceived" stranglehold on the starting job. For all intents and purposes, he's competing with rookie Mac Jones for the starting gig, thus suppressing his consensus ranking. The Patriots went out and spent a lot of money on offensive weapons such as Nelson Agholor, Jonnu Smith, and Hunter Henry, so if Newton can hold off Jones for most of the season, he will pay big dividends for those that waited on a quarterback.

QBs I'm Lower On

Baker Mayfield (-3) plays for a run-first Cleveland Browns team that ranked 21st last season in plays per game (63.7). Add in the fact that the Browns don't play a "warm weather" game after Week 5 of the regular season in 2021. From Week 6 on, they play in Cleveland, Cincinnati, New England, Baltimore, Green Bay, and Pittsburgh. This bodes well for the running game, but not so much for Mayfield and the Browns pass-catchers.

Trevor Lawrence (-3) should turn out to be a really good NFL quarterback, but this Jacksonville team is designed to run the football with Urban Meyer at the helm. James Robinson, Carlos Hyde, and Travis Etienne figure to get a lot of work, while Lawrence operates as more of a game manager in his rookie season. I like his upside a lot in dynasty leagues, but for redraft, I'm likely going to be going a safer route than Lawrence.

Running Back Rankings

RBs I'm Higher On

Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+4) enters the 2021 season with a clean bill of health and a full offseason of preparation, two things that set him back a bit in his rookie season. He'll be running behind a much improved offensive line and won't have to fend off Le'Veon Bell for snaps. Instead, it'll be 30-year old Jerick McKinnon and career backup Darrel Williams. CEH is also inevitably in for positive touchdown regression after scoring just every 47 opportunities. Compare that to 2018 when Kareem Hunt scored every 15.4 opportunities, and 2018/2019 when Damien Williams scored every 17.1 opportunities. Don't let a featured back who thrives as a pass-catcher on one of the most explosive offenses in the league slip through your hands in the early second round.

Myles Gaskin (+3) averaged more red zone carries per game (3.4) than Jonathan Taylor, Ezekiel Elliott, Nick Chubb, and David Montgomery last season. When he played, he played a lot and got a lot of touches. In fact, Gaskin had 19+ touches in six of 10 games played last season. He played on 70% of the snaps in five of those six games. From everything we've heard in training camp, this looks to be Gaskin's backfield until further notice. Not to mention teams won't be able to stack the box as much with Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle stretching the field.

Chase Edmonds (+4) is the Cardinals running back I'm more interested in despite the higher acquisition cost. Edmonds averaged a career-high in rush attempts (6.1) and targets (4.2) per game last season even with Kenyan Drake averaging 15.9 rush attempts per game. The Cardinals replaced Drake with former Steelers RB James Conner, who hasn't exactly been the epitome of health the last three seasons, missing an average of four games per season. Last season, he averaged just 13 carries per game. Add in the fact that Kingsbury has been singing Edmonds' praises all offseason, calling him an "every-down" back on multiple occasions. In a PPR league, you want the upside of the pass-catching back, and that will most definitely be Edmonds for the Cardinals in 2021. Oh, and he's also playing for a new contract.

RBs I'm Lower On

Nick Chubb (-4) has a much lower ceiling in PPR formats than he does in standard scoring or even half-PPR formats. In the last two seasons, Chubb has averaged just 1.8 targets per game in 12 games both Kareem Hunt and Odell Beckham Jr. played. He also only played on over 65% of the snaps in three of those 12 games. Granted he has the ability to go for 150 yards and two touchdowns in any one game, but the upside is capped in full-PPR. Chubb is a very safe pick after the top-10 running backs are off the board, but there are other guys I prefer in the same range (Clyde Edwards-Helaire and Joe Mixon) due to their involvement in the passing game.

Mike Davis (-6) has a nice opportunity to take the reigns as the Falcons' lead back this season, but that doesn't get me overly excited. Not only is he 28 years old, but he's not likely to see the targets he saw in Carolina last season in Christian McCaffrey's absence. Todd Gurley averaged just 2.3 targets per game as the "lead" back last season in Atlanta, and it's possible we see something similar from Davis in 2021. He's averaging under 4.0 yards per carry throughout his career, and could just as easily lose the starting job as he could hold onto it. Hard pass for me this season.

Wide Receiver Rankings

WRs I'm Higher On

Justin Jefferson (+4) started 14 games his rookie season (OlaBisi Johnson technically started Weeks 1 and 2). From Week 3 on, Jefferson averaged 18.7 PPR points per game, which was more than both A.J. Brown and DeAndre Hopkins. He was fourth amongst all wide receivers in target share (27.4%). Look for him to break away from Adam Thielen as the very clear-cut WR1 in Minnesota, cementing himself as a potential top-5 wide receiver in his sophomore campaign.

Chase Claypool (+15) ranked 15th overall in fantasy points per route run his rookie season. At 6'4", 227 lbs, he's a physical specimen who should play on a higher percentage of snaps this season compared to last season when he played on just an average of 65% of the snaps. And he's amongst some really impressive company as a rookie...

Corey Davis (+12) was given a three-year, $37.5M contract by the New York Jets to be their WR1 for rookie quarterback Zach Wilson. He's already getting rave reviews during training camp and should be heavily targeted on a team that figures to play from behind more often than not. What he did in Tennessee last season shouldn't go unnoticed either, but that was as the consistent No. 2 option behind A.J. Brown. The former fifth overall pick in 2017 finally gets a chance to prove he was worth the high draft pick as a true WR1.

WRs I'm Lower On

Mike Evans (-6) saw a career-low 6.8 targets per game last season. Compare that to the 2019 season when he saw 9.1 targets per game. He still managed to finish as the WR11 in PPR leagues, but that was due to a career-best 13 touchdowns. Evans caught a touchdown every 8.4 targets last season. In 2016 when Evans saw a career-high 173 targets, he caught a touchdown every 14.4 targets. It's going to be very hard for him to replicate his hyper-efficient 2020 season on what is projected to be another decrease in volume in 2021.

Kenny Golladay (-10) spent most of last season with the Lions injured. He played in just five games and is now already nursing a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for most of training camp. Daniel Jones isn't a great quarterback, and the Giants enter the 2021 season with a number of formidable pass-catchers, including Saquon Barkley, Evan Engram, Sterling Shepard, and Darius Slayton. I tend to stay away from injured players on new teams as they are faced with fighting not one, but two uphill battles.

Will Fuller (-13) has yet to practice for the Dolphins in training camp. He's another guy that has a rich injury history in his relatively short NFL career. He's missed an average of 5.4 games per season, and now has a new obstacle of learning to play in an entirely new offense with a completely different style of quarterback in Tua Tagovailoa. Fuller will now be competing with a number of legitimate pass-catching weapons, including DeVante Parker, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Gesicki, Lynn Bowden Jr., and even training camp standout star Albert Wilson. The arrow is trending down for Fuller, especially if he can't ever get healthy.

Tight End Rankings

TEs I'm Higher On

T.J. Hockenson (+2) has been the Lions' "best target in camp...and it's not close." Instead of Kenny Golladay and Marvin Jones Jr., he'll now be competing for targets with Tyrell Williams, Breshad Perriman, and rookie Amon-Ra St. Brown. These guys aren't awful, but Hockenson is clearly developing early chemistry with Jared Goff, who figures to throw to his tight end quite often in 2021. 150 targets is within reach.

Logan Thomas (+3) is poised to take another step forward in 2021. Per Scott Barrett, Thomas ran 609 routes last season, just two less than Stefon Diggs and good for 9th-most amongst all receivers. This was also more than Travis Kelce and Darren Waller. For all intents and purposes, Thomas is a receiver disguised as a tight end. Curtis Samuel has yet to practice for his new team as he's been dealing with an injury along with COVID-19 protocols. Every report on Thomas in training camp has been glowingly positive. Expect big things from him in 2021.

TEs I'm Lower On

Mike Gesicki (-6) is a solid player with a nice athletic profile. But the Dolphins upgraded the pass-catchers in the offseason by adding Will Fuller and Jaylen Waddle. He only caught 53 balls on 85 targets last season and saw five or fewer targets in nine of 15 games played. His production was salvaged by scoring six touchdowns, but Gesicki's floor is far lower this season than it was in years past with fewer offensive weapons to contend with. In PPR formats, I'd prefer a guy like Evan Engram who has a chance to catch 75+ balls this season.

Rob Gronkowski (-6) played as well as he possibly could coming out of retirement last season, totaling 45 receptions for 623 yards and seven touchdowns. But once Antonio Brown joined the team in Week 9 last season, Gronk saw his snap share and target share diminish handsomely. He averaged just 2.4 receptions per game in the last eight games of the season. That's not going to get it done in a PPR league.

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